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New Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Poll Shows a Tie Between Kemp and Abrams
Non-partisan international research outfit Ipsos, in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics released a new poll on Wednesday showing Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams being separated by only one point in the governor's race...
Quote:
Ipsos, in partnership with the University of Virginia and Reuters, has released a poll today showing that Secretary of State Brian Kemp (47%) and Stacey Abrams (46%) are tied among likely voters in polling for the upcoming November 6 election. The poll was conducted from October 4-11 with a sample of 1,999 adults from Georgia, including 1,088 of which are likely voters.
Washington, DC - Today, Ipsos released new election data in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, showing that Democrat Stacey Abrams (46%) and Republican Brian Kemp (47%) are tied in the race for Governor. Among likely voters, 51% approve of way Donald Trump is handling his job as President while 48% say they disapprove.
Some notable and important highlights of the poll are that:
> 51% of those polled approve of President Donald Trump, while 48% disapprove...
> 45% of likely voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% of the likely voters in the poll say that they do not believe the country is on the right track...
> 44% of those polled don’t believe the allegations against Kavanaugh, while 40% do believe the allegations against Justice Kavanaugh...
> 49% of those polled support Kavanaugh’s nomination, while 44% oppose his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Lawton Sack, the right-of-center GOP activist who wrote the GeorgiaPol.com write-up on the Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics poll, opined that he thought that the results of the poll bode very well for Brian Kemp because the trend in previous tracking polls versus results in other recent Georgia elections is that Democratic participation rates has appeared to max-out at the polling percentage that they receive prior to the election.
Other observers also think that the results of this poll bodes very well for Brian Kemp and the Georgia GOP because of President Donald Trump's 51% approval rating in the poll.
In a different election with a much smaller likely electorate (like particularly the 2010 and 2014 Congressional mid-term and Georgia gubernatorial elections), I would agree with Mr. Sack that the results of a poll like this would appear to bode very well for a candidate and GOP gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp in a scenario with a typically smaller mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that was almost certain to be dominated by conservative voters.
But in a situation like in the current one in the 2018 election where it appears to be a very real possibility that the mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that turns out could be noticeably larger and more diverse with the presence of more voters who may not typically participate in the voting process, much less in typically lower-turnout mid-term elections, I am not sure that I can completely agree with Mr. Sack's assessment that Democratic participation rates will be capped at the polling percentage that the party receives prior to the election.
With Georgia having been a Republican-dominated state for the past 16 years or so, I still think that Brian Kemp and the GOP has at least a slight but noticeable advantage heading into the in-person voting period until it is demonstrated that the GOP no longer has an advantage in every statewide contest.
But the soaring voter registration figures and the soaring early voting turnout numbers seem to indicate that there is a decent possibility that the makeup of the electorate could be somewhat noticeably different from the makeup of recent past mid-term electorates... Something which could help Stacey Abrams and the Democrats stay competitive enough to remain in a position to pull a massive earth-shaking upset through at least Election Day.
Some notable and important highlights of the poll are that:
> 51% of those polled approve of President Donald Trump, while 48% disapprove...
> 45% of likely voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% of the likely voters in the poll say that they do not believe the country is on the right track...
> 44% of those polled don’t believe the allegations against Kavanaugh, while 40% do believe the allegations against Justice Kavanaugh...
> 49% of those polled support Kavanaugh’s nomination, while 44% oppose his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Looking at these results, I'm going to assume this poll was taken somewhere in deep north Georgia.
Looking at these results, I'm going to assume this poll was taken somewhere in deep north Georgia.
A poll that has Trump +3 and Kavanaugh +4 only has Kemp at +1. If the electorate does look like that, he's got it. If it does not, he may be in trouble. We will see. We still don't know what early vote data is saying other than possible high turnout for a midterm. In 2014 Deal won reelection by about 6% with 37% turnout. Estimates are closer to 45-50% this year. Clearly the electorate is going to look different, just not sure if it helps Abrams or Kemp. My gut is the extra voters are a mix of the new residents in Metro ATL, young people who ignored 2014, and POC inspired by Abrams and/or turned off by Trump and the Republicans party turn towards being open racists and fascists. All of these groups lean democratic. No way to know until the votes are counted though.
A poll that has Trump +3 and Kavanaugh +4 only has Kemp at +1. If the electorate does look like that, he's got it. If it does not, he may be in trouble. We will see. We still don't know what early vote data is saying other than possible high turnout for a midterm. In 2014 Deal won reelection by about 6% with 37% turnout. Estimates are closer to 45-50% this year. Clearly the electorate is going to look different, just not sure if it helps Abrams or Kemp. My gut is the extra voters are a mix of the new residents in Metro ATL, young people who ignored 2014, and POC inspired by Abrams and/or turned off by Trump and the Republicans party turn towards being open racists and fascists. All of these groups lean democratic. No way to know until the votes are counted though.
