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And, while the most pressing issue of most elections is the economy stupid, nothing is more central to a woman's/family's economy than children. Few things more expensive than raising a child. Women understand this.
The inability to control one's reproductive life is the inability to control one's economic status.
The inability to control one's economic status results in second class citizenship. The majority of women will never accept this either for themselves, their descendants, or other women.
Lots of men in for a rude awakening imo.
As time goes on and the States institute more draconian abortion restrictions, we will see a growing bloc of voters who oppose the Dobbs decision.
This powerful voting bloc will increasingly choose Democrats at the ballot box. It won't have anything to do with accepting the Democratic platform versus the Republican platform. It will be about protecting their basic rights.
Clarence Thomas has promised us that the right to contraception and the right to privacy of what we do in our bedrooms will be be overturned by the SCOTUS as well. These decisions are going to affect everyone, not just women.
As time goes on and the States institute more draconian abortion restrictions, we will see a growing bloc of voters who oppose the Dobbs decision.
This powerful voting bloc will increasingly choose Democrats at the ballot box. It won't have anything to do with accepting the Democratic platform versus the Republican platform. It will be about protecting their basic rights.
Clarence Thomas has promised us that the right to contraception and the right to privacy of what we do in our bedrooms will be be overturned by the SCOTUS as well. These decisions are going to affect everyone, not just women.
Note that Thomas is not going after Loving. He's perfectly happy taking away everyone else's rights, but thinks his rights need to be left alone.
Meanwhile, the GOP (aka the American Taliban) alienates 51 percent of the population at their own risk.
Out performing? Republicans are outperforming Democrats in every primary. I know Democrats and media have to spin to try to save face but they don't have to lie. Numbers don't lie.
You are comparing Primary races that were competitive on one side and not on the other, and mostly pre Dobbs. I was referring to the Special Elections post Dobbs.
A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.
Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs. https://www.marquette.edu/news-cente...out-voting.php
I think two big surprises come Nov. will be: 1. The increased % of Hispanic vote Rep. candidates receive. 2. The economy, inflation, cost of food/gas will top voters concerns. Not abortion rights.
The special elections and the Kansas amendment vote beg to differ... I guess Republicans only follow the logic of "The only poll that matters is the vote." Time has told that abortion HAS been an overriding issue. Why else are Republicans like Blake Masters scrubbing their abortion stances? Oh I know, just like Republican stances, it only matters when it benfits Republicans. That is why you are putting weight into Traflagar and not the actual election results where Democrat voters are showing up at the polls, rather than most midterm and special elections.
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232
The same goes for men who love and support women who are pro-life.
A more interesting question is percentage of men/women for whom abortion rights isn't an overriding issue. Voters with more pressing concerns.
I'm sure we'll have a better idea after Nov.
It isn't my overriding issue, mine is Trumpism. Luckily all Trumpers want highly restrictive abortion laws that even block it in the cases of rape, incest and health of mother or even child.
Out performing? Republicans are outperforming Democrats in every primary. I know Democrats and media have to spin to try to save face but they don't have to lie. Numbers don't lie.
To the orange, Arizona typically on the Democrat side is one-sided, even if there are multiple candidates. For example, take this year for example. Sen. Mark Kelly actually ran uncontested in the primary. SecState Kathy Hobbs was long the front-runner for the Democratic Gubnatorial candidacy though Marco Lopez got some steam. Hobbs ended up winning by over 200,000 votes. Compare that to the Republican ballots where you had five on ballot candidates (Blake Masters, Jim Lamon, AG Mark Bronovich, Gen. Michael/Mick McGuire, and Justin Olson) and two additional write-in candidates for the Senate nomination. The Gubernatorial was similar with five on ballot candidates (Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Matt Salmon*, Scott Neely, Paola Tulliani-Zen) and three additional write-in candidates.
The special elections and the Kansas amendment vote beg to differ... I guess Republicans only follow the logic of "The only poll that matters is the vote." Time has told that abortion HAS been an overriding issue. Why else are Republicans like Blake Masters scrubbing their abortion stances? Oh I know, just like Republican stances, it only matters when it benfits Republicans. That is why you are putting weight into Traflagar and not the actual election results where Democrat voters are showing up at the polls, rather than most midterm and special elections.
It isn't my overriding issue, mine is Trumpism. Luckily all Trumpers want highly restrictive abortion laws that even block it in the cases of rape, incest and health of mother or even child.
