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I’m sure many don’t . However this doesn’t mean they all do or that abortion rights will the overriding issue come November
Depends how many stories of women forced to carry a baby because of rape or when it causes health complications to the mother or worse the fetus will die within minutes are too many? I argue one of any is too many. Many others will think the same way. Then there maybe fallout from the additional Jan 6 th open sessions starting up in the coming weeks too.
Depends how many stories of women forced to carry a baby because of rape or when it causes health complications to the mother or worse the fetus will die within minutes are too many? I argue one of any is too many. Many others will think the same way. Then there maybe fallout from the additional Jan 6 th open sessions starting up in the coming weeks too.
A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.
Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs. https://www.marquette.edu/news-cente...out-voting.php
I think two big surprises come Nov. will be: 1. The increased % of Hispanic vote Rep. candidates receive. 2. The economy, inflation, cost of food/gas will top voters concerns. Not abortion rights.
Republicans have always told us they want less government and more freedom. How is the government telling women what they can and can't do with their bodies less government?
The overreach will cost them dearly.
How is taking the abortion issue from federals which was made up law in 1973 back to the people on the states to decide is forcing people what do to? It's the opposite. People of the state have the last word like Kansas. If you want a big federal government to control everything, why not burn the constitution and write a new one and this time put abortion as a right in the constitution and have the people ratify it by democratic process when NO country on earth has it in their constitution.
Pretend that judges didn't made up new law in 1973. How would you make abortion legal? By state and democratic means. What's the drama? Why would you want to give the federal government endless powers and to make all the decisions?
Keep in mind one of those Senators did vote to impeach Trymp.
Also, Palin is a bit further to the right than Begich. A rape and incest exception being a key difference. With that said, at the end of the day, only 50% of Begich supporters broke for Palin and almost 30% broke for the Democratic candidate in Peltola, that is what decided the election.
and she got censored by the Alaska GOP party. I live in Utah and Mitt also voted to impeached when the majority of Utah were against it and he got booed last year at the Utah Republican convention and he will not run for re-election in 2024. Just like Liz Cheney found out the hard way.
That's not true. Palin and Begich are the same on all issues. On abortions she said " It would not be up to me to unilaterally ban anything. It would be up to the people of Alaska to discuss and decide how we would like our society to reflect our values." She personally supported bills to outlaw late term abortions and to require parental consent for underage abortions in Alaska, but rebuffed religious conservatives who wanted to legislate restrictions on abortion. That is the same policy as Begich. Regardless of his personal opinion he will leave it to the people of Alaska how they want to regulate it by democratic means.
So of all Begich voters, 30% broke for Peltola as a 2nd option and 20% left the option blank then it has nothing to do about policies but they don't want Palin and it is Begich or nobody else. Is not policy but the person. It's a mini civil war between Palin and the state GOP since she left the office. It has NOTHING to do with policies.
Some Bernie Sanders voters voted for Trump in 2016. Their first choice was Bernie and didn't want Hillary as an option. That is similar to what happened in the special election and We have to wait for the general in 2 months to see if it repeats itself but the fact is the majority of Alaskans agree with the policies of Palin and Begich and the Alaska voting system is a mess.
and she got censored by the Alaska GOP party. I live in Utah and Mitt also voted to impeached when the majority of Utah were against it and he got booed last year at the Utah Republican convention and he will not run for re-election in 2024. Just like Liz Cheney found out the hard way.
That's not true. Palin and Begich are the same on all issues. On abortions she said " It would not be up to me to unilaterally ban anything. It would be up to the people of Alaska to discuss and decide how we would like our society to reflect our values." She personally supported bills to outlaw late term abortions and to require parental consent for underage abortions in Alaska, but rebuffed religious conservatives who wanted to legislate restrictions on abortion. That is the same policy as Begich. Regardless of his personal opinion he will leave it to the people of Alaska how they want to regulate it by democratic means.
