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The problem of the condition of economic reforms of IMF loans for Ukraine is they're focusing on the symptoms (high government debt) of a Kleptocracy instead of the cause - plundering of Ukrainian assets by the politician-oligarchy class. Instead of extracting the debt on the back of the citizens of Ukraine they should recover the debt by expropriating the funds and assets of those responsible and have profited by the plundering of assets of Ukraine (the politician-oligarchy class). Making that country adopt some of the worst traits of a capitalistic market economy would only lower the standard of living for the average Ukrainian and put their economy into a more pronounced negative cycle by reducing the amount of disposable income available for the average Ukrainian.
The uprising in Kiev has apparently reached its conclusion. President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition reached an agreement, negotiated by the Polish, German and French foreign ministers. The parliament is now effectively in charge, deciding who will be ministers and when elections will be held, whether to dismiss judges and so on.
Perhaps that Putin is now playing Gambit. Protestants gained power, made many mistakes, triggering popular discontent. In such a situation it's easy to find people who really want to be with Russia and who is dangerous for Russia. Soon the time will bring back Yanukovych (or another person, loyal to Russia).
Familiar in Crimea believe that the situation is very complicated.
People seriously wants to secede from Ukraine.
Familiar in Crimea believe that the situation is very complicated.
People seriously wants to secede from Ukraine.
Maybe I can learn something here ..please. If Mr. Krushchev gave the Crimea back to Ukraine wasn't it 'sovereign' in the
sense that it was part of Ukraine. I don't know it kind of seems like maybe he 'lent' it to them since Vlad is now getting military exercises going (I know I know it was already 'planned' months ago already cough cough). Frankly, any 'troubles' on the border I know Vlad will go in.
Maybe I can learn something here ..please. If Mr. Krushchev gave the Crimea back to Ukraine wasn't it 'sovereign' in the
sense that it was part of Ukraine. I don't know it kind of seems like maybe he 'lent' it to them since Vlad is now getting military exercises going (I know I know it was already 'planned' months ago already cough cough). Frankly, any 'troubles' on the border I know Vlad will go in.
Gave to the Ukraine SSR; I do not know why the West, Russia, everyone, values artificial border lines drawn by the likes of Stalin and others so much. This dispute is still the continuation of the unsettled issues resulting from the USSR breaking up. Instead of an orderly break-up, it went away fast (I do not blame them for taking advantage of the moment). Like Africa and the Middle East after colonization, borders were drawn without much thouoght into the loca populations, by from a standpoint of centralized control, and still sparks disputes to this day.
And for Crimea, really, who wants to be attached to a nearly bankrupted country? Out of all of the newly created countries recently, Crimea has the most legitiamcy to its claims of independence from Ukraine, much more so than Kosovo ever had.
And really, is Ukraine, a country who ahs gone through two revolts in the last ten years and is nearly bankrupted, ready to enage over Crimea? An area it which its history shows has never really been part of Ukraine (and never been culturally) other than the later part of the Soviet period?
As for the military exercises (having been a participant in many during my military career), you give Russia way too much credit. Russia in no way can organize over 100k troops, hundreds of tanks, artillery, jets, etc, all in such a short notice. If they could, they would have an amazing command and control system, exceeding even the US. Large scale exercises like this take months of planning and organizing, movement of troops, logistics, etc, and would be very costly if to delay or cancel.
"Frankly, any 'troubles' on the border I know Vlad will go in."
Countries usually may send in assistance if there is trouble on the border. The US sends the DEA around to combat cartels, and I am sure if Mexico erupted in a conflict, the US would have a presence in it also. The US invaded Grenada, remember? The Congressional report stated that justification for the invasion was the chance that US medical students could have been taken hostage.
This dispute is still the continuation of the unsettled issues resulting from the USSR breaking up
.
