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This is correct, and the more the budget is discussed, the more it becomes clear that all this "economy growth"is directed at servicing the external loans (it will be eating up third of the budget approximately.)
So all this "economy growth" in Ukraine that you are trumpeting about, will look great on a paper, but in REAL LIFE it will do little to improve the quality of life for the average Ukrainians ( in fact it might make it even worse,) and this again indicates the potential instability of Ukrainian politics.
But in real life, wages are rising and on dollar terms about 20% a year since 2016. It has a long ways to go but Ze's reforms have barely just begun. Meanwhile the increased trade with Europe is clearly bearing fruit for much of the country's economy. The far east is obviously not...
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
They are talking in terms of salaries, pensions, military budget, spending on healthcare and education.
Yes, pensions have definitely increased in March just like they did in 2018. I think they did not go up in the years prior all the way back to the war days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
Do you even know what the conditions, the "roadmap for the peace on Donbass" (so-called Frank Walter Steinmeier's formula) are?
Yes I do. Yet today, Ukraine said they agreed to this formula and Russia said Ukraine did not agree to this formula. So there MUST be a difference in interpretation. I was asking what yours is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
That was not my question.
My question was - don't you find it a bit strange, demands for commercial contracts with the "aggressor state?"
No, I don't think its strange to demand money from Gazprom to continue to transit their gas to Europe. I think it would be VERY strange not to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
P.S. The big part of people that left Ukraine within the last five years ( about 10 million of them) didn't come as the result of the "annexation of the territories by the aggressor state - i.e. Russia."
Ukraine lost about 10 million people that left in search of jobs, since its own economy got ruined after the coup d'etat.
There are no stats to support 10 million people have left. What we do know is 2 million people went with Crimea. Donbas had 4 million, 2 are remaining, 1.4 went west of the contact line and 600k went to Russia. West of the Dnieper of the country has a stable population since 2014, but the east has fallen dramatically. If you draw a line from Kherson to Izyum on the map, anything along there and to the SE of that line is not getting any better...nobody wants to invest there and the smart people have moved west/north of that region. I've heard 2 million people are working in Europe now, but whether they count as temporary or not I guess we will see, but mostly their families are still in Ukraine.
I didn't say it was the largest exporter in the world in 2016. You guys keep bleating about the past and ignore the recent times. Look up the data for the most recent year. I'm still on the fence whether you are not very bright or deliberately trying to ignore the current data... but I'm trying to give you a chance.
DKM you realistically live in some parallel universe. Do you think that something has changed dramatically since 2016?
In 2016, the US had exports only of soybeans and corn more than all grain exports of Canada,Russia and Ukraine combined. And you want to say that for 3 years, grain exports from Ukraine increased 5 times (5 times it is 500%) and exceeded U.S. exports!?!?
You wanted current numbers? You're welcome:
Ukraine
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Ukraine since the beginning of 2018/2019 MY (July-June) as of February 6 exported 28.52 million tons of grain and legumes, which is 16% more than the same date of the previous marketing year.
But in real life, wages are rising and on dollar terms about 20% a year since 2016. It has a long ways to go but Ze's reforms have barely just begun. Meanwhile the increased trade with Europe is clearly bearing fruit for much of the country's economy. The far east is obviously not...
Yes, pensions have definitely increased in March just like they did in 2018. I think they did not go up in the years prior all the way back to the war days.
As usual, ON PAPER wages are rising, and so are the pensions. ( Rising salaries are first of all an opportunity for the new government to collect more taxes from small-medium business.) The sources I am watching/listening are stating the figures, how much both went up exactly.
However the price of food/energy ( and the rest) went so significantly up since the coup d'etat, that this miserable increase in salaries/pensions is not regarded as anything worthy attention by the public.
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Yes I do. Yet today, Ukraine said they agreed to this formula and Russia said Ukraine did not agree to this formula. So there MUST be a difference in interpretation. I was asking what yours is.
I will get back to the whole Donbass issue in a separate post, since it's too big of a subject.
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No, I don't think its strange to demand money from Gazprom to continue to transit their gas to Europe. I think it would be VERY strange not to.
OK, listen one more time, carefully.