So of all Begich voters, 30% broke for Peltola as a 2nd option and 20% left the option blank then it has nothing to do about policies but they don't want Palin and it is Begich or nobody else. Is not policy but the person. It's a mini civil war between Palin and the state GOP since she left the office. It has NOTHING to do with policies.
Some Bernie Sanders voters voted for Trump in 2016. Their first choice was Bernie and didn't want Hillary as an option. That is similar to what happened in the special election and We have to wait for the general in 2 months to see if it repeats itself but the fact is the majority of Alaskans agree with the policies of Palin and Begich and the Alaska voting system is a mess.
Murkowski did get censured by the Alaska GOP and followed it up by a strong showing in the Primary.
Begich and Palin are fairly similar on the issues, but they aren't exactly the same, Palin is clearly further right and more aligned with the Trump wing of the Party.
This wasn't even remotely the same as Bernie and Clinton in 2016. Are there always some voters who defect if their top choice or their Primary vote? Yes. Is it typically anything close to what we saw here? No Did some not vote for Hillary and go to Trump? Yes. Did Clinton only get 50% of those who backed Bernie? No. Did Trump get 30% of those who voted for Bernie in the primary? No.
Palin lost period. It wasn't due to confusing voting systems, or it being a mess. She just doesn't have an appeal outside of her base. The personal issues between Palin and Begich could have been a factor, Palin being a bit further right could have been a factor, the fact Palin resigned as Governor to go promote her brand instead could have been a factor. A combination could have been a factor, but at the end of the day, Palin did quite poor in getting Begich voters despite the two of them both being Republicans.
What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes. Sixty percent of voters selected a Republican (either Palin or Begich) as their preferred candidate, while only 40 percent selected a Democrat (Peltola), perhaps a better gauge of their actual partisan preferences. In fact, by that metric, the Alaska special election was actually an overperformance for Republicans. Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.
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Originally Posted by john3232
What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes. Sixty percent of voters selected a Republican (either Palin or Begich) as their preferred candidate, while only 40 percent selected a Democrat (Peltola), perhaps a better gauge of their actual partisan preferences. In fact, by that metric, the Alaska special election was actually an overperformance for Republicans. Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.
To put it simply, you can not argue national or even state wide dynamics in prior election when there are 3 major candidates as opposed to 2.
A reminder that Lisa Murkoski has never won a majority of the vote and that this shows Alaska is more of a coalition state with 3+ major groups rather than just the binary R vs D.
a 3 way race in Alaska is not the same as throwing in a Libertarian in say Arkansas or a Green in California.
To put it simply, you can not argue national or even state wide dynamics in prior election when there are 3 major candidates as opposed to 2.
A reminder that Lisa Murkoski has never won a majority of the vote and that this shows Alaska is more of a coalition state with 3+ major groups rather than just the binary R vs D.
a 3 way race in Alaska is not the same as throwing in a Libertarian in say Arkansas or a Green in California.
Yes,
Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.
How is taking the abortion issue from federals which was made up law in 1973 back to the people on the states to decide is forcing people what do to? It's the opposite. People of the state have the last word like Kansas. If you want a big federal government to control everything, why not burn the constitution and write a new one and this time put abortion as a right in the constitution and have the people ratify it by democratic process when NO country on earth has it in their constitution.
Pretend that judges didn't made up new law in 1973. How would you make abortion legal? By state and democratic means. What's the drama? Why would you want to give the federal government endless powers and to make all the decisions?
Don't worry. By the time pro-choice women are done, it will be codified at the state AND federal level as well as guaranteed by a constitutional amendment.
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Originally Posted by john3232
Yes,
Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.
You are missing my point, there is no "state R"
Alaska is a coalition State, Murkoski (sp) the current senator, was not even the nominee of her party 2 cycles ago. An independent won the governorship with a Democratic LG 2 cycles ago. The current state House majority is a coalition of 15 Dems, 2 Republicans and 4 independents.
its far more informative and accurate to say Alaska is split between, Liberals, moderates and Conservatives, than to ever claim it is just split between Dems and Republicans.
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