Oh, I have no doubt Kemp will win, although I'll do everything I can to vote otherwise. Most elections in the recent years have shocked me with the outcome. The more horrendous the candidate, the more likely they win.
Non-partisan international research outfit Ipsos, in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics released a new poll on Wednesday showing Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams being separated by only one point in the governor's race...
Some notable and important highlights of the poll are that:
> 51% of those polled approve of President Donald Trump, while 48% disapprove...
> 45% of likely voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% of the likely voters in the poll say that they do not believe the country is on the right track...
> 44% of those polled don’t believe the allegations against Kavanaugh, while 40% do believe the allegations against Justice Kavanaugh...
> 49% of those polled support Kavanaugh’s nomination, while 44% oppose his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Lawton Sack, the right-of-center GOP activist who wrote the GeorgiaPol.com write-up on the Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics poll, opined that he thought that the results of the poll bode very well for Brian Kemp because the trend in previous tracking polls versus results in other recent Georgia elections is that Democratic participation rates has appeared to max-out at the polling percentage that they receive prior to the election.
Other observers also think that the results of this poll bodes very well for Brian Kemp and the Georgia GOP because of President Donald Trump's 51% approval rating in the poll.
In a different election with a much smaller likely electorate (like particularly the 2010 and 2014 Congressional mid-term and Georgia gubernatorial elections), I would agree with Mr. Sack that the results of a poll like this would appear to bode very well for a candidate and GOP gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp in a scenario with a typically smaller mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that was almost certain to be dominated by conservative voters.
But in a situation like in the current one in the 2018 election where it appears to be a very real possibility that the mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that turns out could be noticeably larger and more diverse with the presence of more voters who may not typically participate in the voting process, much less in typically lower-turnout mid-term elections, I am not sure that I can completely agree with Mr. Sack's assessment that Democratic participation rates will be capped at the polling percentage that the party receives prior to the election.
With Georgia having been a Republican-dominated state for the past 16 years or so, I still think that Brian Kemp and the GOP has at least a slight but noticeable advantage heading into the in-person voting period until it is demonstrated that the GOP no longer has an advantage in every statewide contest.
But the soaring voter registration figures and the soaring early voting turnout numbers seem to indicate that there is a decent possibility that the makeup of the electorate could be somewhat noticeably different from the makeup of recent past mid-term electorates... Something which could help Stacey Abrams and the Democrats stay competitive enough to remain in a position to pull a massive earth-shaking upset through at least Election Day.
Yes such good points. Abrams strategy is so radically different than those before her I think it's almost impossible to say how things will shake out. The early voting numbers are promising but there are so many moving parts.
It seems that Abrams is confident that she has the numbers to win in theory but recognizes how many unknowns there are. She definitely has left no stone unturned. I think that internal poll reflect how things could turn out if she was able to maximize her turnout. One of her biggest enemies is these fatalistic attitude among Democrats that it's impossible for her to win.
Don't understand why people would vote for someone who has done this...very un-American to do so.
We know why, because Kemp just like trump, is the latest Republican political figure in a long line of them that will protect the current social political and economic structure in Georgia and in the country that was designed to protect and advance policy that benefits straight, mostly wealthy, white men and white women (as an afterthought of course) based on their proximity to these men. This is the reason why whites as a whole vote for republicans, it's about the power structure and what that affords them. Even when we talk about poor and uneducated whites who have no economic reason whatsoever to vote for those like Kemp they do so because it still gives them some social cachet, despite their plight their whiteness can be used as a type of social currency in various ways. You can waste a lifetime trying to convince these people, with facts mind you, that what they're advocating won't benefit them or the country as a whole long-term and they simply won't believe you. Deep down they know what you're saying is true but what you're wanting wouldn't add to their reality, their here and now, their privilege of being white in this country whether they are aware of that or not. They see equality for all as oppression to them and I will say if we are being honest, I think all of us in a knee-jerk reaction would see things that way. But hopefully we would then see that when everyone has a fair shot we all are better off in so so many ways.
Non-partisan international research outfit Ipsos, in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics released a new poll on Wednesday showing Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams being separated by only one point in the governor's race...
Some notable and important highlights of the poll are that:
> 51% of those polled approve of President Donald Trump, while 48% disapprove...
> 45% of likely voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% of the likely voters in the poll say that they do not believe the country is on the right track...
> 44% of those polled don’t believe the allegations against Kavanaugh, while 40% do believe the allegations against Justice Kavanaugh...