You call someone, some neighboring country an "aggressor" that attacked your country. Literally, with tanks and troops.
Then you turn around and are saying "oh, by the way - how much are you going to pay me for my services ( whatever services they might be,) - let's sit down and talk about it."
Do you understand how absurdly it sounds?
When someone attacks you for real, you refuse to deal with that entity - you are at the stage of war. They need to transit their gas to Europe? None of your business- that's between them and Europeans; after all, this country ATTACKED you, ( or so you claim.)
Instead, you start complaining that you are not getting the "fair deal" from the aggressor, which you are trying to get as a "middle man." It's actually hilarious, and it's not that complicated to understand how this comical situation is coming about.
To put it in a nutshell, this is already what I've said earlier; the US wanted to turn Ukraine into successful anti-Russian project, yet by now, when everyone calculated the price of this project, Americans want to make Russia co-sponsor it, and that's where all these attempts to twist Putin's arm and to force him to keep on shipping gas via Ukraine are coming from. The "independent Ukrainian gas" eats up too much of a budget and makes the internal situation unstable, so Russia ( that used to subsidize the Ukrainian economy for centuries) needs to be back in the picture for that purpose, whether it likes it or not.
Russia of course doesn't like it a bit, (that's why it was pushing through with all kinds of alternative routs to avoid Ukraine,) even if to remind where Ukraine's place is, and has been for centuries.
UNLESS things go how Kremlin sees it fit, and gets something in return - i.e. keeps Ukraine in its economic sphere of influence, which of course is not what America wants.
And this is how that ridiculous situation comes about. ( Just don't try to say that it's "normal," lol.)
Well since tomorrow the negotiations between Russia/EU/Ukraine ( with yet another attempts to stop the alternative pipe routs for Russia in EU) are going to take place, here is a background on Russian-Ukranian "gas wars" that made Europeans sick and tired ( being in the middle of it) by now I imagine.
"A serious dispute began in March 2005 over the price of natural gas supplied and the cost of transit. During this conflict, Russia claimed Ukraine was not paying for gas, but diverting that which was intended to be exported to the EU from the pipelines. Ukrainian officials at first denied the accusation,[2][3] but later Naftogaz admitted that natural gas intended for other European countries was retained and used for domestic needs. The dispute reached a high point on 1 January 2006, when Russia cut off all gas supplies passing through Ukrainian territory.[4] On 4 January 2006, a preliminary agreement between Russia and Ukraine was achieved, and the supply was restored. The situation calmed until October 2007 when new disputes began over Ukrainian gas debts. This led to reduction of gas supplies in March 2008. During the last months of 2008, relations once again became tense when Ukraine and Russia could not agree on the debts owed by Ukraine.[5]"
You go from there...
Oh, and here is the history of gas price that Russia charged Ukraine the last decade or so, depending on the market price and other significant factors ( just to give an idea.) https://www.rt.com/business/165328-russia-turn-off-gas/
( Here is more on more recent gas prices in Ukraine.)
There are no stats to support 10 million people have left. What we do know is 2 million people went with Crimea. Donbas had 4 million, 2 are remaining, 1.4 went west of the contact line and 600k went to Russia. West of the Dnieper of the country has a stable population since 2014, but the east has fallen dramatically. If you draw a line from Kherson to Izyum on the map, anything along there and to the SE of that line is not getting any better...nobody wants to invest there and the smart people have moved west/north of that region. I've heard 2 million people are working in Europe now, but whether they count as temporary or not I guess we will see, but mostly their families are still in Ukraine.
Their new government is already voicing the figure of 30 million - that's how many people are left in post-Maidan Ukraine. There were over 40 million ( 43?) before the coup d'etat.
BTW there are no stats for your tales here either.
As usual.
P.S. Oh, I hear that Russia is poised to announce the agreement on construction of yet another gas pipeline in Europe - on top of "Turkish stream," "Nord Stream 2" here comes the "Balkan stream"
"Russia also said on Friday that a second leg of its TurkStream gas pipeline is planned to go bring supplies to Europe via Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. Worries that these new routes will dry out gas transits via Ukraine and increase the EU’s dependence on Russia for energy supplies have also driven fierce U.S. lobbying against Nord Stream 2."