No. The Dobbs decision was this year and I suspect many voters have more pressing concerns like the cost of food and gas.
No. The Dobbs decision was this year and I suspect many voters have more pressing issues like the cost of food and gas.
Many will vote cost of food and gas as per usual. The problem the GOP has is that the The Dobbs decision is turning traditional midterm low propensity voters into high propensity voters. There is enough data in...it is driving people to the polls.
To the orange, Arizona typically on the Democrat side is one-sided, even if there are multiple candidates. For example, take this year for example. Sen. Mark Kelly actually ran uncontested in the primary. SecState Kathy Hobbs was long the front-runner for the Democratic Gubnatorial candidacy though Marco Lopez got some steam. Hobbs ended up winning by over 200,000 votes. Compare that to the Republican ballots where you had five on ballot candidates (Blake Masters, Jim Lamon, AG Mark Bronovich, Gen. Michael/Mick McGuire, and Justin Olson) and two additional write-in candidates for the Senate nomination. The Gubernatorial was similar with five on ballot candidates (Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Matt Salmon*, Scott Neely, Paola Tulliani-Zen) and three additional write-in candidates.
With regards to AZ: I think the big surprise this Nov. will be the increased Hispanic support the Rep. party receives.
Masters? He's getting hitting nightly on the TV almost everywhere (including Ruku TV.) A ton of money is being spent in support of Kelly. And from what I've rea Masters has almost no money and the Rep. party has cut him off.
Yet, Traflagar (A- rating) had him within 3-4 points last week.
With regards to AZ: I think the big surprise this Nov. will be the increased Hispanic support the Rep. party receives.
Masters? He's getting hitting nightly on the TV almost everywhere (including Ruku TV.) A ton of money is being spent in support of Kelly. And from what I've rea Masters has almost no money and the Rep. party has cut him off.
Yet, Traflagar (A- rating) had him within 3-4 points last week.
Again you ignore what the poster above spoke of...
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64
Many will vote cost of food and gas as per usual. The problem the GOP has is that the The Dobbs decision is turning traditional midterm low propensity voters into high propensity voters. There is enough data in...it is driving people to the polls.
You ignore the Kansas vote where Democrats beat out the amendment to allow the legislature to make abortions illegal in the state john3232. You ignore the New York 19th district special election results. You ignore the Alaska special election results where as https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/538 put it 29% of the Begich votes went to Peltoa which got her to 51%. You also ignore the Democratic gains in special elections like Minnesota, Nebraska and New York 23rd district but did not win. Instead john3232, you repeat Traflagar and time will tell.
I would read the 538 article which I linked if I were you John.
Quote:
Namely, Palin was a very flawed candidate. After her 2008 vice-presidential campaign flopped, Palin resigned the governorship (reportedly amid ethics investigations), bought a house in Arizona and went on to appear on reality TV — giving many Alaskans the sense that she had abandoned them. According to a July poll from Alaska Survey Research, 61 percent of Alaska registered voters had a negative opinion of her. It’s hard to win with those kinds of numbers.
---
Democrats did at least 6 points better than the partisan lean of the districts they ran in each election. If you plug in Alaska’s first-round numbers (the ones that are good for Republicans), the average Democratic overperformance in special elections since Dobbs is 7 points. If you use the final-round numbers (i.e., Peltola’s 3-point defeat of Palin), it’s 11 points.
In other words, while Peltola’s victory is a nice morale boost for Democrats, an extra vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, an important milestone for Alaska Natives and, of course, undoubtedly a thrill for Peltola herself, it’s also kind of beside the point for purposes of predicting the midterms. We already knew that something — probably Dobbs — had shifted the national environment in Democrats’ favor since midsummer. The Alaska result is, at best, consistent with that and, at worst, doesn’t contradict it.
Now yes, 538 does say that things statistically does get worse going forward for the party in power in regards to midterms but the trend for this year has proven not as good for the Republicans. And we could see thing get worse as we hear even more from the January 6th committee.
Many will vote cost of food and gas as per usual. The problem the GOP has is that the The Dobbs decision is turning traditional midterm low propensity voters into high propensity voters. There is enough data in...it is driving people to the polls.
Except it's not as per usual.
Gas prices in the Phx metro for example which were under $2 a gallon when I moved here in 2019 reached $5.50 early this year. Food prices have also skyrocketed.
The Jan. 6 hearings, Dobbs decision only go so far when the cost of food/gas continues to hammer voters.
Last edited by john3232; 09-04-2022 at 11:12 AM..
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