Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Millen, Clayton: pool, housing, teenager)

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

There are some very promising signs for Abrams after the first day of early voting. Georgia Votes

Overall, turnout is 181% higher than at this point in 2014. African Americans, who make up nearly 30% of registered voters, make up about 34.5% of early voters so far. 40.5% of those Af-Am voters who voted early did not vote at all in the 2014 midterm.

Also impressive is the turnout among other voters of color. They are making up nearly 12% of the early vote so far.

The latest polls were based on the assumption that black voters would make up about 30% of the electorate and other minorities about 5%. She is pulling about 25% of white voters.

So if these trends from the first day of early voting continue into election day, it appears Abrams will pull this out, barring voting machine malfunction or other interference.

To follow up on your comments about the first day of early voting, here is a link to an article in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporting that turnout numbers soared on the first day of in-person early voting on Monday.

In the article, it was reported that some voters had waits in line of up to 2 hours to vote early in Cobb County while there were reports of delays because of technical difficulties in Fulton County...

"Turnout soars on the first day of early voting in Georgia" (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...QjqtFSascOJ5M/

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

To follow up on your comments about the first day of early voting, here is a link to an article in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporting that turnout numbers soared on the first day of in-person early voting on Monday.

In the article, it was reported that some voters had waits in line of up to 2 hours to vote early in Cobb County while there were reports of delays because of technical difficulties in Fulton County...

"Turnout soars on the first day of early voting in Georgia" (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...QjqtFSascOJ5M/

Another day of insane numbers. On this day in 2014 we were at 67K. Today we are at 211k. Glad to see higher non-whites voting as well, the white percentage at this point is 57% compared to 69% in 2014.

That said, voter turnout is sharply up in both democratic and republican counties. Clayton County, the most democratic county in Georgia, is early voting at nearly 500% the 2014 levels.

Very interesting data, though we don't yet know what it means. It's possible enthusiasm means people are simply voting earlier, yet overall turnout will be the same as usual. On the other hand, it could mean a very high turnout election.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Another day of insane numbers. On this day in 2014 we were at 67K. Today we are at 211k. Glad to see higher non-whites voting as well, the white percentage at this point is 57% compared to 69% in 2014.

That said, voter turnout is sharply up in both democratic and republican counties. Clayton County, the most democratic county in Georgia, is early voting at nearly 500% the 2014 levels.

Very interesting data, though we don't yet know what it means. It's possible enthusiasm means people are simply voting earlier, yet overall turnout will be the same as usual. On the other hand, it could mean a very high turnout election.

I could be wrong, but I think that the soaring early voting turnout numbers are a sign that the 2018 cycle is likely to be a very high turnout election across the board in both Democratic and Republican precincts.

Nationally, Democratic voters are highly energized because of their continued opposition to President Donald Trump's highly controversial rhetoric and policies while Republican voters seem to be highly energized because of their continued anger over what they feel was Democratic mistreatment of Brett Kavanaugh during his bruising Supreme Court confirmation fight.

Here in Georgia, Democratic voters (including the state's large bloc of black voters) also seem to be highly energized over the opportunity to elect the nation's first black female governor while Republican voters also seem to be highly energized to vote to keep Georgia a Republican-controlled state for at least one more gubernatorial cycle by voting for a Trump-endorsed GOP candidate in Brian Kemp.

It looks like it will just be a matter of which side's very high turnout is higher.

[JPD]

We heard the same reports of early voting turnout in the 2016 election. I'm not going to interpret it as anything other than people simply like having more time to vote and feel like the traditional one day voting process of old is unworkable.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by samiwas1

Well, this is where you are wrong (again). Remember, the graphic would have used numbers at the time. I can pick any of several random years....

GDP at end of 2012q4 was 16.297 trillion. GDP at end of 2013q4 was 16.999 trillion. That is a difference of $702 billion. $702 billion from $16.297 trillion is a 4.3% increase.

Let's look at inflation-adjusted numbers, since they are smaller. End of 2014q1, GDP was $15.758 trillion. End of 2015q1, GDP was $16.350 trillion. That's a difference of $592 billion. $592 billion from $15.758 trillion is a 3.8% increase.

