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Old 11-26-2018, 08:07 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
Reputation: 217

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Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56616867_zpid/
Paid 4mm in 2004, sold for 3.2mm last month after being for sale since 2014. Lost over a million bucks after figuring the commissions, taxes just in the years they wanted to sell (2014-18)

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...17_rect/14_zm/
Paid 1.225 sold for 1.5......11 years later. Not sure I see 40%+

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...24_rect/17_zm/
Paid 1.575 in 2002.....sold for 1.875 after 16 years!!!!

I think the +40% numbers are skewed by new construction. Buy a tear down for 800K and sell it as a new home for 1.6 skews the numbers for a 100% appreciation but when you factor in the cost of the new construction, then deduct the commissions it is no where near that.
So let me guess. You spent all day trying to cherry pick examples out of hundreds of listings. All of your listings are at the absolute high end of Massachusetts. It’s well known ultra luxury can be a hit or miss market.

Go find one of the “beaters” in Wellesley for 1m and it’ll be a different story. Also show me aggregate data showing me the loss. Btw the home value index correctly accounts for the tear downs. You are wrong.

Here’s a beater: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Wellesley/.../home/11724721

Up 200k in 2 years. Sold in 2016 for 800 and in 2018 for 1m
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:21 PM
 
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Here’s another Wellesley beater. Pretty **** location directly on route 9 it looks like. https://www.redfin.com/MA/Wellesley/...1/home/8970087

475 -> 735
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:22 PM
 
12,552 posts, read 14,649,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Here’s another Wellesley beater. Pretty **** location directly on route 9 it looks like. https://www.redfin.com/MA/Wellesley/...1/home/8970087

475 -> 735
Ok, so at 735K do you expect that house to appreciate more?
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:25 PM
 
12,552 posts, read 14,649,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
So let me guess. You spent all day trying to cherry pick examples out of hundreds of listings. All of your listings are at the absolute high end of Massachusetts. It’s well known ultra luxury can be a hit or miss market.

Go find one of the “beaters” in Wellesley for 1m and it’ll be a different story. Also show me aggregate data showing me the loss. Btw the home value index correctly accounts for the tear downs. You are wrong.

Here’s a beater: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Wellesley/.../home/11724721

Up 200k in 2 years. Sold in 2016 for 800 and in 2018 for 1m
Wellesley is an expensive town. You said 40% like it was guaranteed across the board which it clearly was not. I didn't cherry pick, I pulled up a house I was familiar with and used zillow to click on a few sales. Some folks made a few bucks, some folks got their a$$ handed to them. No 40% across the board winners though.

Good luck in Natick. I don't see huge gains in the next 10 years as I feel we are at the top of the market again. Enjoy your home but realize it isn't bitcoin 2016.
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:39 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
Wellesley is an expensive town. You said 40% like it was guaranteed across the board which it clearly was not. I didn't cherry pick, I pulled up a house I was familiar with and used zillow to click on a few sales. Some folks made a few bucks, some folks got their a$$ handed to them. No 40% across the board winners though.

Good luck in Natick. I don't see huge gains in the next 10 years as I feel we are at the top of the market again. Enjoy your home but realize it isn't bitcoin 2016.
That's how averages work... Some gain, some lose, but on average there was a 40% gain (actually i think i said in the 30s for Wellesley... It got outperformed by Natick)

Here's a recent natick sale on the low/mid tier:
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/4-K...operty-history

Sold recently for 547k... sold previously in march 2007 RIGHT AT THE TOP for 318k

318k -> 547k

that's a 72% gain in 11.5 years.

Your "feeling" about the market doesn't mean much. Its well known that timing the market is very difficult if not impossible.
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:42 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Partial Observer View Post
You probably can’t afford Natick with that profile, but you might be able to find something in Framingham. Maybe even North Framingham if you’re willing to compromise on square footage. Framingham is overdue for some serious gentrification, so your home would be a sweet notch in the ol’ portfolio in 5-10 years.
I think you are definitely mistaken. The user can definitely afford natick with over 300k income. Are you kidding me? They could easily afford a 1M house and be comfortable with that income and cushion in savings. We bring in about $240k and half the net worth and are looking at natick $750k -800kish homes. Would like to hear other opinions on that.
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:45 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff2354 View Post
I think you are definitely mistaken. The user can definitely afford natick with over 300k income. Are you kidding me? They could easily afford a 1M house and be comfortable with that income and cushion in savings. We bring in about $240k and half the net worth and are looking at natick $750k -800kish homes. Would like to hear other opinions on that.
He was joking. You can easily afford 800k homes on your income and net worth. I think you can actually afford even 1M.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:05 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff2354 View Post
I think you are definitely mistaken. The user can definitely afford natick with over 300k income. Are you kidding me? They could easily afford a 1M house and be comfortable with that income and cushion in savings. We bring in about $240k and half the net worth and are looking at natick $750k -800kish homes. Would like to hear other opinions on that.
I mean, not to make this a p*ssing contest, but I think a lot of folks on here pull in that kind of dough in dual income households.