> 49% of those polled support Kavanaugh’s nomination, while 44% oppose his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Lawton Sack, the right-of-center GOP activist who wrote the GeorgiaPol.com write-up on the Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics poll, opined that he thought that the results of the poll bode very well for Brian Kemp because the trend in previous tracking polls versus results in other recent Georgia elections is that Democratic participation rates has appeared to max-out at the polling percentage that they receive prior to the election.
Other observers also think that the results of this poll bodes very well for Brian Kemp and the Georgia GOP because of President Donald Trump's 51% approval rating in the poll.
In a different election with a much smaller likely electorate (like particularly the 2010 and 2014 Congressional mid-term and Georgia gubernatorial elections), I would agree with Mr. Sack that the results of a poll like this would appear to bode very well for a candidate and GOP gubernatorial nominee Brian Kemp in a scenario with a typically smaller mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that was almost certain to be dominated by conservative voters.
But in a situation like in the current one in the 2018 election where it appears to be a very real possibility that the mid-term/gubernatorial Georgia electorate that turns out could be noticeably larger and more diverse with the presence of more voters who may not typically participate in the voting process, much less in typically lower-turnout mid-term elections, I am not sure that I can completely agree with Mr. Sack's assessment that Democratic participation rates will be capped at the polling percentage that the party receives prior to the election.
With Georgia having been a Republican-dominated state for the past 16 years or so, I still think that Brian Kemp and the GOP has at least a slight but noticeable advantage heading into the in-person voting period until it is demonstrated that the GOP no longer has an advantage in every statewide contest.
But the soaring voter registration figures and the soaring early voting turnout numbers seem to indicate that there is a decent possibility that the makeup of the electorate could be somewhat noticeably different from the makeup of recent past mid-term electorates... Something which could help Stacey Abrams and the Democrats stay competitive enough to remain in a position to pull a massive earth-shaking upset through at least Election Day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall
A poll that has Trump +3 and Kavanaugh +4 only has Kemp at +1. If the electorate does look like that, he's got it. If it does not, he may be in trouble. We will see. We still don't know what early vote data is saying other than possible high turnout for a midterm. In 2014 Deal won reelection by about 6% with 37% turnout. Estimates are closer to 45-50% this year. Clearly the electorate is going to look different, just not sure if it helps Abrams or Kemp. My gut is the extra voters are a mix of the new residents in Metro ATL, young people who ignored 2014, and POC inspired by Abrams and/or turned off by Trump and the Republicans party turn towards being open racists and fascists. All of these groups lean democratic. No way to know until the votes are counted though.
I think it's safe to assume that new voters are going to lean Democratic. I think this is true even for new white voters. Whites moving to Georgia from other states are going to include a good number of those moving from less conservative states. The majority of white millennials are strongly Democratic.
I think new voters spell bad news for the GOP any way you slice it, which is part of what is fueling all the conspiracy theories. Kemp has put in place policies that make it harder for everyone in general to vote. If making it easier to vote helped the GOP, I doubt he would have put these rules in place.
We know why, because Kemp just like trump, is the latest Republican political figure in a long line of them that will protect the current social political and economic structure in Georgia and in the country that was designed to protect and advance policy that benefits straight, mostly wealthy, white men and white women (as an afterthought of course) based on their proximity to these men. This is the reason why whites as a whole vote for republicans, it's about the power structure and what that affords them. Even when we talk about poor and uneducated whites who have no economic reason whatsoever to vote for those like Kemp they do so because it still gives them some social cachet, despite their plight their whiteness can be used as a type of social currency in various ways. You can waste a lifetime trying to convince these people, with facts mind you, that what they're advocating won't benefit them or the country as a whole long-term and they simply won't believe you. Deep down they know what you're saying is true but what you're wanting wouldn't add to their reality, their here and now, their privilege of being white in this country whether they are aware of that or not. They see equality for all as oppression to them and I will say if we are being honest, I think all of us in a knee-jerk reaction would see things that way. But hopefully we would then see that when everyone has a fair shot we all are better off in so so many ways.
This is all pretty true. I spent a little time yesterday trying to convince someone on Facebook that his claims that Trump's numbers were "110% better" than Obama's were not borne out in facts, and posted a chart showing as such. He said my chart was stupid and useless. I also argued with a girl who said that unemployment was now under 3% thanks to Trump. I said, that's not true...that it's at 3.7% and only 1% lower than when Trump took office. She proceeded to post her evidence with graphic showing that Obama left an unemployment rate of 4.8% (which is 1.1% higher, like I said) and telling me that I was completely wrong. These are people who are bound and determined to believe what they want to believe, and are not swayed by facts or evidence. Even when their own evidence disproves what they are saying, they will just ignore it and move on.
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New Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Poll Shows a Tie Between Kemp and Abrams
