Covid virus in phoenix (Parks: averages, capita, bowling)
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You mentioned in 4 different posts about the heat. So it seems you are stuck on the increased infection rates of the southern states. There is no chance in Hell that infection rates increase with warm weather. You could google it 100 different ways and come up empty. Not a person in the world thinks that heat enhances infection rates. Rather, the opposite.
It's very rare to find anybody who will admit the COVID virus could be enhanced by heat ... although, I did find this one link, which didn’t take a great deal of searching: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-humidity.aspx
Especially interesting are these statements:
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Earlier research indicated that the spread of the virus is much less under conditions of high humidity and temperature. However, the current study seems to show that the virus spreads with equal ease and rapidity in such environments as all. This is suggested by the cluster transmission of the virus to 8 healthy people who used the bath within six days of the index case.
Here's what we know for sure: there are all kinds of studies, research, and data pertaining to this virus, and hardly any of them are consistent. The fact is that the hotter Sunbelt regions have experienced a massive hike in confirmed cases with Arizona being one of the big leaders. On the other hand, many other locations (mostly in the cooler, less sunny, northern regions of the U.S.) have few or no outbreaks.
Some counties are reporting cases near ZERO, such as Boundary County, Idaho near the Canadian border. Montana (where I'm headed later this summer) has the fewest number of cases in the U.S. Other cooler states such as Maine, Vermont, Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, New Hampshire also have very few cases. These states are low in population, which is also a factor, but your state of Minnesota also is reporting far fewer cases than Arizona, despite Minnesota only having about 1.5 million fewer people than Arizona. I brought this up before.
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Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
Since the rates are increasing, obviously, the weighted average of other variables matters more. It could something as simple as the mutation of COVID https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...es-global.html that is more dominant in the southern states. Though I've googled it to death for AZ and no one is discussing this specific stand/mutilation here. It's obvious people in the southern states have their windows closed and are inside more. Inside==higher infection rates. Additionally, people in more conservative states are getting hit harder. I think we know why.
So staying inside our single family homes with the A/C running carries a greater risk of infection than hanging with the tubing crowd at the Salt River?! While there are more people inside during the hotter months, the Sunbelt regions also have lots of people out & about at beaches, parks, recreational areas, etc. I finally know somebody (not very personally) who was tested positive for COVID. What I do know about her: 20 to 44 age range, sun lover, avid outdoors person. I don't know where she contracted the virus, but I heard she was pretty sick for nearly 2 weeks.
Regarding your political spin (quite interesting for somebody who claims to have never voted for a Democrat): both Florida & Arizona might lean conservative, but are really swing states, as is North Carolina. California is another hard hit state, but are you seriously claiming that CA is conservative? Regardless, politics should be irrelevant in this topic, especially since both major parties have serious flaws.
The IHME model that included masking shows the curves of infections begin to diverge on Jul 16. After that there is a steep drop in new cases under the mask scenario and a continued slow climb without. These models use algorithms derived from experiences in Asia. We'll see how it works out.
(I forget and don't want to go back and read them again, but I believe the parameters include 80% mask compliance. I doubt we have that in Phx. )
I think you are correct on the 80% compliance. Is that masks with social distancing or just wearing masks?
This is from yesterday. We’re the laughing stock of the world.
I think the entire world is watching what's going on in our country in utter disbelief. While even some of the poorest of countries are finding ways to tame this lion, we continue to squander.
I was (and still am) highly opposed to the forced closure & restrictions of commerce. It makes absolutely no sense what states like AZ, CA, and TX are doing: close practically everything down, reopen, then do another shutdown. It's a vicious cycle of getting nowhere, and we have proof that the closures weren't very effective as far as stopping the spread. An economic disaster is far worse than this virus when you look at the big picture.
Never was I opposed to social distancing and mask wearing, although I have doubts that even those are completely fool proof. Regardless, making everybody wear masks is a much more reasonable approach than forcing businesses to close & pushing the economy off a cliff. Let businesses stay open, but they need to be much more vigilant about people who go inside without masks. Just like the "no shirt, no shoes, no service rule", masks should also be included. Management & employees at any place of business need to enforce this, and they have every right to make these non compliers leave. If they don't, that's where police action can take over.
I still think personal hygiene and even climate are factors as well. Notice the northern tier of the U.S. has the fewest number of confirmed cases recently, whereas the warm/hot weather places (FL, TX, AZ, CA) have drastic increases. It's not just because people are staying inside more around A/C ventilation ... in fact, many are out & about. The ones who are constantly out & about while not taking precautions are the ones putting themselves & others at risk.
You criticize California for locking down early, then reopening, then locking down again. But as of July 2, Los Angeles County (population 10 Million), the most infected county in the State, had an infection rate of 9.0. As of July 2 Arizona had an infection rate of 24.2 Does a lock down, masks and social distancing work? You bet it does.
Actually, I don't see that is the case in Gilbert. I went on a shopping spree today (yeah, don't hate, there were things I needed to get) and out of all 5 stores, including Walmart, everyone was wearing a mask except one big Mexican guy in Fry's. Even the teens were wearing masks. I will be interested to see if shutting down the bars, clubs and gyms will make any difference.
"One big Mexican guy"...did you get his name? How big was he? Was he waving a Mexican Flag?
Actually, I don't see that is the case in Gilbert. I went on a shopping spree today (yeah, don't hate, there were things I needed to get) and out of all 5 stores, including Walmart, everyone was wearing a mask except one big Mexican guy in Fry's. Even the teens were wearing masks. I will be interested to see if shutting down the bars, clubs and gyms will make any difference.
I’ve noticed almost everybody is wearing a mask around me too. I hope things start slowing down in a few weeks.
