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1980 Oregon and 2012 Oregon is a completely different state, if you think that state will go Red, you are living in a fantasy world, especially since Oregon votes by mail-in ballot and most Oregonians vote before the election even happens.
We'll see. I'm not saying Romney will win Oregon just that it'll be at the very least closer than folks expect.
It's not about 1980 Oregon vs. 2012 Oregon. It's about 1980 US vs. 2012 US. In a landslide, yes, Oregon would go red. It's not one of the most Democratic states - it's really not even as blue as MI.
I do not expect Romney to win Oregon but, if he did win by more than 7-8 points or so nationally, he likely would. I simply don't expect him to win nationally by 7-8 points.
Again, if you think Oregon has a chance of going Red in a presidential election any more, you are living in a fantasy land. I use to live there, that state is going Blue, and will go Blue a week before the election even happens.
LOL I think you're right. I'm an analyst by trade, you never go simply by the top line. That's why when libs were high fiving each other over polls showing Obama +10 in swing states I was like not so fast. He may be up but nowhere near that level.
On the surface this latest CBS poll looks good for Obama/bad for Romney but you have to dig in the weeds. An '08 advantage Obama had with Ohio Independents is now a deficit. My hunch is that the pros in Chicago are probably in crisis mode over this poll and when you consider Quinnipiac had a poll of PA where the margin is even tighter than this one. They maybe near panic.
Here's the thing about CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac....it is worse than NBC/WSJ/Marist. Their last Ohio poll had Obama up 9, so Romney is surging.
Their polls in every state other than Colorado, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin, have been FAR better for Obama than almost every other poll in those states around the same time....pretty consistently.
Liberals shouldn't be so excited about an extremely Democratic-leaning poll showing Obama's lead being cut almost in half.
Again, if you think Oregon has a chance of going Red in a presidential election any more, you are living in a fantasy land. I use to live there, that state is going Blue, and will go Blue a week before the election even happens.
A poll had Obama up there just 4 earlier this year. Will it happen this year? It's highly unlikely. Will it happen ever? Well, there's a good chance it will at some point in the future. Maybe 20 years from now, 40 years from now, etc.
The thing is it's a Democratic-leaning state, but not a safe Democratic state. It's about D+7 or D+8 when compared to the nation. If a Republican did win nationally by 7-8, then yes they would likely win Oregon. It's no Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, or even a Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, or California.
Obama is looking better and better in Ohio. Ive maintained for months now that the winner of Ohio wins the election. 538 has it 70-30 obama right now.
cheeeeaaahhh
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac...the most biased poll ever! And you are soooo excited about it!!!!! It's hilarious! The Angus Reid poll has them tied in Ohio.
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 5 in VA last week. All the other recent VA polls other than PPP have Romney ahead. Hell, even NBC/WSJ/Marist had Romney up in VA.
Maryland has a better chance to go Red than Oregon and you know Maryland ain't going red, so please move on with your fantasy world.
No, Maryland is significantly more Democratic than Oregon.
As I said earlier, I do not expect Oregon to go red, but it is only about a D+7 or D+8 state (when compared to the nation as a whole). Maryland is something like D+20.
No, Maryland is significantly more Democratic than Oregon.
As long as the population of Eugene and Portland go up, it will stay a Blue state, those two cities carry the election in that state and are just getting more blue each election.
As long as the population of Eugene and Portland go up, it will stay a Blue state, those two cities carry the election in that state and are just getting more blue each election.
OK, but it's only slightly more blue than NC was red in 2008 (compared to the nation...the state was R+7). More blue than MO was red in 2008, but less than MT or GA.
Again, in a 7-8-point national win for a Republican, yes the Republican could win Oregon. In a 10-point national win, they likely would. States do not vote in isolation. To see how Democratic or Republican a state is, the state's results should be compared to the national results.
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