The GOP Could Blow this Election (votes, Congress, thought, Democrats)

[john3232]

Originally Posted by mkpunk

Again you ignore what the poster above spoke of...



You ignore the Kansas vote where Democrats beat out the amendment to allow the legislature to make abortions illegal in the state john3232. You ignore the New York 19th district special election results. You ignore the Alaska special election results where as https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/538 put it 29% of the Begich votes went to Peltoa which got her to 51%. You also ignore the Democratic gains in special elections like Minnesota, Nebraska and New York 23rd district but did not win. Instead john3232, you repeat Traflagar and time will tell.

I would read the 538 article which I linked if I were you John.



Now yes, 538 does say that things statistically does get worse going forward for the party in power in regards to midterms but the trend for this year has proven not as good for the Republicans. And we could see thing get worse as we hear even more from the January 6th committee.

After Biden's recent speech I'm not too sure how much longer the Dems want to run these hearings.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by mkpunk

You also ignore the Democratic gains in special elections like Minnesota, Nebraska and New York 23rd district but did not win. Instead john3232, you repeat Traflagar and time will tell.

I was discussing the Alaska election

Originally Posted by mkpunk

Again you ignore what the poster above spoke of...



You ignore the Kansas vote where Democrats beat out the amendment to allow the legislature to make abortions illegal in the state john3232. You ignore the New York 19th district special election results. You ignore the Alaska special election results where as https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/538 put it 29% of the Begich votes went to Peltoa which got her to 51%. You also ignore the Democratic gains in special elections like Minnesota, Nebraska and New York 23rd district but did not win. Instead john3232, you repeat Traflagar and time will tell.

I would read the 538 article which I linked if I were you John.



Now yes, 538 does say that things statistically does get worse going forward for the party in power in regards to midterms but the trend for this year has proven not as good for the Republicans. And we could see thing get worse as we hear even more from the January 6th committee.

I have. Thank you.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by mkpunk

And that SHOULD make the Republicans be in a good spot in regards to Congressional seats. The fact is it isn't looking as good as it should be given how we were back in November.

All that matters is this Nov.

[SanJuanStar]

Originally Posted by Smash255

You are comparing Primary races that were competitive on one side and not on the other, and mostly pre Dobbs. I was referring to the Special Elections post Dobbs.

So you based your opinion on the whole country because 2 special elections in NEW YORK and ALASKA? New York is a very democrat state and Alaska I explained the numbers and why is still a very Republican state and Dobbs has NOTHING to do with the results in Alaska. So you have really 1 example in super blue New York in district which are really Pro Choice to the numbers in many states I gave you that Republicans are coming out in higher numbers to Democrats. That shoots the myth that you repeat that Democrats are outperforming the Republicans. Is not true:



Alaska special election: Republicans 112, 783 votes 75,799 Democrats
Alaska Senate primary: Republicans 163,263 votes 12,989 Democrats.

Arizona
Governors primary: Republicans 831,508 votes Democrats 596,027 votes
Senate primary: Republicans 813,068 votes Democrats 589,400 votes

PA
Senate primary: Republicans 1,346,091 Democrats 1,284,908votes
Governor: Republicans 1,322,932votes Democrats 1,226,614 votes
LT. Governor Republicans 1,322,932 votes Democrats 1,219,946votes

Ohio

Senate primary: Republicans 1,069,826 votes Democrats 517,908 votes
Governor primary: Republicans 1,069,826 votes Democrats 509,146 votes


Wisconsin
Governor Primary Republicans 692,647 votes Democrats 256,813 votes
LT Governor Primary: Republicans 593,394 votes Democrats 462,555 votes
Senate Primary: Republicans 672,975 votes Democrats 501,089 votes

Michigan:
Governor: Primary: Republicans 1,074,198 votes Democrats: 937,580 votes


Georgia:
Senate Primary: Republicans 1,178,625 votes Democrats: 731,594 votes
Governor primary Republicans 1,204,742 votes Democrats 727,168 votes


Nevada
Senate Primary: Republicans 228,488 votes Democrats 175,244 votes
Governors Primary: Republicans 202,087 votes Democrats 146,754 votes

[mkpunk]

Originally Posted by john3232

After Biden's recent speech I'm not too sure how much longer the Dems want to run these hearings.

And that SHOULD make the Republicans be in a good spot in regards to Congressional seats. The fact is it isn't looking as good as it should be given how we were back in May, before the Dobbs leak.

Note: that is what I was supposed to have said.

Originally Posted by john3232

I was discussing the Alaska election





I have. Thank you.

And you have ignored what was stated about the fact that enough of the Begich votes went to Peltoa not Palin.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by john3232

Spin it anyway you like but I'll go with 538:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/64080687-post356.html

I actually listen to 538


they disagreed with you.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

I actually listen to 538

they disagreed with you.

Sure.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by mkpunk

And that SHOULD make the Republicans be in a good spot in regards to Congressional seats. The fact is it isn't looking as good as it should be given how we were back in May, before the Dobbs leak.

Note: that is what I was supposed to have said.



And you have ignored what was stated about the fact that enough of the Begich votes went to Peltoa not Palin.

And the Rep. will likely take the House and the Senate is still up for grabs.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by mkpunk

And that SHOULD make the Republicans be in a good spot in regards to Congressional seats. The fact is it isn't looking as good as it should be given how we were back in May, before the Dobbs leak.

Note: that is what I was supposed to have said.



And you have ignored what was stated about the fact that enough of the Begich votes went to Peltoa not Palin.

No I didn't.

Originally Posted by mkpunk

The fact is it isn't looking as good as it should be given how we were back in May, before the Dobbs leak.

Last May is lifetime in politics. All that matters is Nov.

[mkpunk]

Originally Posted by john3232

Sure.

Nope John, nope. dsjj is right that you disagree about 538. Why are you lying?