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I don't know what's going to happen in November in the Senate (house is gone) but so far the Republicans are outperforming Democrats in all primaries for the exception of New York 1 district special election which the media makes a big deal while ignores what's going on to the rest of the country. For the media to ignore that and push a different agenda and act like an arm of the Democrat party shows why the majority of Americans distrust the MSM.
So you based your opinion on the whole country because 2 special elections in NEW YORK and ALASKA? New York is a very democrat state and Alaska I explained the numbers and why is still a very Republican state and Dobbs has NOTHING to do with the results in Alaska. So you have really 1 example in super blue New York in district which are really Pro Choice to the numbers in many states I gave you that Republicans are coming out in higher numbers to Democrats. That shoots the myth that you repeat that Democrats are outperforming the Republicans. Is not true:
Again you are comparing turnout in Primary elections mostly Pre-Dobbs between competitive Primaries and non-competitive ones. As far as the NY seats, the districts in question were not Dem districts. NY-23 is a solid GOP district, and NY-19 is a swing district that if anything is slightly GOP leaning
In the Special Elections since Dobbs, we have seen:
NE-1
Partisan Lean R+21
2020 Trump +15.0
GOP won by 5.4 52.7-47.3
MN-1
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump +10.1
GOP won by 4.1, 51.0-46.9
NY-19
Partisan Lean R+4
Biden +1.5
Dem won by 2.3, 51.1-48.8
NY-23
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump + 11.2
GOP won by 6.5, 53.2-46.7
*AK-AL (2-way via RCV)
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump +10.1
Dem won by 3.0% 51.5-48.5
Now if you want to question Alaska due to the first round, that is one thing. However, it is pretty clear in the Special elections since the Dobbs decision, the districts have been stronger for the Democrats than the partisan lean would indicate and stronger for the Democrats than the Presidential results in the district.
Again you are comparing turnout in Primary elections mostly Pre-Dobbs between competitive Primaries and non-competitive ones. As far as the NY seats, the districts in question were not Dem districts. NY-23 is a solid GOP district, and NY-19 is a swing district that if anything is slightly GOP leaning
In the Special Elections since Dobbs, we have seen:
NE-1
Partisan Lean R+21
2020 Trump +15.0
GOP won by 5.4 52.7-47.3
MN-1
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump +10.1
GOP won by 4.1, 51.0-46.9
NY-19
Partisan Lean R+4
Biden +1.5
Dem won by 2.3, 51.1-48.8
NY-23
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump + 11.2
GOP won by 6.5, 53.2-46.7
*AK-AL (2-way via RCV)
Partisan Lean R+15
Trump +10.1
Dem won by 3.0% 51.5-48.5
Now if you want to question Alaska due to the first round, that is one thing. However, it is pretty clear in the Special elections since the Dobbs decision, the districts have been stronger for the Democrats than the partisan lean would indicate and stronger for the Democrats than the Presidential results in the district.
What are you spinning about? All of the turnouts that I posted came after Dobbs. Then you bring small districts fro NY and MN, 2 very Democrat states. Those are safe Democrat votes. Alaska results has NOTHING to do with Dobbs or Gun Control. I already covered that and the Republican turnout is higher than Democrat.
You have NO clue what impact Dobbs will have until the general. You just have wishful thinking. So far in the Senate and Governors primaries in many states the Republicans are outperforming Democrats in numbers.
Just because the msm ignores it and reports 1 side doesn't make it the whole picture. We have to wait in 2 months. House is gone and Senate is a toss up. Even if Dems keep the Senate, that would put in the same scenario of Republicans in 2018, which they lost the house and kept the Senate. See a pattern?
What are you spinning about? All of the turnouts that I posted came after Dobbs. Then you bring small districts fro NY and MN, 2 very Democrat states. Those are safe Democrat votes. Alaska results has NOTHING to do with Dobbs or Gun Control. I already covered that and the Republican turnout is higher than Democrat.
You have NO clue what impact Dobbs will have until the general. You just have wishful thinking. So far in the Senate and Governors primaries in many states the Republicans are outperforming Democrats in numbers.
Just because the msm ignores it and reports 1 side doesn't make it the whole picture. We have to wait in 2 months. House is gone and Senate is a toss up. Even if Dems keep the Senate, that would put in the same scenario of Republicans in 2018, which they lost the house and kept the Senate. See a pattern?
PA, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia were all prior to the actual decision came out. Competitive Primaries will pretty much always have higher turnout than non-competitive ones.