Two cars, a few kids, vacations, travel sports teams, music lessons, Christmas, birthdays, nights out on weekends, a 529, a 401k, the tax man... Unless you have a seriously impressive down payment via long time equity or a substantial gift, it’s nearly impossible to afford a $1M home on $300k AND save appropriately.

Edit: I’m operating under the assumption that we’re talking about a family running on $300k salary. My logic below:

$300k, after tax and all medical deductions, is ~$14.5k p/month, less $725 for 401, and $500 for a 529. Let’s say two car payments at $900 total. Let’s say $600 for all utilities/bills, assuming no credit. Mortgage, taxes, insurance, at current rate on an $800k loan (assuming $200k down) is ~$7k p/month. We spend an additional $3k on life, easy- daycare, gym memberships, gas, train, weekend nights out, groceries, clothing, coffee, alcohol, etc. and that’s with one baby boy. If you have a larger family, I’d expect many folks with two working parents spend a good portion of that in daycare alone..

That leaves <$2k a month in “savings”, and I think that’s conservative. Add in the unforeseen expenses, especially if you have active children. Add in vacations. Add in birthdays and holidays. I don’t see this being very comfortable, at least not for the way we live.

That said, if you can’t find a house in Natick on $300k, you have an incontrollable gambling problem.

Last edited by mwj119; 11-26-2018 at 09:40 PM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:14 PM
 
12,552 posts, read 14,649,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
That's how averages work... Some gain, some lose, but on average there was a 40% gain (actually i think i said in the 30s for Wellesley... It got outperformed by Natick)

Here's a recent natick sale on the low/mid tier:
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/4-K...operty-history

Sold recently for 547k... sold previously in march 2007 RIGHT AT THE TOP for 318k

318k -> 547k

that's a 72% gain in 11.5 years.

Your "feeling" about the market doesn't mean much. Its well known that timing the market is very difficult if not impossible.

5 things to consider before you "cash in your profits"......The big red flag is it was listed for 499 and it sold for 48K OVER asking price. That right there should tell you that you are at the top of the market insanity.

1. Inflation over those 11.5 years. 547K doesn't buy today what it did 11 years ago.
2. Carry/Sale costs of that residence- Taxes are 6K a year, 28K in commission to sell it. That right there is almost 100K of your "profit"
3. Great you hit a homerun, but wait you probably need to buy again and if you buy in an inflated market are you just giving back your profits on another home that probably needs work?
4. Interest rates? Great you made money but if the new house has a 1-2% higher mtg than your last one then the new home is costing you more each month to borrow the same amount. Inflated price of the house, plus more interest and suddenly you could be spending $100s more each month for a house that has no appreciation left.+

I sold a house in 2001 for 2.5X what I paid for it in 1996. I was faced with all of the same issues I listed above except the rising interest rates (the rates actually dropped). I sold, relocated 50 miles away to a newer booming area since the area I was in I felt was overpriced. Fast forward, new house is worth 2X what I paid and now it is paid off yet if I sell and buy something smaller I believe I am overpaying per square foot. It is simply cheaper to stay put in the bigger house for free.

If you look at real estate or economies in general, there are ups and downs. Do you really feel there is "gas left in the tank" to continue higher? Most experts would agree that the ride is over for now. I would be uncomfortable buying at the top of the roller coaster.

As a footnote: The house I sold, is probably worth 1.5X what they paid me for it. It would sell fast because they put a new roof, windows/doors, AC and probably a newer kitchen by now. They easily spent 120K+ on stuff I didn't. The improvements eat into their profits but would make the house a faster sale. From my sale, I spent about 40K in 5 years in upgrades but no where near the improvements they have done. I'd rather be the guy that spent less and made more.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:15 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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I lot make 250k on dual income yes. Believe it or not the going rate right now for a senior level software engineer at a top 20% firm is about 250k total comp. there are dual tech households pulling 500-600k

Keep those tech jobs rolling in and it’s easy to see why the housing prices have gone up so much. Could the Bay Area of California be our future? The senior level rate over there is 350-400k
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