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LOL
You are arguing the symantics of the word "bubble" while gold crashes. If YOU choose to not call it a bubble, go right ahead, but pretty much everyone else in the financial community KNOWS it was a bubble and are calling it such.
Regarding real estate prices - I don't need to ask what real estate prices fell to - the info is easily online. Prices fell to 2004 levels. THAT'S a FACT - NOT 1990s levels.
In regards to "worthless hunk of metal" - again, can you not READ? Where did I EVER call it "worthless"?
And you can deny that gold is a collapsing bubble all you want - it won't stop gold from collapsing. Your argument is the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling "na, na, na" so you can drown out the truth. As I write this gold is down ANOTHER $24/ounce (1.79%). It just keeps falling and falling and falling. As I've said, I expect it will collapse down to a "pre-stock-market-crash" level of $1,100/ounce (a bit more than $250/ounce away - having already fallen close to $550/ounce) - thus it will give up ALL the gains it made since the stock market collapse and the economy tanked - maybe even more.
But keep holding on to that gold - remember, it will never be worth "nothing".
Ken
You are TOTALLY all over the place.
You keep calling gold a "bubble" but get upset when someone asks you to define "bubble".
You ignore the bottom in real estate prices by claiming that they only fell to 2004 levels.
You seem to imply that gold has SOME value but you won't come right out and say what that value is and why.
You claim to be a long term focused gold price analyst but constantly harp on TODAY'S price action...
You keep calling gold a "bubble" but get upset when someone asks you to define "bubble".
That's because you expect me to give you a DOLLAR definition of "bubble" (ie at what point does gold have to fall to, to it to be called a burst bubble) - and there IS no such definition,. Here's the definition of "Bubble" from Investopedia:
Definition of 'Bubble'
1. An economic cycle characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction.
2. A surge in equity prices, often more than warranted by the fundamentals and usually in a particular sector, followed by a drastic drop in prices as a massive selloff occurs.
3. A theory that security prices rise above their true value and will continue to do so until prices go into freefall and the bubble bursts.
Here's the economic definition of "Bubble" from Merriam-Webster:
5: a state of booming economic activity (as in a stock market) that often ends in a sudden collapse
Do you see ANYTHING in those defintions that say an investment has to return to it's "starting point" in order to be a "bubble"? - or talks about a "specific dollar value"?
You seem to imply that gold has SOME value but you won't come right out and say what that value is and why.
Can you not read?
I TOLD you I expect gold to fall to $1,100/ounce (ie back to where it was before the economy tanked) - how many times do I have to repeat that? Several analysts however think it will go much, much lower.
You claim to be a long term focused gold price analyst but constantly harp on TODAY'S price action...
That's because the trend is down, down, down. Down ANOTHER $29+ dollars TODAY. Gold peaked OVER 2 YEARS AGO and has been on an increasingly downward trend for nearly a full year now - and there is no end in sight. This is NOT something that is just about TODAY - the peak gold hit is now well over 2 years ago - and after bouncing around a bit, the trend is now clearly DOWN.
Clearly though, you don't have CLUE about any of this stuff. Remember when you made THIS post?:
Quote:
Originally Posted by clb10
You'd look less foolish if you had started this thread when gold fell to near $1,100 a few weeks ago.
I notice you conveniently forget to talk about gold's recent rise back to the $1400+ level.
What's wrong...doesn't fit your weak argument?
First of all gold DIDN'T fall to "$1,100 a few weeks ago" (it's not been at that price since late 2009 - and before that mid-2008) - it fell to $1,335 and closed at $1,358 that day - so clearly you are not even WATCHING the price of gold & apparently you have no CLUE about gold and what it's done or is doing or is going to do.
And just so you know - that LOW POINT we hit a few weeks back - the one you CLAIMED was $1,100 but was actually a close of $1,358? Well, we're now down at that general level again and have given up virtually ALL the gains of that "dead cat bounce" (You know?That rise to $1400+ you were talking about? That's evaporated again now). So much for me "looking foolish".
...and they call gold realists nuts!
Yes they do, and for good reason. And considering that you don't even seem to KNOW what the gold price is, the word "ignorant" would fit too.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 05-17-2013 at 04:51 PM..
