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Old 03-06-2014, 12:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
Yet a coup is in accordance to the Ukrainian constitution?
Don't make such a dubious () face. It was just a quote. I didn't state any personal opinion on that.

I posted for the benefit of all forum members/readers just to inform and without any intention to insult anybody.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muscovite View Post
Except Ukraine is not choosing freely, there are external parties influencing events in Ukraine.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:02 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
But the EU had no problem with Kosovo declaring independence.
Did you EU consider it "illegal" when the US bombed Serbia? Or invaded Iraq?

International laws is only used when the EU find it convenient to. What a bunch of hypocrits. The double standard of western countries never ceases to amaze me.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by travric View Post
Not sure if it's noted that the West has ramped up things in NATO as a result of the events in Ukraine. I tell you I really wonder if Western military force would ever be used in some NATO countries around the Russian border. 'Provocations' there, if they occur, would surely be more destablizing than what we're seeing now.
NATO could not even enforce a three month no-fly-zone over Libya without the US carrying the load, and the US even had to supply munitions because other NATO countries ran out.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:08 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by movingwiththewind View Post
Don't make such a dubious () face. It was just a quote. I didn't state any personal opinion on that.

I posted for the benefit of all forum members/readers just to inform and without any intention to insult anybody.
I was not implying it was your opinion, my face was towards the statement. Apologies for the misunderstanding.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
I was not implying it was your opinion, my face was towards the statement. Apologies for the misunderstanding.
No apology necessary.

I'd wondering though, would not Russia have taken the Crimea (and the rest of Ukraine) for themselves IN ANY CASE SCENARIO, coup or not?

Especially taken into consideration that Putin offered lots of money for not signing the Association Agreement with the EU.

Why have the protests in the Ukraine started in the first place?

Last edited by movingwiththewind; 03-06-2014 at 12:26 PM..
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by movingwiththewind View Post
No apology necessary.

I'd wondering though, would not Russia have taken the Crimea (and the rest of Ukraine) for themselves IN ANY CASE SCENARIO, coup or not?

Especially taken into consideration that Putin offered lots of money for not signing the Association Agreement with the EU.

Why have the protests in the Ukraine started in the first place?
I think as long as Ukraine did not swing radical, and Russia felt its Black Sea port was secured, then I do not think Russia would intervene. They certainly did not after the Orange revolt, but this revolt had much more radical elements than the Orange. I am certain the two main factions now are going to start infighting as soon as the realization comes that would group are radicals, the other are oligarchs.

Ukraine nationalists (there is ethnic Ukrainians, Ukrainian nationals, and mixed groups, as well as numerous other ethnic groups in Ukraine, which for this purpose, Ukraine nationalists are there own group); have always been causing "problems" in the area (right or wrong). They have been in conflict with about every group in the Ukraine area, especially the Cossacks. So the "root" of these protests are not knew, they are just well organized now, centered around Kiev (this would not happen if the capitol was Kharkov), have three months to sit around and protest (everyone else lives far away and has to work), and it was great timing and luck to have spear headed the coup.

Jailing Tymenshenko was a mistake. While she was guilty, so are others including Yanukovich, and her jailing basically put the oligarchs against him (my theory, but Yanukovich crossed that unspoken line). If she would had not been in jail, this coup would not have happened. Putting her in jail just signaled to other oligarchs the unspoken line means nothing.

Putin offered a great deal, and strictly economically speaking, Ukraine is best to go with it. While I like to see Ukraine and Russia closer with the EU, now was not the time for Ukraine to go, they were not in any shape to do so. Those protesters had no idea the economic consequences; better yet, they did have an idea and this is a way to remove power from the east, destroy the eastern economy.
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:07 PM
 
1,863 posts, read 5,149,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
I think as long as Ukraine did not swing radical, and Russia felt its Black Sea port was secured, then I do not think Russia would intervene. They certainly did not after the Orange revolt, but this revolt had much more radical elements than the Orange. I am certain the two main factions now are going to start infighting as soon as the realization comes that would group are radicals, the other are oligarchs.

Ukraine nationalists (there is ethnic Ukrainians, Ukrainian nationals, and mixed groups, as well as numerous other ethnic groups in Ukraine, which for this purpose, Ukraine nationalists are there own group); have always been causing "problems" in the area (right or wrong). They have been in conflict with about every group in the Ukraine area, especially the Cossacks. So the "root" of these protests are not knew, they are just well organized now, centered around Kiev (this would not happen if the capitol was Kharkov), have three months to sit around and protest (everyone else lives far away and has to work), and it was great timing and luck to have spear headed the coup.

Jailing Tymenshenko was a mistake. While she was guilty, so are others including Yanukovich, and her jailing basically put the oligarchs against him (my theory, but Yanukovich crossed that unspoken line). If she would had not been in jail, this coup would not have happened. Putting her in jail just signaled to other oligarchs the unspoken line means nothing.

Putin offered a great deal, and strictly economically speaking, Ukraine is best to go with it. While I like to see Ukraine and Russia closer with the EU, now was not the time for Ukraine to go, they were not in any shape to do so. Those protesters had no idea the economic consequences; better yet, they did have an idea and this is a way to remove power from the east, destroy the eastern economy.
All sounds nice, but what would happen if Ukraine, somewhere in the future, made a step towards closer ties with EU?

It looks to me that Russia would not intervene while it felt it had Ukraine in its grip. Would Ukraine try to loosen that grip even a little bit, what would hapen then?
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by movingwiththewind View Post
All sounds nice, but what would happen if Ukraine, somewhere in the future, made a step towards closer ties with EU?

It looks to me that Russia would not intervene while it felt it had Ukraine in its grip. Would Ukraine try to loosen that grip even a little bit, what would hapen then?
I think as long as Russia felt its port is secure, they do not care. being closer to the EU does not put the port in danger, but having a radical government does. Ukraine has been constantly getting closer and closer to the EU, even with Yanukovich.

But I think the entire premises of the revolt is what alerted Russia. While everyone screams "Hitler, Hitler! took Austria!", there are also numerous cases where a group has taken power, and oppressed other groups in the country; that scenario has happened much more often than the "Hitler takes Austria" scenario. My opinion is the new gov sure as heck did not take actions that proved otherwise it did not have oppression on its mind.

Another what-if scenario; what if Russia did not intervene, and the new gov went on a rampage against the ethnic Russian (and others) population? What would have bee the West's actions then? What would be the West's actions if they intervened?
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong / Vienna
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
Another what-if scenario; what if Russia did not intervene, and the new gov went on a rampage against the ethnic Russian (and others) population? What would have bee the West's actions then? What would be the West's actions if they intervened?
Well, the west would have condemned a scenario like this. But there were no signs that anything like that would have happened.
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