Democratic states do have some Republican districts and swing districts and vice versa. MN-1 is a Republican district, NY-23 is a Republican district, NY-19 is a swing district that is slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. That is the type of district the GOP will need to win for the GOP to win the House, especially if they are going to pick up a bunch of seats. FWIW, I do think the GOP will take the House (albeit they will not win big as thought of a few months ago and will likely wind up with a similar narrow margin the Democrats have now) and the Democrats will hold the Senate and if anything expand the majority somewhat (with PA being the most likely on either side to flip)
I'm not lying. Do you want to have a civil discussion or not.
You did. You read only what you wanted to from that 538 article. I want to say you didn't and I wouldn't have said it, but you DID. I am trying to be civil but when someone lies, they need to be called out on it.
You did. You read only what you wanted to from that 538 article. I want to say you didn't and I wouldn't have said it, but you DID. I am trying to be civil but when someone lies, they need to be called out on it.
No. I read the article and posted what I felt were the main points regarding the Alaska election. If you don't agree that's fine. But there's no need to get nasty.
PA, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia were all prior to the actual decision came out. Competitive Primaries will pretty much always have higher turnout than non-competitive ones.
Democratic states do have some Republican districts and swing districts and vice versa. MN-1 is a Republican district, NY-23 is a Republican district, NY-19 is a swing district that is slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. That is the type of district the GOP will need to win for the GOP to win the House, especially if they are going to pick up a bunch of seats. FWIW, I do think the GOP will take the House (albeit they will not win big as thought of a few months ago and will likely wind up with a similar narrow margin the Democrats have now) and the Democrats will hold the Senate and if anything expand the majority somewhat (with PA being the most likely on either side to flip)
Arizona August 2nd Florida August 23rd Michigan August 2nd. Wisconsin August 9th. None of the states were affected by the Dobbs decision and Republicans outperformed Democrats in votes. It proves that Republicans were outperforming Democrats in the primaries before Dobbs and after Dobbs because the #1 issue is the economy which I understand why Democrats wants to change the topic to Dobbs and Trump. It's their hail mary play.
Instead of the msm reporting that Republican are still outpacing Democrats in the primaries after Dobbs, they spin things and show 1 side because of a few special elections that doesn't say much about the general. The full picture is the Republicans will take the house and Senate is up for grabs. It's the same pattern in 2018 when the roles were reverse. Trump lost the house and kept the Senate. See a pattern?
Arizona August 2nd Florida August 23rd Michigan August 2nd. Wisconsin August 9th. None of the states were affected by the Dobbs decision and Republicans outperformed Democrats in votes. It proves that Republicans were outperforming Democrats in the primaries before Dobbs and after Dobbs because the #1 issue is the economy which I understand why Democrats wants to change the topic to Dobbs and Trump. It's their hail mary play.
Instead of the msm reporting that Republican are still outpacing Democrats in the primaries after Dobbs, they spin things and show 1 side because of a few special elections that doesn't say much about the general. The full picture is the Republicans will take the house and Senate is up for grabs. It's the same pattern in 2018 when the roles were reverse. Trump lost the house and kept the Senate. See a pattern?
Which of those states had competitive Primaries on the Democratic side? Which ones had competitive Primaries on the GOP side? Other than Florida (which I have stated the Democrats are not going to win), the states you mentioned all had more competitive Primaries on the GOP side. It gets difficult to extrapolate Primary turnout when the competitiveness of the Primaries aren't the same.
Fact of the matter is Republicans were outperforming Democrats in Special Elections pre-Dobbs, and Democrats are out-performing Republicans post-Dobbs. What it all means for November, remains to be seen, but the GOP momentum isn't as strong now as it was a few months ago.
Which of those states had competitive Primaries on the Democratic side? Which ones had competitive Primaries on the GOP side? Other than Florida (which I have stated the Democrats are not going to win), the states you mentioned all had more competitive Primaries on the GOP side. It gets difficult to extrapolate Primary turnout when the competitiveness of the Primaries aren't the same.
Fact of the matter is Republicans were outperforming Democrats in Special Elections pre-Dobbs, and Democrats are out-performing Republicans post-Dobbs. What it all means for November, remains to be seen, but the GOP momentum isn't as strong now as it was a few months ago.
So your bar is a few "special elections" in very blue states so that tells the whole country's mood? You are grasping at the straws. The fact is Republicans will take Congress, keep the majority of governorship, keep the majority of the state legislative branches of the country , keep 6-3 advantage in the S.C. and be very competitive in the Senate shows you it's not a Democrat turn around to keep Congress.
The fact is that Pelosi could only keep Congress for 4 years shows Dobbs is not what the media paints it.
This has 2 options, Republicans takes the house and senate while keeping the majority of the governorship and state legislative branches with a 6-3 Supreme Court.
or
Republicans takes the house, loses the Senate and keep the rest like in 2018 making 2024 very interesting.
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