If you don't know what a bubble is in relation to gold prices then why do you keep using the term?
Is it "just a feeling" or do you have an economic idea as to what is or what isn't a bubble?
And why do you feel gold will just fall to $1,100? That is a much higher price than the beginning of your so-called bubble.
And (*SIGH*) you just keep looking at TODAY'S prices and drawing conclusions instead of understanding the long term trends that drove gold up in the first place.
I've seen your type come and go.
They look at the daily chart and gloat and stay quiet as church mice on gold up days.
Meanwhile, I am here defending my position on gold down days because I actually know what is going on in the world...I don't just depend on a daily or weekly chart.
Still waiting for you to talk a bit about why central banks worldwide hold hundreds of TONS of gold since it serves no purpose and is just a shiny, little metal. (and please come up with something less juvenile than "tradition")
It would also be nice if you wouldn't avoid the question about crowds of people in Chinese and Indian cities clamoring to buy gold at these bargain prices.
If you invest by looking at a daily or weekly trend then you should probably let a professional invest your money.
If you don't know what a bubble is in relation to gold prices then why do you keep using the term?
Is it "just a feeling" or do you have an economic idea as to what is or what isn't a bubble?
And why do you feel gold will just fall to $1,100? That is a much higher price than the beginning of your so-called bubble.
And (*SIGH*) you just keep looking at TODAY'S prices and drawing conclusions instead of understanding the long term trends that drove gold up in the first place.
I've seen your type come and go.
They look at the daily chart and gloat and stay quiet as church mice on gold up days.
Meanwhile, I am here defending my position on gold down days because I actually know what is going on in the world...I don't just depend on a daily or weekly chart.
Still waiting for you to talk a bit about why central banks worldwide hold hundreds of TONS of gold since it serves no purpose and is just a shiny, little metal. (and please come up with something less juvenile than "tradition")
It would also be nice if you wouldn't avoid the question about crowds of people in Chinese and Indian cities clamoring to buy gold at these bargain prices.
If you invest by looking at a daily or weekly trend then you should probably let a professional invest your money.
And how does the definition of a bubble not relate to gold.
And please stop comically telling us you know how the world works when you spend a lot of time on this highly cerebral city data forum. Are we really to believe that a person who has "figured" out the world would be wasting their time here.... Or you just dispensing us peons with knowledge...
And how does the definition of a bubble not relate to gold.
And please stop comically telling us you know how the world works when you spend a lot of time on this highly cerebral city data forum. Are we really to believe that a person who has "figured" out the world would be wasting their time here.... Or you just dispensing us peons with knowledge...
1. Yeah, actually attempting to debate the issues brought up in the video would have been a no win situation for you so just dismiss it as "duh!! yOuTuBe vIdEo" so you don't look too foolish.
2. If you had been following along it is the guy who calls himself "Lord" who says that you can't define the gold bubble but you know its there because it is just a feeling (I guess anyway...he has yet to define the term bubble as it relates to gold prices).
3. How could I consider City-Data "higly cerebral" if you're here? I haven't (nor have I said) that I've "figured out the world". I can just read economic data. A lot of people can but for some reason they ignore what is right in front of them.
How about you? Care to address some of the questions that I've posted to the guy who calls himself "Lord"?
If you don't know what a bubble is in relation to gold prices then why do you keep using the term?
Is it "just a feeling" or do you have an economic idea as to what is or what isn't a bubble?
And why do you feel gold will just fall to $1,100? That is a much higher price than the beginning of your so-called bubble.
It's not just ME recognizing it as a bursting bubble:
"Gold is a “classic bubble” and “it wouldn’t shock me to see it back at $500″, Michael Novogratz, the president of New York hedge fund Fortress Investment Group and a former partner at Goldman Sachs (GS), said on CNBC Wednesday..".
...Last week’s decline of $91.3 the Troy ounce has been repeated overnight into this morning’s trading. This price crash clearly supports what happens when a bubble pops. COMEX gold had been above its 200-week simple moving average since the gold bubble began to inflate during the week of February 2, 2002, when this average was just $281.6 the Troy ounce. Gold is below that average this morning, which is currently at $1,435.4.
