Covid virus in phoenix (ending, neighbors, family)

[Mike from back east]

Regarding arguments about population density . . .

Japan has a test positivity rate of 2.14%, South Korea is at 1.34%, Arizona is about 7%, down from 18% a few weeks ago.

Japan and South Korea have some incredibly dense areas, especially Japan.

The difference is the people in Japan and South Korea masked-up early and near universally.

Japan has a population density of 334 people per sq km, versus the USA density of 33 people per sq km and Arizona density of 22 people per sq km. Japan has TEN TIMES the density of the USA and 15 times the density of AZ.

Hong Kong has over 8000 people per sq km but only a fraction of the cases and deaths of AZ. Phoenix has 1253 people per sq km or about 1/7 the density of Hong Kong but infections and deaths in Phoenix are far higher than Hong Kong.

It's the masks.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Regarding arguments about population density . . .

Japan has a test positivity rate of 2.14%, South Korea is at 1.34%, Arizona is about 7%, down from 18% a few weeks ago.

Japan and South Korea have some incredibly dense areas, especially Japan.

The difference is the people in Japan and South Korea masked-up early and near universally.

Japan has a population density of 334 people per sq km, versus the USA density of 33 people per sq km and Arizona density of 22 people per sq km. Japan has TEN TIMES the density of the USA and 15 times the density of AZ.

Hong Kong has over 8000 people per sq km but only a fraction of the cases and deaths of AZ. Phoenix has 1253 people per sq km or about 1/7 the density of Hong Kong but infections and deaths in Phoenix are far higher than Hong Kong.

It's the masks.

The exclusive talk about population density (at the time) was what I posted. When ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL, then more dense areas have a higher amount of transmission. For most people, they understand that (especially quality masks have (100x??) more impact that population density. No one every said you automatically get less COVID in urban areas. Nor did they ever say Phoenix won’t battle COVID. That was the reason for my post. To correct VN’s statement. I was harping that you cannot make a comparison and pointing at a single variable as your proof..

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The entire middle east with a dry climate had/has only a fraction of the rate of covid we had in Arizona. We are just about the worst state in the country. Nevada, drier than here is not nearly as bad. New Mexico too. I'm not buying the dryness angle. The simple reason Arizona got hit so hard is because we largely ignored social distancing and masking and opened up last year on the rising part of the curve when the heat sent everyone indoors. Then our winter tourist season brought round two.

There are many factors to consider, and I'm not doubting that ignoring social distancing & being maskless contributed to the spikes. My point is that the climatic conditions are certainly playing a part. If you look at the CDC map, the darkest shaded areas are mainly in Arizona and southern California. We can't say California was lax because they had some of the strictest lockdowns in the nation. You can find different sources on the studies of low humidity and the effects on the virus, including the one below. Denying this fact is simply denying science.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-humidity.aspx

[belgirl]

Well Michigan has some of the strictest Covid restrictions and they are currently the 2nd worst in the US: https://www.freep.com/story/news/hea...on/6986599002/


When you enforce restrictions that lack common sense or go overboard, the outcome tends to be worse because people will revolt. It's human nature. This is pretty evident in California, where Newsom was just being ridiculous (you need to wear a mask outside when you are jogging by yourself) and people did just the opposite of what he wanted....

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Well Michigan has some of the strictest Covid restrictions and they are currently the 2nd worst in the US: https://www.freep.com/story/news/hea...on/6986599002/


When you enforce restrictions that lack common sense or go overboard, the outcome tends to be worse because people will revolt. It's human nature. This is pretty evident in California, where Newsom was just being ridiculous (you need to wear a mask outside when you are jogging by yourself) and people did just the opposite of what he wanted....

Can you prove your rebellion theory with anything beyond silly anecdotes? The fact is, that has nothing to do with it. MI has loosened restrictions and is seeing an influx of the more contagious UK strain; representing more than half of the new cases there. Also, the largest number of outbreaks there are in K-12 schools. Nice try. Let's drop the correlation equals causation thing. It's not particularly impressive.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by belgirl

When you enforce restrictions that lack common sense or go overboard, the outcome tends to be worse because people will revolt. It's human nature. This is pretty evident in California, where Newsom was just being ridiculous (you need to wear a mask outside when you are jogging by yourself) and people did just the opposite of what he wanted....

Yes, and California's strict mandates certainly didn't cause their numbers to drop. I said early on that most people are not going to stand for those kinds of draconian measures which restrict freedoms & cause more economic hardship than they help curb the spread of a virus. Looking back over the last year, the COVID virus needed to be taken seriously, but not to the point of panic and being afraid of life. The majority of us (myself included) never caught a trace of the virus.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Yes, and California's strict mandates certainly didn't cause their numbers to drop. I said early on that most people are not going to stand for those kinds of draconian measures which restrict freedoms & cause more economic hardship than they help curb the spread of a virus. Looking back over the last year, the COVID virus needed to be taken seriously, but not to the point of panic and being afraid of life. The majority of us (myself included) never caught a trace of the virus.

