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The Euro 12z looks like it basically has Dorian missing the U.S. entirely. It's gonna basically pass east of New England late next week and then head into the North Atlantic. If that holds true, the first real landfall might be as an extratropical cyclone when it hits Ireland and Britain in like 10-14 days. Now that's of course crystal ball territory still..
Sadly their models haven't improved in 20 years, wouldn't surprise me if it makes an eventual U-turn; missing the U.S. entirely.
They do a terrible job at forecasting hurricane landfall. It's aggravating the news gets everyone into a frenzy then have it all be for nothing in the end. Seriously f... them for that. Seems like it was better 15-20 yrs ago than now.
They do a terrible job at forecasting hurricane landfall. It's aggravating the news gets everyone into a frenzy then have it all be for nothing in the end. Seriously f... them for that. Seems like it was better 15-20 yrs ago than now.
Home Depot pays them off to get more biss. It was much better in the 70's.
I stand corrected!!
Beauty about Tropical Tidbits is you can go back and check previous runs
Heres the GFS 2 days before the Euro figured it out. It was 1st to have the idea. But lost its touch with the updates after this. Not bad though. Unfortunately it let the Euro catch on consistently and then it followed
GFS 18z continues to forecast that it will 'scrape' Florida's East Coast and then basically march North-Northeast along the U.S. coast passing the Outer Banks very narrowly before making a further NE turn.
Funnily enough, the German model still sees it make landfall Tuesday early morning somewhere between West Palm Beach and Melbourne before turning northwards while over the state of Florida. I'd probably take a Euro/GFS consensus over that to be fair .
GFS 18z continues to forecast that it will 'scrape' Florida's East Coast and then basically march North-Northeast along the U.S. coast passing the Outer Banks very narrowly before making a further NE turn.
Funnily enough, the German model still sees it make landfall Tuesday early morning somewhere between West Palm Beach and Melbourne before turning northwards while over the state of Florida. I'd probably take a Euro/GFS consensus over that to be fair .
That ridge needs to not expand westward! There might be some headaches with those following this.
It could be a very close call for a bunch of areas. What's concerning to me is just how slow this storm is moving, and when I point out how slow it is I don't mean that this is in itself a major issue in terms of determining where it moves, it's just that this allows for a lot more atmospheric changes to occur before this one is done with i.e. a lot more twists and turns.
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