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Old 03-14-2020, 06:25 PM
 
989 posts, read 456,565 times
Reputation: 1324

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Klassyhk View Post
Coronavirus = CODVID 19. I wonder what was wrong with the word Corona that compelled the medical authorities to change it's public name?
Living in a cave with no reading material?

Coronavirus is a generic name. There are already several coronaviruses that can infect humans. This particular one is new so in order to separate it from the other known coronaviruses, they gave it the name of COronaVIrus Disease-2019

 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:31 PM
 
Location: 2 blocks from bay in L.I, NY
2,919 posts, read 2,582,822 times
Reputation: 5297
Default Wait. What?

Quote:
Originally Posted by middle-aged mom View Post
Fluoridation began right after WW2.

I DK what you mean by “ fine”.

The US is no stranger to all sorts of nasty things, including, Small Pox, Yellow Fever, Cholera, , Typhoid Fever, Diptheria, Polio, Swine Flu and the Spanish Flu which killed 675,000 in the US.

CDC reports 22,000 have died from complications of the flu this 2019/20 seasonal flu. The fatality rate however, is a fraction of Corona.
I heard this on several occasions on C-D that the death rate of flu is a "fraction of Corona". Are you saying that the number of deaths from the Corona virus in the US during this 2019-2020 season has exceeded 22,000? Could you provide the source of where you're getting this information because I did not find any information on CDC's website that corroborates what you're saying. It sounds misleading.
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:37 PM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,534 posts, read 34,882,911 times
Reputation: 73807
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
Source link please.

From what I've found, nothing is definite as this is an evolving new virus.

https://www.wired.com/story/they-say...-borne-by-air/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...2.article-info
It was a non peer reviewed study. Pending peer review. The study was conducted by reputable establishments. It was 3. I want to say Univ. of CA and NIH were two, but don't quote me on that, it's from memory and I can't find my car keys.
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Old 03-14-2020, 06:40 PM
 
30,177 posts, read 11,815,563 times
Reputation: 18697
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Why not? See my previous post. Number of deaths is a hard number. From that we calculate the death rate, not the other way around.

The number is meaningless because its almost certainly not correct.
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:43 PM
 
Location: 2 blocks from bay in L.I, NY
2,919 posts, read 2,582,822 times
Reputation: 5297
Default It's not public's fault.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Retired View Post
Opinion:
Well done........I have been ridiculed over posts containing the same message.
One thing I learned in life. It is impossible to convince Crazy people that they are truly crazy.
My prayers for your mom. Hope you can get to see her soon...................
But it's not really the civilians fault if they're acting crazy in this situation. The MSM is driving people crazy with their reporting as if it's always BREAKING NEWS. "BREAKING NEWS! One person in XYZ county has NOW been exposed to or diagnosed with Coronavirus! Millions more are expected to follow suit!"

If people were dropping dead from Coronavirus as soon as they contacted it, that would be one thing. But we get breaking news for every single case that is diagnosed. Why? Other to reinforce fear in people why would they do this?

What I haven't noticed being done in MSM is followup. Are they going back to report on the person after 14 days who was exposed to someone with it? Are they going back to report on the person who actually came down with the symptoms? How is that person doing after 14 days? With former flu viruses in past years, for the most part by the 14th day you're definitely recovering and feeling better. Likely back at work, school, or whatever is normal for you. You may still have an occasional cough that doesn't seem to want to go away but you're definitely doing better. Why isn't the media doing follow-up reporting on these individuals so that we'll have some idea of what the journey having the virus is like?
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:45 PM
 
15,047 posts, read 8,877,906 times
Reputation: 9510
From the way the graph is progressing, it doesn't appear we are succeeding in flattening the curve.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:47 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,111 posts, read 41,292,919 times
Reputation: 45175
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Are you saying the false negative rate is high? What is it? I have no idea but I had not heard that before.

We could do that. Full on quarantine as Italy is doing.