The investment in trains, port infrastructure and yes even rails are mostly in the private sector now, so they don't count in the budget for infrastructure. This will accelerate as more government assets, including piers, are privatized.
Here is an interesting article on the status of Nordstream 2 pipeline. The plan is to have it operational sometime in 2020, in spite of opposition from the US and a few other countries. It is currently about 75 percent complete. I don't know if they got approval to build through Denmark's territorial waters, if not, it sounds like the route will be diverted to reach the landing at Griefswald, Germany.
Eventually when in service, this pipeline will probably reduce shipments to Europe that transit Ukraine. That will mean lower transit fee revenue to Ukraine.
DKM you realistically live in some parallel universe. Do you think that something has changed dramatically since 2016?
In 2016, the US had exports only of soybeans and corn more than all grain exports of Canada,Russia and Ukraine combined. And you want to say that for 3 years, grain exports from Ukraine increased 5 times (5 times it is 500%) and exceeded U.S. exports!?!?
I guess I should not have given you the benefit of the doubt. Like a good Russian you keep twisting facts to serve your agenda. I'm not going to waste my time arguing with someone over whether we should consider corn and soyabeans grains, when they aren't. Ukraine's grain exports last year (grain like most harvests are counted in fiscal years) were just shy of 50 million tons. You won't find a country which exported more than that, so that means it was the top in the world. Keep smacking yourself in the face and bring up irrelevant counterpoints all you want.
Railroads in the private sector in Ukraine? This is joke of the year
The discussion of rails was in the context of railways to piers (privately built). And cars/wagons are mostly being bought privately, used for transport of agriculture products to the ports. This isn't a joke and the problem is there that there still aren't enough of both, but both are being built. I'm glad I'm catching the attention of the Russian troll brigade...
Here is an interesting article on the status of Nordstream 2 pipeline. The plan is to have it operational sometime in 2020, in spite of opposition from the US and a few other countries. It is currently about 75 percent complete. I don't know if they got approval to build through Denmark's territorial waters, if not, it sounds like the route will be diverted to reach the landing at Griefswald, Germany.
Eventually when in service, this pipeline will probably reduce shipments to Europe that transit Ukraine. That will mean lower transit fee revenue to Ukraine.
No it shouldn't be used to reduce shipments anywhere. The purpose of Nordstream 2 is to increase shipments as Europe is buying more and more gas each year, and even with American LNG increasing its market share, there is still more demand than supply projected in the next decade. Ukraine will sign an agreement with Gazprom soon to contract gas transit so all this claim to the contrary will be pretty meaningless then. They probably won't get a great deal but gas isn't worth as much as it used to be...
As usual, ON PAPER wages are rising, and so are the pensions. ( Rising salaries are first of all an opportunity for the new government to collect more taxes from small-medium business.) The sources I am watching/listening are stating the figures, how much both went up exactly.
However the price of food/energy ( and the rest) went so significantly up since the coup d'etat, that this miserable increase in salaries/pensions is not regarded as anything worthy attention by the public.
You're basically arguing that the double digit increases in real wages isn't worthy of attention by the public. That people getting paid more and being able to buy more things isn't important to them...uh okay?
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
OK, listen one more time, carefully.
You call someone, some neighboring country an "aggressor" that attacked your country. Literally, with tanks and troops.
Then you turn around and are saying "oh, by the way - how much are you going to pay me for my services ( whatever services they might be,) - let's sit down and talk about it."
Do you understand how absurdly it sounds?
When someone attacks you for real, you refuse to deal with that entity - you are at the stage of war. They need to transit their gas to Europe? None of your business- that's between them and Europeans; after all, this country ATTACKED you, ( or so you claim.)
Gazprom did not attack Ukraine. They keep paying their fees to Ukraine in fact so why Ukraine should refuse to collect money from them is something you aren't doing a good job convincing me of. Sure its complicated that Gazprom is Russia's main company for selling gas but this still isn't a good reason not to make money moving their gas to Europe. The complaints are just part of the negotiation for the best deal. I guess it sounds funny to you but not to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
To put it in a nutshell, this is already what I've said earlier; the US wanted to turn Ukraine into successful anti-Russian project, yet by now, when everyone calculated the price of this project, Americans want to make Russia co-sponsor it, and that's where all these attempts to twist Putin's arm and to force him to keep on shipping gas via Ukraine are coming from. The "independent Ukrainian gas" eats up too much of a budget and makes the internal situation unstable, so Russia ( that used to subsidize the Ukrainian economy for centuries) needs to be back in the picture for that purpose, whether it likes it or not.