I could agree with that. I'd go further. It's a continuation of WWII as well where peoples and state boundaries were all subject to negotiations as well as qualifications and disruptions of 'territorial integrities'. All the borders of Central and Eastern Europe have a history of constant strife and change. With the dissolution of the Republics, we can see how Russia is involved with this scenario in South Ossetia for example. If Russia sees a problem it doesn't like, military intervention is usually a card that can be played. And really what can the Eu and the West really do after all if they do? Shoot rockets into Moscow? Not.
I put all this in relief with a little story. When Krushchev was here at the United Nations he got a bit furious with a Filipino diplomat. He called him a 'sycophant of American capitalism'. He also said, 'You'd better watch out or we'll show you Kuzma's mother!' So it looks like we can say 'Kuzma's mother' has now made an appearance in the Crimea, Kharkiv or Rostov-on-Don too?...;-)...
We should be curious as to how Russia handles Ukraine's 'territorial integrity'. Now I surely can see them being concerned since it is the home of the fleet and needed for national security. But I'd seriously question their concern of the absolutely discredited Mr. Y (btw he was a fine capitalist wasn't he??) in combination with the Crimea as well since that seems to be a crucial new flashpoint and a tinderbox. Why they would waste their time seemingly even to give him an ounce of creedence or notice after what happened to him and his followers would be very puzzling in this tense situation. Frankly, I think he'd be better off getting a dachau and writing his memoirs. But he, to some, apparently could be used as a pawn here to stoke up all the poisons of history that never have flowed away. Ukraine sadly is heading for disaster with these kinds of statesmen hanging around. So I hope Lavrov, Medvedev, Putin and Kerry can get their heads together on this one focusing on 'Kuzma's mother'.
"We should be curious as to how Russia handles Ukraine's 'territorial integrity'."
I am interested, but I really am trying to find the logic of getting all hot and bothered over a nearly bankrupted country of 45 million poor people. I think it is more of an issue of geopolitical pride than actual logic. The entire NATO issue with Russia is moot because NATO will never attack Russia, and Russia will never attack NATO; the results are too damaging and all in all, Russia and Europe get along great, in which this relationship bothers only a few people in a few countries.
The question of Ukrainian territorial integrity is interesting; Yanukovich if recognized as the legitimate president, has authority to invite foreign assistance in, no different than the US invading Haiti to restore Aristide. The biggest difference is the US had the backing of the UN, while Russia would never in its life get the backing of the UN for anything, even a direct attack on Russia. Also, the new Haiti gov was not recognized whereas the new Ukrainian gov is recognized by the world's important players.
I think the best thing to happen would be:
- Yanukovich officially resign in turn for Ukraine to not pursue him or anyone for crimes, and with this Russia gives full recognition to the Ukrainian gov.
- Russia extend the same economic offer to the new Ukraine gov.
- Ukraine allow Crimea a vote on its path.
- Ukraine restore the Russian language laws; this seriously put a large divide, not a great way to start off the gov if this was one of the priorities.
- Ukraine acknowledge the involvement of radical elements of the protesters, and take steps to curb nationalism (which is actually anti-Russian, Romanian, etc).
- Take a look at allowing the country to divide up peacefully, the same as Czech and Slovakia did.
Edit: actually, nothing in Ukraine is going to work unless they rid of the nazi faction in government. This faction is opposing the other faction led by Tymenshenko (well, she is part of).
I think really, all Russia has to do it sit back and wait for Ukraine to collapse again due to these two fighting for power. There is not going to be any private investment in Ukraine. Another poster on another thread summed it up well.
I doubt the East-West division is going to be an issue in the near future. Neither Russia nor Europe seem to be interested in splitting up the Ukraine, for now, and there is more separatist hot air coming from some activists in the East than there is popular outrage. Crimea may be the one exception, but Russia again is not interested in taking control over it. Sevastopol will be placated and "pacified" soon, but with little to no violence so as not to provoke Russia.
