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Old 08-29-2022, 03:30 PM
 
Location: deafened by howls of 'racism!!!'
52,697 posts, read 34,572,254 times
Reputation: 29289

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it could. however, the deMSM has a loooong history of doing exactly what they're attempting today:

Quote:
Another cycle, another round of the media saying Democrats are going to win and the GOP are doomed.

Let’s take a look at some of their past predictions…

2010, Politico: poll shows peril for Republicans.
GOP won 63 seats in the House.

2013, New Republic: We could be witnessing the death throes of the Republican Party
2014, NY Times: Goodbye to the Republican Wave
GOP gained 9 Senate seats.

2015, The Atlantic: The Day the Republican Party Died
2016, The Washington Post: The GOP is history, what about the country?
GOP won Presidency, held House and Senate

2020, The Washington Post; how big a Republican wipeout are we looking at?
2020, Dave Wasserman: Democrats Poised to Expand Majority by 10 to 15 Seats
GOP gained 12 seats in House.


https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeKBerg...59685641277441

 
Old 08-29-2022, 11:07 PM
 
3,618 posts, read 3,056,551 times
Reputation: 2788
McConnell + Trump = long term Democratic reign. Thanks boys! Good work.
 
Old 08-29-2022, 11:55 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by zach_33 View Post
McConnell + Trump = long term Democratic reign. Thanks boys! Good work.
I honestly don't blame the turtle. There is enough to lay blame with him, but the Democrats not getting walluped in 2022, I cannot. I do however blame Trump. Now before I get the "well mkpunk is a known anti-Trumper" or "mkpunk suffers from TDS" responses, the fact of the matter is Trump is not popular. Trump is under-water by 13 points as oppose to 18 points in February 2021 as he was facing his secon impeachment. Biden is only 9 points under water as oppose to nearly 19 points above water in Feb 2021 (to compare to Trump.) While Biden had a bigger slide, Trump had his peak of how close to being above water in March of this year at 4.6% and slowly cratered back down as the January 6th committee went public and a slight dip in how underwater he is due to views on the FBI visit.

In all honesty, what has McConnell done to help Democrats? I can only think of not impeaching Trump but we still needed about 10 additional Republican votes to impeach in the Senate. McConnell really only did his stack the Supreme Court thing but Trump was the one to name the justices. McConnell just had the up-down vote since he got rid of the filibuster (which is arcane.)

That said we are still two months away from the election, a lot can happen with Trump to continue to torpedo the Republicans. I do not see McConnell doing much more to hurt them.
 
Old 08-30-2022, 11:16 AM
 
Location: az
13,754 posts, read 8,009,665 times
Reputation: 9413
The election is still two months away which is a lifetime in politics.

I generally look at Emerson and Trafalgar and not necessarily the combined polling average. Anything within 4 means it's close race.

If I'm not sure of a poll reliability I check with 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
 
Old 08-30-2022, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
The election is still two months away which is a lifetime in politics.

I generally look at Emerson and Trafalgar and not necessarily the combined polling average. Anything within 4 means it's close race.

If I'm not sure of a poll reliability I check with 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
True but barring an economic disaster and I'm talking 1929 or 2008 level, how can the Republicans truly turn it around?
 
Old 08-30-2022, 01:49 PM
 
956 posts, read 510,944 times
Reputation: 1015
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
True but barring an economic disaster and I'm talking 1929 or 2008 level, how can the Republicans truly turn it around?
The GOP just needs the house which is still most probable and our democracy and freedoms will be safe for another 2 years at least. Does not matter how many senate seats dems pickup if GOP has house nothing evil will get passed.

But we are so severely on our way to a socialist and green new deal police state if dems pickup 2 or more senate seats and somehow by miracle keep the house against longshot odds.
 
Old 08-30-2022, 03:35 PM
 
Location: az
13,754 posts, read 8,009,665 times
Reputation: 9413
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
True but barring an economic disaster and I'm talking 1929 or 2008 level, how can the Republicans truly turn it around?
Nothing to turn around. Most of the races are close. Turnout will determine the winner. Here's a closely watch race in AZ.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ate-race-poll/


Trafalgar polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...afalgar-group/
 
Old 08-30-2022, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Nothing to turn around. Most of the races are close. Turnout will determine the winner. Here's a closely watch race in AZ.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ate-race-poll/


Trafalgar polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...afalgar-group/
I want to see future polls. 538 still averages Kelly up by 7. I wouldn't vote for Masters for dog catcher. I know he is either lying now or he lied before about his stance on abortion. I can't trust him. Plus on top of that he is a Trump backed candidate...
 
Old 08-30-2022, 05:30 PM
 
Location: az
13,754 posts, read 8,009,665 times
Reputation: 9413
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
I want to see future polls. 538 still averages Kelly up by 7. I wouldn't vote for Masters for dog catcher. I know he is either lying now or he lied before about his stance on abortion. I can't trust him. Plus on top of that he is a Trump backed candidate...

I prefer individual polls with a top rating and not an overall average. I like Trafalgar, Emerson (Kelly up by 4) and Quinnipiac.
 
Old 08-30-2022, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
I prefer individual polls with a top rating and not an overall average. I like Trafalgar, Emerson (Kelly up by 4) and Quinnipiac.
That is likely what it will be Election Day I'm sure of that. Masters has to get around scrubbing his website on his known views on abortion. Either he is hiding or he isn't genuine.
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