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According to partisan hack Nate Silver, Obama has a better chance of winning OH than Romney has of winning FL. Romney is ahead in the RCP average in FL by more than Obama is in OH. And undecideds are more likely to vote for challengers than incumbents, which Nate Silver actually admitted though he tried to explain it away. Of course he ignores this in his calculations. And Obama is several points below 50% in OH.
Right. So you have no statistical data to back up anything you're saying? It's just "I can feel it in my bones!" RCP, 538, Huff Post, and TPM all have Obama up, so there's no need to single out Silver. You can't dismiss polls simply because you don't like them.
Right. So you have no statistical data to back up anything you're saying? It's just "I can feel it in my bones!" RCP, 538, Huff Post, and TPM all have Obama up, so there's no need to single out Silver. You can't dismiss polls simply because you don't like them.
RCP doesn't have Obama up.
They did yesterday.
TPM and HuffPost don't either. You even said that.
And, yes, challengers gain a bit more than incumbents when comparing October polling to election results. Even Nate Silver said so.
Yes, 5 out of 37 polls Romney has been either up (+1) or tied with Obama since August. He has trailed in every OH poll since October 12 with the exception of one (tie).
Talk about seeing the glass 30 percent full.
Lol you're hilarious what do polls in August have to do with tea in China.
And what makes you think Silver would not account for this in his model? Or RCP? Or TPM? Or Huff Post?
Because he does not. He uses the polling averages and ignores the undecideds. TPM, Huff Post, and RCP are simply polling averages, they are not projections or models.
This sample voted for Obama over McCain by almost 7 in 2008. Obama won the state by 4.6.
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