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Yeah, long term avg but Bush got 19% and Mccain 22% and, as you know, all voters are becoming more independent.......so unless the GOP comes up with something different then their far-right turn I don't see 25% going GOP.
We are just dumb enough (like me!) to vote 3rd party a lot...
Yeah, long term avg but Bush got 19% and Mccain 22% and, as you know, all voters are becoming more independent.......so unless the GOP comes up with something different then their far-right turn I don't see 25% going GOP.
You're forgetting about the prominent Dem antisemites. They're not afraid whatsoever to publicly express their hatred of Jews.
Yeah, long term avg but Bush got 19% and Mccain 22% and, as you know, all voters are becoming more independent.......so unless the GOP comes up with something different then their far-right turn I don't see 25% going GOP.
We are just dumb enough (like me!) to vote 3rd party a lot...
And Romney got 30%, and he was more recent than McCain. Trump got 24%. Reagan and the other Bush got 35%.
And as I said, I dont know if they will be leaving the Democratic Party in droves, either. But that poster made it seem so far fetched for a Jew to vote republican. I know plenty of Jews that vote republican.
You're forgetting about the prominent Dem antisemites. They're not afraid whatsoever to publicly express their hatred of Jews.
That's because (many) liberal Jews are so hateful toward Republicans - just look at the derision revealed on this thread - that prominent Dems feel secure they can get away with some awful behavior regarding Jews and still retain their vote.
It's a calculation. They fear that the antisemitic radicals - the Farrakhan followers, fhe Omar apologists, etc., will get angry if Dems take a strong stand against antisemitism, and it may cost them the anti-Jew vote.
And Romney got 30%, and he was more recent than McCain. Trump got 24%. Reagan and the other Bush got 35%.
And as I said, I dont know if they will be leaving the Democratic Party in droves, either. But that poster made it seem so far fetched for a Jew to vote republican. I know plenty of Jews that vote republican.
Sure, even 20% is a lot....100's of thousands. I have one Jewish friend who is a lefty but he votes Republican because his business does biz with the Republican administration of his city.
Add in all the Orthodox....who definitely skew the results some. I think there are two main variables
1. The Candidate - Romney is obviously more palatable for a Jewish business type (being that he is/was Wall Street and venture capital, etc.) and Mormons are not considered to to be "religion above country". He also is a moderate and, in fact, won the Gov. in my state - during which term Gay Marriage and Universal health care were passed.....that's a far shot from the Trump of today!
2. Trump got the 24% along with many other votes as "give him a shot"....which, now (2018) we can see is long over. I doubt he will get 20% of the vote in 2020.
History is no indication here since the Jewish population is becoming more secular, younger and probably even more liberal than before. My thinking is that, without the Fundie Jewish vote, the GOP would be lucky to ever hit even 15%, which is really weak. That's the weakest of any ethics group I know of other than black folks (unless I am missing something)...
Sure, even 20% is a lot....100's of thousands. I have one Jewish friend who is a lefty but he votes Republican because his business does biz with the Republican administration of his city.
Add in all the Orthodox....who definitely skew the results some. I think there are two main variables
1. The Candidate - Romney is obviously more palatable for a Jewish business type (being that he is/was Wall Street and venture capital, etc.) and Mormons are not considered to to be "religion above country". He also is a moderate and, in fact, won the Gov. in my state - during which term Gay Marriage and Universal health care were passed.....that's a far shot from the Trump of today!
2. Trump got the 24% along with many other votes as "give him a shot"....which, now (2018) we can see is long over. I doubt he will get 20% of the vote in 2020.
History is no indication here since the Jewish population is becoming more secular, younger and probably even more liberal than before. My thinking is that, without the Fundie Jewish vote, the GOP would be lucky to ever hit even 15%, which is really weak. That's the weakest of any ethics group I know of other than black folks (unless I am missing something)...
So, 24% of Jewish voters voted Trump to 'give him a shot' ? Is that like giving a rookie quarterback 'a shot' if the established qb is having a bad game ? Clinton had a long established record and 1 in 4 Jews rejected her.
Orthodox Jews are maybe 10-12% of Jews. Roughly 60% vote R. If some who vote D leave the D's, not a significant overall impact.
Toss-out midterm elections. They're too locally oriented to say anything about a prez election.
So, 24% of Jewish voters voted Trump to 'give him a shot' ? Is that like giving a rookie quarterback 'a shot' if the established qb is having a bad game ? Clinton had a long established record and 1 in 4 Jews rejected her.
Orthodox Jews are maybe 10-12% of Jews. Roughly 60% vote R. If some who vote D leave the D's, not a significant overall impact.
Toss-out midterm elections. They're too locally oriented to say anything about a prez election.
Well, toss out a 2020 prediction for me? How many Jews will vote GOP?
I'll take the over. 20+%. 14 months too far away to say whether closer to 24% or Romney's 30%.
I'd say 25% if Biden is the nominee, and 30% if one of the Democratic Socialists is the nominee.
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