Now, here are the problems. Two powerful fractions came to power as a result of the Maidan uprising: the Oligarchy and the Ukrainian Nationalists (I'll call them the Neo-Nazis, from now on: to see why anything else would be misleading, acquaint yourself with the history of the Svoboda party - the second major party of the Opposition - and the Right Sector, the well-armed brownshirt brigades that currently patrol the streets of Kiev and western Ukrainian cities).
But the dominant party of the Opposition is the Fatherland party, lead by Julia Tymoshenko (anyone interested in Ukrainian politics should acquaint himself with her very checkered past). It is the party of the Oligarchy that Yanukovich managed to alienate over the course of his presidency. It is the party of the owners of the press and of the industrial infrastructure left over from the Soviet days and stolen by the oligarchs in the heady 1990's (with Tymoshenko being one of them). They felt Yanukovich was a threat (when he imprisoned Tymoshenko and started to "expropriate the expropriators", turning his son and Serhiy Kurchenko, his son's shady 28-year-friend into billionaires over the course of a few years), so they turned against him, including those who financed his election back in 2010. They pandered to the Ukrainian Nationalists, to Western Ukraine, but this is pure cynical political pandering: most of the Oligarchs and the Fatherland party leadership are from the East, very few of them are native Ukrainian speakers, only a minority of them are ethnic Ukrainians.
This is the fraction that the US and Europe backed when they started throwing gasoline into the Ukrainian fire. The calculation was that it would be nothing more than a repeat of the Orange Revolution, which brought Yuschenko and Tymoshenko to power, and everyone went home. The problem is, this time there were the Neo-Nazis. The Neo-Nazis, though weak overall (Svoboda gets about 10% of the national vote in national elections, meaning around 25-30% in the western regions, much less so in central regions and virtually none in the east and south), are militant, exceedingly well organized and are lead by fairly intelligent people. Currently, the Ukrainian police is demoralized, the special forces (Berkut) were disbanded under the pressure of the Neo-Nazi fraction, and the party of the Oligarchy is as weak, purely in the sense of the number of people with guns they have at their disposal, as Yanukovich was the day of his flight. The Neo-Nazis, though their brownshirt brigades are relatively few in number, at the most a few thousand people nationwide, are armed, unified, motivated, and militant. They control Kiev, as the local police is disorganized and scared of repressions (some Berkut officers were executed on the spot when caught, most others are on the run or hiding and waiting to be arrested, which was a brilliant strategic move by the Neo-Nazis at demoralizing the police).
The Oligarchy may try to use the army to put down the Maidan rebellion and the Right Sector brigades (with the West press hailing it this time as victory over counter-revolutionaires and terrorists, even though it will be largely the same people getting mowed down that Yanukovych tried to remove), but this creates the possibility of a military coup and other unpredictable and unpleasant consequences.
And so, there is a stand-off. Neo-Nazis versus the Oligarchs. The Neo-Nazis will not leave the Maidan, even when the common people, disillusioned and bitter over what they have wrought, will, and so it'll be interesting to see how it will play out.
I predict that the Oligarchy will win and disperse the neo-Nazis without having to share power. Tymoshenko already ruled as Prime Minister for most of 2005-2010, so Ukrainians know what to expect in theory (not much, business as usual), but unfortunately the IMF loan conditions and the inerasable mark on Ukraine - "Politically Unstable. Dangerous for Private Property" - will finish off what's left of the Ukrainian economy until the next election cycle, after which either a dictatorship will have to be declared, or massive voting fraud perpetrated, or the new Rada (Parliament) will be made up largely of Neo-Nazis from the West and Communists and Separatists from the East. This will lead to a non-functional Parliament and either the end of Ukraine as a single country, or the end of democracy in the country.
And yes, most Maidan rioters only wanted to protest the extreme corruption, oligarchic thievery and poverty in the Ukraine. What they brought upon themselves is the destruction of the Ukrainian economy and quite likely of Ukraine itself. Kinda similar to Russia in 1917, which makes their ongoing destruction of Lenin statutes ironic on quite a few levels.
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