Obama had some 12-month periods that saw increases near or higher than 5% using at the time numbers, or 3.5% using inflation-adjusted numbers. It just so happens that his end of the year marks each time were just lower when using inflation-adjusted numbers. And if you look at inflation-adjusted number and average each president's entire tenure, George Bush saw an overall increase of 13.7%, while Obama saw an overall increase of 15.74%. Those recessions will do nasty things!

I can keep doing that with several other examples, or even make a chart, but you'll come up with another excuse as to why it doesn't matter.

GDP at the end of a random Quarter doesn't tell us anything which is why annual is used. For example which president would you rather be?


President A:
Q1-7% Q2-1% Q3-1.5% Q4-1%


or


President B:
Q1-3% Q2-3% Q3-3% Q4-3%


I mean with your silly meme President A would look like a genius if you cherry picked Q1 (which is what your meme did) when in reality President B was far better in GDP.



There is no excuse for me to come up with since I used the actual annual numbers not some random cherry picked quarter.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by cparker73

I hope you apply the same amount of rigorous scrutiny to Trump's personal and business financial situation that you're giving Abrams for the type of debt that most people can understand. The New York Times look at Trump's father's tax avoidance schemes and fraud certainly exposes how Trump owes most of his wealth to the sale of his father's empire and nothing he built on his own. I'm sure his kids are regretting his run for office because there won't be anything left of the real estate empire and the "Trump" brand that they were living off of.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...red-trump.html

Trump's dad has been dead for almost 20 years. Most wealth is generational wealth that is passed down. That isn't anything to be ashamed of. Abrams hasn't built anything on her own either well except a few phony non profits to run all her income through so she can avoid more tax liability. Her debt is extremely high and she has carried it for a very long time which considering her known income (she is rich) makes all this quite curious and it is why many people are curious about her holding the credit card and bank account for the State. I don't think those questions are unfair.

[JPD]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Trump's dad has been dead for almost 20 years. Most wealth is generational wealth that is passed down. That isn't anything to be ashamed of. Abrams hasn't built anything on her own either well except a few phony non profits to run all her income through so she can avoid more tax liability. Her debt is extremely high and she has carried it for a very long time which considering her known income (she is rich) makes all this quite curious and it is why many people are curious about her holding the credit card and bank account for the State. I don't think those questions are unfair.

Who are you voting for, and why?

You say you don't like either candidate, but you're carrying a lot of water for Kemp.

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by ronricks

GDP at the end of a random Quarter doesn't tell us anything which is why annual is used. For example which president would you rather be?


President A:
Q1-7% Q2-1% Q3-1.5% Q4-1%


or


President B:
Q1-3% Q2-3% Q3-3% Q4-3%


I mean with your silly meme President A would look like a genius if you cherry picked Q1 (which is what your meme did) when in reality President B was far better in GDP.



There is no excuse for me to come up with since I used the actual annual numbers not some random cherry picked quarter.

ronricks...yeah, you have proved that you aren't comprehending words. I used 12-month periods, not just random, cherry-picked quarters. You see, that's annual. 12 months is a year. A year is an annus. Annus is annual. But, since you are intent on believing what you want to believe, I'll make the chart for you.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by JPD

Who are you voting for, and why?

You say you don't like either candidate, but you're carrying a lot of water for Kemp.

Actually I have said Kemp is bad. Awful in fact. Multiple times. These are two very bad candidates and neither will be good for our state but for different reasons. I won't be voting for either of them. That is my right. I also am not a 'straight ticket' voter I vote for who I think is most qualified not who has a (D) or (R) by their name. There is no more of an ignorant person than a straight ticket voter.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by samiwas1

ronricks...yeah, you have proved that you aren't comprehending words. I used 12-month periods, not just random, cherry-picked quarters. You see, that's annual. 12 months is a year. A year is an annus. Annus is annual. But, since you are intent on believing what you want to believe, I'll make the chart for you.

The number from the meme you posted was a random cherry picked Quarter. Which tells us absolutely nothing. Obama never had 3% GDP annual growth. The only President in history with such distinction.