The bubble peak was $1,923.7 during the week of September 10, 2011. I have been viewing the December 2011 low at $1,523.9 as the base of the busted bubble, which held at the May 2012 lows. Since a subsequent peak at $1,798.1 in October 2012 was a lower high it seemed that trouble for the precious metal was brewing. One of my predictions for 2013 was that the gold bubble would not re-inflate..."
Reuters (the underlined part sounds like they are talking about YOU):
"Gold: The fear bubble bursts
The total amount of gold in the world, according to Thomson Reuters, is 171,300 metric tonnes, or 5.5 billion troy ounces. What that means is that every time the price of gold falls by $100 an ounce, as it did on Friday and it has done again today, the value of the world’s gold falls by more than $500 billion...
...At the end of 2012, for instance, Paulson owned 21.8 million shares of GLD. Those have sunk some 19%, or $30 per share, since then — a total loss of more than $650 million, for Paulson and his investors. But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the $1.6 trillion wiped off the value of gold more generally during the same period.
To put that number in context, the NYSE has risen 6.6% since the end of 2012, a rise in value of some $930 billion. Which means that the value of gold has been falling faster than the value of stocks has been rising. But gold is held in much more concentrated hands: most people have very little exposure to it, while a relatively small number of investors have huge allocations. As a result, the wealth effect from the fall in gold prices is likely to be felt quite acutely.
Gold is the classic zero-coupon perpetual bond: an asset whose industrial value is a tiny fraction of its cash value, and which represents, as Joe Weisenthal says, a costly failure of markets to efficiently allocate capital to where it is best invested. Goldbugs are by their nature defeatist and pessimistic; get enough of them together at the same time and they become self-fulfilling. (That’s why they tend to be so evangelical about their beliefs.)..".
Gold entered technical bear-market territory after Friday's drop, and its 9.12% plunge intraday Monday is the biggest one-day drop for the precious metal in 33 years, since March 28, 1980, when it plunged 9.94%.
If gold drops more than 9.94% it would be the biggest drop since COMEX gold futures began trading in December 1974. Gold has been in a parabolic move for years now, a bubble in search of a pin, as one analyst has noted.
What gives? Wasn’t the storyline about central bank currency printing the driver to gold soaring ever higher? That a government need never default on its debt in the currency it prints, that the way to get fake growth is to debase currency, like changing the number of ounces in a pound? That gold is as stable as cash, that the eurozone would have to print its way out of its crisis, as is the Federal Reserve?
There’s a more rounded story not being told here. Gold is only as good as its last trade, it’s only fundamental is a rising demand versus short supply story.
The gold safety trade has let investors down, too, because housing is recovering, and housing and real estate are also inflation hedges, with more gains to be had, as can equities be more productive.
That's hard to take for the gold investors who have piled into gold -- with a ballooning number of exchange traded and mutual funds making it easier to buy. But just as all those new funds have made it easier to buy gold, so too have they made it just as easy to sell.
Goldman Sachs has already warned that the gold retreat is picking up steam, as it has cut its 12-month gold forecast to $1,390 from $1,550..".
The Wall Street Journal recognized gold as a bubble well before it peaked. This article is from 2010:
"Is Gold the Next Bubble?
It's been the amazing, runaway boom of the past decade. If you'd put your money into gold at the lows about 10 years ago, you'd have made a nearly 400% return. That's left pretty much everything else—stocks, China, let alone housing—in the dust.
But with gold now trading near record highs, the big $1,200-an-ounce question is obvious.
Is the gold rush over?
Some smart people wonder. "The time to buy gold was in 1999, not 2010," Harvard professor Niall Ferguson tells The Wall Street Journal—though he added that momentum might still drive it higher. Others will tell you that "the smart money got out of gold months ago." But then people have been saying that for years..."
The list of investment pros and investment articles recognizing gold as a popping bubble goes on and on.
And (*SIGH*) you just keep looking at TODAY'S prices and drawing conclusions instead of understanding the long term trends that drove gold up in the first place.
I've seen your type come and go.
They look at the daily chart and gloat and stay quiet as church mice on gold up days.
Meanwhile, I am here defending my position on gold down days because I actually know what is going on in the world...I don't just depend on a daily or weekly chart.