This whole thing is a balancing act between economic damage vs. deaths due to CV. We can indeed lower the death rate a lot by locking everyone down. No one is allowed outside without a hall pass. But the economic damage of that is really high. So we try to limit the economic damage with some acceptable number of deaths, like do with the flu. That type of management requires lots of information to do it smartly, hence testing.
We do not yet know what percentage of tests are false negative. There are reports of people testing negative multiple times before getting a positive. That is why a single negative test does not mean a person is not infected and that is why testing people with no symptoms is not recommended.

Hence:

https://www.fda.gov/media/135662/download

"What does it mean if the specimen tests negative for the virus that causes COVID-19?

A negative test result for this test means that SARSCoV-2 RNA was not present in the specimen above the limit of detection. However, a negative result does not rule out COVID-19 and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or patient management decisions. A negative result does not exclude the possibility of COVID-19.

When diagnostic testing is negative, the possibility of a false negative result should be considered in the context of a patient’s recent exposures and the presence of clinical signs and symptoms consistent with COVID-19. The possibility of a false negative result should especially be considered if the patient’s recent exposures or clinical presentation indicate that COVID-19 is likely, and diagnostic tests for other causes of illness (e.g., other respiratory illness) are negative. If COVID-19 is still suspected based on exposure history together with other clinical findings, re-testing should be considered in consultation with public health authorities.

Risks to a patient of a false negative include: delayed or lack of supportive treatment, lack of monitoring of infected individuals and their household or other close contacts for symptoms resulting in increased risk of spread of COVID-19 within the community, or other unintended adverse events."

Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
But people were being billed $3k...
... for an ER visit. A visit for any cause is likely to generate a similar charge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgrimsProgress View Post
Anyone getting emails from stores about how they are so concerned about CV-19 that they are cleaning their stores? Shouldn't their stores have been cleaned on a regular basis regardless?

I'm just p1ssed that museums are closing. I was hoping to enjoy less traffic driving to my favorite museum to relax. Cabin fever!

Meanwhile tuberculosis and hepatitis kills thousands of people everyday.
In the US, TB kills about 500 people each year, not thousands per day.

https://www.cdc.gov/tb/publications/...s/tbtrends.htm

"In 2017, the most recent data available, 515 deaths in the United States were attributed to TB. This is a decrease from 528 deaths attributed to TB in 2016."

Hepatitis B is preventable with a vaccine and could be eradicated worldwide if all newborns were vaccinated. Tere is also treatment available.

There is now effective treatment for hepatitis C.

Neither of those is comparable to COVID-19.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Is anybody suggesting we test everyone? I am not. But there seems to be people here who are saying tests are not needed at all which I think is just as idiotic.

The right number of tests is greater than zero and less than the total population. I will go with what the WHO recommendation is.
See the link to the CDC recommendations above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Nope. A doc runs the test to figure out if a person with a cough has CV and needs to quarantine himself. That test does not need to be re-run on that person.

Another purpose of testing is to find out what the actual infection count is. Right now we don't know how many people are sick but not sick enough to get tested by a doctor. That is critical because those people will end up with immunity (hopefully) and should be counted as resolved cases.

The only way to do that is to do widespread testing. It doesn't need to be everyone, but a pool of people need to be selected and then tested and monitored. That pool should be a cross-section of the demographics of the population as a whole and then the number you get from it will represent the entire population.

People in that pool would need to be re-tested, yes, but this is how epidemiology works, by getting a handle on the characteristics of the disease. But again, it is not the entire population but a representative sample. Maybe 50,000 people? I don't know. But not 300 million.

You are for proper epidemiology, yes?
Positives do not need to be repeated. People with symptoms do need to be tested. The yield of positive tests on asymptomatic people will be small, and most of those would probably develop symptoms.

Testing thousands of "worried well" would be expensive and a waste of resources.

Many of the people with few or no symptoms may test negative.

