Covid virus in phoenix (Surprise, Goodyear: schedule, clinic, seller)

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by LBTRS

Lol, I guess we need to fact check the "fake news" on the forum also (not saying yours is wrong, I have no idea what is correct anymore). Someone just posted a link showing they went up. 1000 is a lot larger than the 3 you have on June 1st.

https://www.azfamily.com/news/contin...pitalizations/

There are three new cases shown for both Monday and Tuesday, but with the following footnote:

It could take 3-7 days for hospitalization numbers for a specific day to be reported. Therefore, hospitalizations for the most recent days shown in the above line graph will most likely be underreported. Please continue to check back regularly.

So basically, we cannot yet trust any number that's less than about a week old, due to reporting delays. Also, 1000 must be the total number of COVID patients currently in hospital, not the number of new admissions in a day. (Number of new COVID admissions has never exceeded 70 in any single day, according to the graphs).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by belgirl

And actually the rate of hospitalizations has gone down:

May 26 - 29
May 27 - 22
May 28 - 23
May 29 - 19
May 30 - 10
May 31 - 11
June 1 - 3
June 2 - 3

40 people died in AZ of COVID in the past 24 hours https://azbigmedia.com/business/covi...ncrease-by-40/ . Unless 40 people died in their home without going to the hospital.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

40 people died in AZ of COVID in the past 24 hours https://azbigmedia.com/business/covi...ncrease-by-40/ . Unless 40 people died in their home without going to the hospital.

I think the numbers she posted shows NEW patients admitted each day, not the total hospitalized those days. As someone else pointed out, the numbers aren't finalized until about a week past each day, so the numbers will change.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

I think the numbers she posted shows NEW patients admitted each day, not the total hospitalized those days. As someone else pointed out, the numbers aren't finalized until about a week past each day, so the numbers will change.

My bad. Thanks for clarifying.

[Ponderosa]

Anecdotally, a relative who has been working the COVID floor informed me that COVID capacity in some of the hospitals in their system has been reached so they are opening a new "floor" for COVIDs at hers. That certainly does not make it sound like the pandemic is receding in the Phoenix metro.

As for data, the Maricopa County website is much more consistent and easier to make sense of than the state site. There is a table on the county site that lists the new cases, hospitalizations etc each day. The graphs have to be viewed carefully as they are only current/correct up to a week back as it still can take that long to get test results still. But no matter how you look at them, there is little evidence that COVID is declining statistically or is even flattening.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by asufan

I think the numbers she posted shows NEW patients admitted each day, not the total hospitalized those days. As someone else pointed out, the numbers aren't finalized until about a week past each day, so the numbers will change.

Yep-correct. There is a difference between the number of hospitalizations and the rate of hospitalizations per day.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Anecdotally, a relative who has been working the COVID floor informed me that COVID capacity in some of the hospitals in their system has been reached so they are opening a new "floor" for COVIDs at hers. That certainly does not make it sound like the pandemic is receding in the Phoenix metro.

As for data, the Maricopa County website is much more consistent and easier to make sense of than the state site. There is a table on the county site that lists the new cases, hospitalizations etc each day. The graphs have to be viewed carefully as they are only current/correct up to a week back as it still can take that long to get test results still. But no matter how you look at them, there is little evidence that COVID is declining statistically or is even flattening.

Is this the county website you're talking about?

https://www.maricopa.gov/DocumentCen...er=home-button

Looking at the moving average line, the rate of new cases reported is still increasing. But the rate of new hospitalizations seems to have peaked in early May.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Is this the county website you're talking about?

https://www.maricopa.gov/DocumentCen...er=home-button

Looking at the moving average line, the rate of new cases reported is still increasing. But the rate of new hospitalizations seems to have peaked in early May.

That's it. The hospitalizations have come down but not a lot and then this week the numbers are back up again, although it does not look as though that is in the graph yet.

12 News also note the trend in a report today:

https://www.12news.com/article/news/...1-7244648073a0

I don't see any way Ducey is going back on or even slowing his reopening plans, so unless this is just a blip, we are going to be hit hard this summer. Individuals can do their own social distancing without Ducey telling them to, but they need to know that risks are rising and that information is just not getting out there. In fact, it seems the state is deliberately understating the risk to justify its actions. Not a good plan at all.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

That's it. The hospitalizations have come down but not a lot and then this week the numbers are back up again, although it does not look as though that is in the graph yet.

12 News also note the trend in a report today:

https://www.12news.com/article/news/...1-7244648073a0

I don't see any way Ducey is going back on or even slowing his reopening plans, so unless this is just a blip, we are going to be hit hard this summer. Individuals can do their own social distancing without Ducey telling them to, but they need to know that risks are rising and that information is just not getting out there. In fact, it seems the state is deliberately understating the risk to justify its actions. Not a good plan at all.

Thanks for the article. Sure, I agree that Ducey will not modify the reopening plans.

We leave the house very little these days, doing most transactions by delivery or curbside pickup. Sprouts is the only place we go into regularly, and I will say the level of compliance regarding masks and distancing is quite good there. On the other hand, I've seen mediocre to poor compliance at some other businesses as well as local parks.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Thanks for the article. Sure, I agree that Ducey will not modify the reopening plans.

We leave the house very little these days, doing most transactions by delivery or curbside pickup. Sprouts is the only place we go into regularly, and I will say the level of compliance regarding masks and distancing is quite good there. On the other hand, I've seen mediocre to poor compliance at some other businesses as well as local parks.

Masks are worn pretty extensively inside most of the stores I've been to lately. Employees wear them non stop, and a sizeable number of customers are also wearing them. The issue is not so much if people are wearing them, but how effective they are. The vast majority of masks are only able to filter a small percentage of allergens & microbes ... so they're really more for showing that you're making an attempt to reduce the spread. As for the "poor compliance" at parks or anywhere else outdoors, it's pretty obvious that wearing masks in this heat is extremely uncomfortable to say the least.