Still waiting for you to talk a bit about why central banks worldwide hold hundreds of TONS of gold since it serves no purpose and is just a shiny, little metal. (and please come up with something less juvenile than "tradition")
It would also be nice if you wouldn't avoid the question about crowds of people in Chinese and Indian cities clamoring to buy gold at these bargain prices.
If you invest by looking at a daily or weekly trend then you should probably let a professional invest your money.
LOL.
Well, as I said, hang in there. Your gold will never be worth NOTHING.
Ken
If you aren't invested in gold and no one is forcing you to exchange your fiat Federal Reserve Notes for gold then why are you so passionate(ly wrong) about gold in the first place? What do you care what others do with their fiat currency?
Also, will you please make up your mind?
You are obsessed with the whole "gold is in a bubble" myth but vehemently refuse to DEFINE what YOU mean by bubble.
Either gold is a bubble and you can say EXACTLY what that entails or you're just blowing smoke.
What were all of those "expert sources" saying about house prices in 2005 or Internet stocks in 1999?
Probably the same sort of BS that they're spinning about gold right now.
What happened to gold prices after the end of 2008? Care to talk about that? No? OK.
Also, what is keeping gold from falling back to 2003 prices? "Tradition", perhaps?
1. Yeah, actually attempting to debate the issues brought up in the video would have been a no win situation for you so just dismiss it as "duh!! yOuTuBe vIdEo" so you don't look too foolish.
2. If you had been following along it is the guy who calls himself "Lord" who says that you can't define the gold bubble but you know its there because it is just a feeling (I guess anyway...he has yet to define the term bubble as it relates to gold prices).
3. How could I consider City-Data "higly cerebral" if you're here? I haven't (nor have I said) that I've "figured out the world". I can just read economic data. A lot of people can but for some reason they ignore what is right in front of them.
How about you? Care to address some of the questions that I've posted to the guy who calls himself "Lord"?
1. I watched the video. These type of videos are a dime a dozen, nothing new was said here by the gold bugs. Have you ever considered it would be in the interest of the video producer to get as many people possible to buy gold to get the price up?
2. The definition of bubble is widely known, what you are asking for, it seems, is the exact moment it became a bubble. Do we know the exact date and housing price when the housing bubble started?
If not, why would gold be different.
3. My apologies, you said "you actually know what's going on in the world". I'm glad you have the time to discuss things with us here on CD forum in between making your millions or billions.
If you aren't invested in gold and no one is forcing you to exchange your fiat Federal Reserve Notes for gold then why are you so passionate(ly wrong) about gold in the first place? What do you care what others do with their fiat currency?
Also, will you please make up your mind?
You are obsessed with the whole "gold is in a bubble" myth but vehemently refuse to DEFINE what YOU mean by bubble.
Either gold is a bubble and you can say EXACTLY what that entails or you're just blowing smoke.
What were all of those "expert sources" saying about house prices in 2005 or Internet stocks in 1999?
Probably the same sort of BS that they're spinning about gold right now.
What happened to gold prices after the end of 2008? Care to talk about that? No? OK.
Also, what is keeping gold from falling back to 2003 prices? "Tradition", perhaps?
Its real easy to look at posters history. Your gold love is clearly the result of your ideological views. Thats just a dangerous way to invest. But please, let us know how your gold investment is doing as of today.
1. I watched the video. These type of videos are a dime a dozen, nothing new was said here by the gold bugs. Have you ever considered it would be in the interest of the video producer to get as many people possible to buy gold to get the price up?
2. The definition of bubble is widely known, what you are asking for, it seems, is the exact moment it became a bubble. Do we know the exact date and housing price when the housing bubble started?
If not, why would gold be different.
3. My apologies, you said "you actually know what's going on in the world". I'm glad you have the time to discuss things with us here on CD forum in between making your millions or billions.
1. Still waiting for you to debate the content of the video instead of lazily falling back on the tired broad stereotyping of gold realists.
2. The "definition of bubble" must not be TOO widely known since the guy who brought up the idea here refuses to say what he thinks a bubble actually is.
3. I've never claimed to be smarter or better or richer than anyone on here so what the F are you talking about? Oh, am I supposed to be shy about expressing my opinions? Sorry...no dice, buddy.
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