An interesting, yet unsupported argument. We do have an interest in blocking new pipelines to Europe since its a new export market for our gas. This interest coincides with Ukraine's own interest but these are both $$ interests and not ideological. I guess that's where we differ on the gas situation, I see economic interests at play and you see political.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
Russia of course doesn't like it a bit, (that's why it was pushing through with all kinds of alternative routs to avoid Ukraine,) even if to remind where Ukraine's place is, and has been for centuries.
UNLESS things go how Kremlin sees it fit, and gets something in return - i.e. keeps Ukraine in its economic sphere of influence, which of course is not what America wants.
I believe you are sincere here. But it bears repeating that most Ukrainians don't want to be in a Russian style economic corruption based system anymore. They are still fighting off the vestiges of Moscow style rule. I'm sorry that this isn't something you are ready to recognize. You are seeing that America wants to break Ukraine away, when the truth is actually America doesn't want to see Russia using force to keep Ukraine from becoming more European.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
( Here is more on more recent gas prices in Ukraine.)
[/url]https://www.rt.com/business/165328-russia-turn-off-gas/[/url]
BTW there are no stats for your tales here either.
You are using misleading Russian propaganda again. That first link makes it appear that Russia dropped the price down to 268 for the year ending in 2014 but this isn't the price they paid. Remove that fake data point and you see the actual "cheap" Russian gas coming in in the $400s for the last few years.
And then you/RT take the highest monthly price in 2018, which is always in November, and claim this is $339 is a record high price. They paid a little less than $300 for the year of 2018. Put that against your graph on the other link and its quite low compared to the 2011-2014 period... the great Yanukovych years. You don't see the irony of Putin offering gas at $385 if Ukraine would turn to Russia but then his propaganda claiming their independence is robbing them with gas prices which were $339 at the highest point? And now this summer they pay less than $200 so how is that so bad compared to what Russia was charging?
So there you have it. All this crazy talk about gas when its so cheap now that it hardly costs the entire nation under $40 per person to pay for all the imports they need per year.
I have more material for you, because they are talking about splitting up Naftogaz along the lines of the Worldbank recommendations.
You're basically arguing that the double digit increases in real wages isn't worthy of attention by the public. That people getting paid more and being able to buy more things isn't important to them...uh okay?
No dearest DKM, it means that this raise is so insignificant comparably to their needs/their poverty by now, that it goes unnoticed. Another thing ( to address your lines on the "cheap price during summer time" in Ukraine.
Number one, a lot of Ukrainians are still behind on their winter bills, and they are struggling to pay at least part of them in summer time ON TOP of those "40 dollars per person" that you are talking about ( in fact the public debt on energy bills is so high, that it's a big headache for the government - I don't have figures handy now, but they were published.)
Plus keep in mind that REAL salaries in Ukraine are nowhere what the "official statics" present, so even "$40 per person in summer time" is too much to pay.
Quote:
Gazprom did not attack Ukraine.They keep paying their fees to Ukraine in fact so why Ukraine should refuse to collect money from them is something you aren't doing a good job convincing me of. Sure its complicated that Gazprom is Russia's main company for selling gas but this still isn't a good reason not to make money moving their gas to Europe. The complaints are just part of the negotiation for the best deal. I guess it sounds funny to you but not to me.
And Gazprom is what? It's not Russia and it's not part of the "aggressor state"? It's some other distant country?
Are you in you sound mind DKM?
OK, forgive me if in my next upcoming posts I'll simply proceed with the comments on the developing situation.
P.S. Meanwhile - feel free to find your own statistic charts on gas price in Ukraine to present here, and don't forget to correspond it to political events in Ukraine.
Just for a change, instead of just sitting and talking here)))
Last edited by erasure; 09-19-2019 at 01:16 PM..
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