I too would say that I dodged the virus. But unless you or I had antibody tests along the way, we cannot officially say that we dodged the virus. Though we were probably right, 30% of the people who got COVID were asymptomatic (see https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about...6&publicId=395 ).

My educated guess is the transmission happens much more readily when people let their guard down in the privacy of their own home with much longer interactions. If people see the infections substantially on the rise and they actually know someone who has it, then many apply more personal measures to protect themselves including at home. So if my hypothesis is correct, exterior tougher policy measures like shutting things down don't impact the numbers as much as initially assumed.

Allow me to explain my POV. Take a look at the roller coaster infection rates along the way. Why did all of the states (at different times) have a dramatic rise and drop? I propose is it because many (and certainly not all) people let their guard down at home and later tightened up their personal policy. All along, people are wearing masks. But how diligent are they when they go to a family or friends celebration for many hours? Thanksgiving and Christmas infection rates skyrocketed. During the holidays, people weren't eating at restaurant, bowling, doing to nightclubs etc. They masked up to travel in one of the lowest infection rate vessels (a plane).

Speaking for myself, when the infection rate was up, I would get more religious and not let workers in our home, I would only wear masks even when we were with close friends, etc. Ask any local AZ sit-down restaurant how busy they were inside when the infection rate was down or up. I have asked and their business seems to track people's motivation to hunker down or let loose. It also tracks that takeout and fast food jumps when the infections are up. So people are self-regulating without the government's help.

If you are following, super strict CA measures would work amazingly well if they had monitors inside people's homes. CA probably thought of it. lol Or by putting it another way, protecting yourself in public helps. But if you let your guard down at home or an event for several hours mask-free, I propose that is when the bulk of the transmission happens. Therefore the roller-coaster rise and fall of infections has a lot to do with how much people actually fear (motivated by the numbers and knowing someone). And then they react at home. So telling someone what to didn't work at home.

Anecdotally speaking, our dentist daughter who is staring inside 20 mouths a day knows dozens of dentists who like us, assume they dodged COVID. Most of her friends are all young and nearly all buried in debt. Their 1st motivation to be careful is their wages as they exclusively get about 25% of their daily production. No dentists are using N95's, they use surgical masks. Anyways, a fraction of her friends got it. And for the people that do, our daughter was not surprised because they were not careful outside of work. To me at least, that suggests COVID isn't nearly as easy to transmit as we were initially told. I mean, if you are staring in people's mouths and you dodge it with a surgical mask, that says a lot about how it is transmitted.

A lot of words to say the tight PUBLIC shutdown methods didn't work as well as people assumed. Looking at it the other direction, friends in FL (no mask mandate) tell me a heck of a lot of people in FL wear masks. Smart people self-regulate their risk. With this virus, shutting down too many businesses didn't attach the real area of transmissions. If I was at the helm and in hindsight, I would have a mask mandate and open up more businesses. I think that would strike a nice balance.

Sorry for babbling. I enjoy trying to figure out what the heck is going on. Because this is going to happen again. After all, China reopened its wet markets again.

[Mike from back east]

Babble on, it's very good stuff that you post....

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Regarding arguments about population density . . .

Japan has a test positivity rate of 2.14%, South Korea is at 1.34%, Arizona is about 7%, down from 18% a few weeks ago.

Japan and South Korea have some incredibly dense areas, especially Japan.

The difference is the people in Japan and South Korea masked-up early and near universally.

Japan has a population density of 334 people per sq km, versus the USA density of 33 people per sq km and Arizona density of 22 people per sq km. Japan has TEN TIMES the density of the USA and 15 times the density of AZ.

Hong Kong has over 8000 people per sq km but only a fraction of the cases and deaths of AZ. Phoenix has 1253 people per sq km or about 1/7 the density of Hong Kong but infections and deaths in Phoenix are far higher than Hong Kong.

It's the masks.

Two points to add:

Asian cultures were masking up before masks were cool. It wasn't a new thing for them.

Those populations are also much more healthy, I can imagine there were probably more cases, they were just asymptomatic. They didn't have large government testing centers, they got tested at the doctor if they were sick.

Japan is by far the cleanest country in the world.

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I too would say that I dodged the virus. But unless you or I had antibody tests along the way, we cannot officially say that we dodged the virus. Though we were probably right, 30% of the people who got COVID were asymptomatic (see https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about...6&publicId=395 ).

I would have never got tested for it if people at my office did not test positive. I felt off, but didn't think it would have been COVID.

I thought I spared my wife and 2 young children, but an antibody test shows I did not.

Fry's does the antibody test for $25 at the Pharmacy, it only takes a few minutes. At only $25 it's worth checking.

Arizona's cases are probably much higher than reported, they don't know about the other 3 people in my household who had it.