It's very rare to find anybody who will admit the COVID virus could be enhanced by heat ... although, I did find this one link, which didn’t take a great deal of searching: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-humidity.aspx
Admit?? Interesting choice of words.... You didn't find a link that shows "heat and humidity reduces the transmission of COVID". Rather, heat and humidity don't seem to help all that much. I was saying that all along. More specifically, it probably kills the virus but other variables are much more important. Before you take a victory lap, find me something credible that suggests "heat and humidity help the spread". You might be the only person in the world floating that idea.
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Originally Posted by Valley Native
Some counties are reporting cases near ZERO, such as Boundary County, Idaho near the Canadian border. Montana (where I'm headed later this summer) has the fewest number of cases in the U.S. Other cooler states such as Maine, Vermont, Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, New Hampshire also have very few cases. These states are low in population, which is also a factor, but your state of Minnesota also is reporting far fewer cases than Arizona, despite Minnesota only having about 1.5 million fewer people than Arizona. I brought this up before.
You found nothing to validate your POV and you are back on it with the cooler states. One difference is that cooler states (Maine, AK, ND, NH, ID, MT) all have fairly homogeneous populations (white) and are spread out or farther apart. So culturally speaking, they are not living in multigenerational homes and outbreaks take longer to take off. But rest assured, it will eventually come their way. Maybe tourism in the Idaho panhandle? Spots like NE, SD, and IA have meatpacking plants that have been beefing up the transmission (pun intended).
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Originally Posted by Valley Native
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So staying inside our single family homes with the A/C running carries a greater risk of infection than hanging with the tubing crowd at the Salt River?!
I assumed you knew that I comparing apples to apples. If I was in a restaurant or business in northern MN, chances are the air-conditioned would be turned off or it barely runs. Or if it wasn't raining, businesses have their free airconditioning on.... as in, they would open some windows.
In the northern states, people want to eat outside. When it is hot and humid, people want to be inside. In the northern states, the slower season for movies, bowling, clubbing, etc is the summer. It's the opposite of the hot states as they congregate inside.
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Originally Posted by Valley Native
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Regarding your political spin (quite interesting for somebody who claims to have never voted for a Democrat): both Florida & Arizona might lean conservative, but are really swing states, as is North Carolina. California is another hard hit state, but are you seriously claiming that CA is conservative? Regardless, politics should be irrelevant in this topic, especially since both major parties have serious flaws.
As for who I voted for. I voted for Ross Perot (x2) and the idiotic Jesse Venture once. To date, 100% republican for one reason: because they are fiscally conservative (I'm cheap). As I age and become more objective, I'm slowly becoming more socially liberal and still fiscally conservative. When I was younger, I oversimplified why people are where they are.
I refused to vote for Hillary or Trump last go around so I sustained. So no, I never voted for a democrat... Yet. I will vote for Biden with my nose plugged this go around. Unless he picks Stacy Abrams. Whoever Biden picks will be the president once Biden can hide his own easter eggs. While I can list a couple of dozen things I like about Trump, he is too toxic for me to ever vote for him.
It's not "political spin" and I am surprised I'm going to have to explain how things work. All that matters is who is at the top directing traffic for the sheep. And exclusively because TX, FL, and AZ had governors who had their head up the president's arse, they refused to lead until they were in a headlock. They knew the sheep (their base) would be upset so they didn't know how to lead. Once those governors said "put on the masks", their sheep listened. It should be obvious that it's political to anyone who is paying attention.
My point being if Trump said, "I'm going to wear one of these ugly masks because it helps" then the governors and people walking the streets wouldn't have made it political. Because in pretty much in any state, 40% or more are voters in the other party that is not in power. Purple states are simply swinging states. Think deeper.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 07-05-2020 at 06:11 AM..
Ducey this week activated crisis protocols that could permit overwhelmed hospitals to deny care to patients whose age or health history make them poor candidates for recovery
I saw that and immediately had a bunch of questions.
- Is this a last-ditch measure for when all other avenues are exhausted, or are we planning to just give up on finding new beds?
- Is this limited to new admissions, or could they wheel a patient out to the parking lot in favor of someone with a better prognosis?
- Could a hospital designate 5 beds for COVID, claim they're "overwhelmed," and have the rest of the facility go back to their lucrative assembly line of knee and hip replacements?
Yeah, I get it. We're not going to throw resources at a 90-year-old with end-stage cancer. But I'm a cynic, and so far some greedy, craven, sleazoid always says or does something selfish to justify my cynicism. I fear there are some in the hospital business that could see this as an "opportunity."
One thing in the article did make me smile:
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The staff at Antique Sugar, a vintage clothing boutique in Phoenix, got so much abuse about the mask requirement that the shop erected a signboard outside: “We’ll be happy to debate the efficacy of masks with you when this is all over and you come in to sell your dead grandmother’s clothes.”
I saw that and immediately had a bunch of questions.
- Is this a last-ditch measure for when all other avenues are exhausted, or are we planning to just give up on finding new beds?
- Is this limited to new admissions, or could they wheel a patient out to the parking lot in favor of someone with a better prognosis?
- Could a hospital designate 5 beds for COVID, claim they're "overwhelmed," and have the rest of the facility go back to their lucrative assembly line of knee and hip replacements?
I believe it's triage. Isn't it usually applied at admission?
Triage: The process of sorting people based on their need for immediate medical treatment as compared to their chance of benefiting from such care. Triage is done in emergency rooms, disasters, and wars, when limited medical resources must be allocated to maximize the number of survivors.
A recent case of a quadriplegic with a brain injury who contracted CV in his nursing home may or may not have been triage:
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