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If you look at the last 30 days...which is really more the heart of winter 2023/2024...it has been warmer than normal on the East Coast and upper Midwest/Great Lakes...as well as the central and lower West Coast.
It has been colder than normal in the heartland and deep interior west.
The next 30 days (which will take us pretty close to the end of meteorlogical winter (Feb 28th) will really have to turn colder for the East Coast and upper Midwest/Great Lakes to have a below normal winter.
Tonight is really the night of reckoning for the Carolinas, Georgia, and most of non-panhandle Florida prior to the big warmup, with so many usual seasonal minimum ballparks forecasted. Some current seasonal lows (like Atlanta's -11C and Augusta Daniel Field's -6C) are to be rivaled, others (like Charleston Airport's -3C) are going to be SMASHED.
And, like the January 17 cold front, it is a similar time frame to nostalgia day January 18. Maybe January 20-21 will be some new nostalgia days if things are fairly good.
Areas I am most curious about:
-Outer Banks
-The monitoring trio of Charleston/Savannah/Augusta Daniel Field Airports
-Charleston Battery/Zone 9B Tybee Island/St Simons Island
-Tallahassee Challenger Learning Center
-Gainesville Airport
-Frost hollow Statesboro
Hope Bulloch makes the most of their chance to enjoy a brief taste of the kind of winter weather I like.
Tonight is really the night of reckoning for the Carolinas, Georgia, and most of non-panhandle Florida prior to the big warmup
Hope Bulloch makes the most of their chance to enjoy a brief taste of the kind of winter weather I like.
18 F forecast tonight. 80 F on Thursday
Currently 27 F here. Both KSAV and KDNL are 33 F as of 8 PM. Let's see how low it gets tonight
As much as it may get on the nerves of members like Tom77falcons, this is one of the reasons I love Southeast US weather monitoring so much. Nowhere else has such wild, fun-to-monitor swings between hot and cold weather and everything in between all winter long in the Southeast US way.
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Currently 27 F here. Both KSAV and KDNL are 33 F as of 8 PM. Let's see how low it gets tonight
If Daniel Field is on par with Savannah Airport, this may not be as advective as I initially suspected. Maybe there will be some fun variability based on wind and clouds like there was on November 29 and 30 last year.
It does look like a decent surge of warmth to most areas of the USA by Mon/Tue. The really cold weather should be confined to the far north and border states (mostly northern Plains and Maine/New Hampshire). We should see 40's and 50's central areas, and 60's to 70's F from southern California to South Carolina:
It will be above average here too, it's just that the averages are lower. +5F for Monday and +10F for Tuesday. Daytime highs will be near average at 25-30F, but the diurnal range is expected to be basically non-existent.
If you look at the last 30 days...which is really more the heart of winter 2023/2024...it has been warmer than normal on the East Coast and upper Midwest/Great Lakes...as well as the central and lower West Coast.
It has been colder than normal in the heartland and deep interior west.
The next 30 days (which will take us pretty close to the end of meteorlogical winter (Feb 28th) will really have to turn colder for the East Coast and upper Midwest/Great Lakes to have a below normal winter.
Yeah, this is going to be a warmer than normal winter in my part of the Great Lakes, almost guaranteed. January is looking 4.3F above the 20 year average.
December was 7.6F above the 20 year average.
So February would need to be 12F colder than average to result in a cold winter by 2004-2023 standards, that means it would have to be an almost 2015-esque February (16.4F below average). To get a cold winter using the 80 year baseline, February would have to be around 17F below average, so literally a 2015 or worse...
Jan 1: overcast
Jan 2: overcast
Jan 3: overcast
Jan 4: mix of sun & clouds
Jan 5: overcast
Jan 6: overcast
Jan 7: overcast
Jan 8: overcast
Jan 9: overcast
Jan 10: overcast
Jan 11: overcast
Jan 12: overcast
Jan 13: overcast
Jan 14: overcast
Jan 15: overcast
Jan 16: mostly cloudy
Jan 17: mostly cloudy
Jan 18: overcast
Jan 19: overcast
Jan 20: overcast
estimated MTD sunshine: ~8 hours...
December was like this too, only like 10-15 sunshine hours for the whole month... Normal for December should be 55 hours, and 80 hours for January.
Tomorrow we should get a bit of sun, but after that, more overcast weather for the foreseeable future. Maybe in February we finally start to see some sun.
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