The epidemiologists will eventually get a handle on how many people have few or no symptoms, but that will be by testing representative populations for antibodies to the virus, not by testing for the virus itself. I suspect the Chinese are already doing that. They can test health care workers, for example, like was done here in Singapore after the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak there.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/7/04-1165_article

Quote:
Originally Posted by ansible90 View Post
How do you determine where containment is needed if you don't test? You cannot shut the whole country down at once.
We are at the point where everyone needs to curtail nonessential public activity without testing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JAMS14 View Post
The people who are arguing that we don't need testing are Trump sycophants. They don't want the extent of the spread of the virus known anymore than Trump does, because it's going to make Trump look bad. AADAD is most certainly in that group. You can easily glean that from every one of his/her posts. It has nothing to do with containment, because we need to know where massive containment is needed to slow this down, which is what testing does. No, they are here solely to spread deflection and BS, all in the service of taking the focus off of how badly this administration has ****ed up.

The good news is that the states are stepping up to fill the void left by this completely inept president. We will get numbers, but they won't be from the federal government, who has completely dropped the ball.
Positives do not need to be repeated. People with symptoms do need to be tested. The yield of positive tests on asymptomatic people will be small, and most of those would probably develop symptoms.

Testing thousands of "worried well" is a waste of resources and not helpful.

All of us need to curtail nonessential activity. Now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by It'sAutomatic View Post
Social distancing is better than travel bans. If the virus is already everywhere as it seems, what's the point of stopping a person from coming in? Of course, we have no idea how many people have it here because our testing is pathetic.
If your cup is full you do not keep adding more of your beverage. We have the virus here now, we do not need to add either more susceptible people who could catch the virus and then have to be treated here or people who already have it and would need treatment here. Our resources are going to be strained as it is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrose View Post
I just read that a newborn has tested positive.

Mother went to the hospital with suspected pneumonia a few days ago. They didn't test the mother until after she gave birth they also tested the baby. All hospital staff that was in contact with the mother or baby were sent home to self isolate.
https://www.businessinsider.com/newb...oungest-2020-3

Maybe if she had been tested when she first went in with suggested pneumonia those doctors and nurses would be at work today.
Or, if she had been presumed infected and isolated those doctors and nurses would be at work today.
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:49 PM
 
Location: Haiku
7,132 posts, read 4,772,153 times
Reputation: 10327
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
The number is meaningless because its almost certainly not correct.
I simply calculated a death rate based it on what elan said (in post #2588) a Johns Hopkins professor said. If the professor is right then the death rate I calculated is right. Note that the professor is saying what the actual number of infected people are. All of the death rates that people are quoting, like 3%, are based on confirmed cases which everyone thinks are way less than the actual number of infections, because of not enough testing.

I can't say whether the professor is right or wrong, but if he is right, the actual death rate is much lower than what people think it is.
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:51 PM
 
Location: Barrington
63,919 posts, read 46,765,593 times
Reputation: 20674
Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgrimsProgress View Post
We need to correct the mistakes of past administrations, Repub AND Dem, which outsourced our pharmaceuticals to China. It might have to wait until Pelosi and her cohorts are gone since they are puppets of China.
80% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are manufactured in India, Vietnam, Romania, the Netherlands and China.


See post #32 for a more detailed explanation.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/poli...l#post57554785
 
Old 03-14-2020, 06:56 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,730,782 times
Reputation: 3387
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
I simply calculated a death rate based it on what elan said (in post #2588) a Johns Hopkins professor said. If the professor is right then the death rate I calculated is right. Note that the professor is saying what the actual number of infected people are. All of the death rates that people are quoting, like 3%, are based on confirmed cases which everyone thinks are way less than the actual number of infections, because of not enough testing.

I can't say whether the professor is right or wrong, but if he is right, the actual death rate is much lower than what people think it is.
It is probably in the 1% to 1.2% range which is 10 times more deadly than the flu. Dr Fauci is making that prediction.
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