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Old 01-06-2020, 11:21 AM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,853,283 times
Reputation: 6690

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Interesting way for you to admit I am, once again, correct.
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Old 01-06-2020, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 624,065 times
Reputation: 688
I don't really care.
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Old 01-07-2020, 01:30 PM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
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And here comes explanation for fake growth of GDP in Ukraine - currency speculations.

"The strengthened gryvna reduced inflation in the country, but created a large shortage of funds in the state budget. The strengthening of the Ukrainian national currency in 2019 became a problem for the country's finances. This was recognized by world agencies. At the beginning of 2020, in Ukraine, the dollar began to cheapen again, although it was strengthening before the holidays. In Ukraine, a pyramid of domestic government bonds has been formed, experts say. Non-residents converted about 4 billion dollars into gryvnas and bought government bonds at an average of 15 percent. Manipulations with government bonds are beneficial to many players, but not for the country itself, since the consequences after lenders begin to take profits are unpredictable."


"Amid declining industrial growth, the sale of domestic government bonds creates, among other things, fictitious GDP growth."


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1_Y9mli9p0
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Old 01-07-2020, 02:17 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,853,283 times
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Sad how you spin this. Real gdp growth is 4% (nothing to do with bonds) and in dollars it's much more (because of many things including bonds) . But nobody is looking at the dollar growth because it's misleading due to currency fluctuations. Russians right here in this forum used dollar gdp to show how much Ukraines economy fell 6 years ago but now they want to ignore it. It is actually very hard to measure gdp in dollars when a currency changes so much year to year. PPP is a cleaner way to do it. What you can do with dollars is count how much wages are in dollars and that has been growing in Ukraine, nearly 500 a month now and over 700 in kyiv.

Russians can't stand this so they obfuscate the figures as much as they can.

The challenge will be to keep the currency from continuing to strengthen. Rates should be gradually reduced. Debt to gdp ratio is now below 2014 levels, so they can borrow to cover currency created deficits.
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Old 01-07-2020, 07:51 PM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
Reputation: 10037
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Sad how you spin this. Real gdp growth is 4% (nothing to do with bonds) and in dollars it's much more (because of many things including bonds) . But nobody is looking at the dollar growth because it's misleading due to currency fluctuations. Russians right here in this forum used dollar gdp to show how much Ukraines economy fell 6 years ago but now they want to ignore it. It is actually very hard to measure gdp in dollars when a currency changes so much year to year. PPP is a cleaner way to do it. What you can do with dollars is count how much wages are in dollars and that has been growing in Ukraine, nearly 500 a month now and over 700 in kyiv.

Russians can't stand this so they obfuscate the figures as much as they can.

The challenge will be to keep the currency from continuing to strengthen. Rates should be gradually reduced. Debt to gdp ratio is now below 2014 levels, so they can borrow to cover currency created deficits.

Sure, spin it as you wish, but I am just translating here what Ukrainians are saying.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 624,065 times
Reputation: 688
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
And here comes explanation for fake growth of GDP in Ukraine - currency speculations.

"The strengthened gryvna reduced inflation in the country, but created a large shortage of funds in the state budget. The strengthening of the Ukrainian national currency in 2019 became a problem for the country's finances. This was recognized by world agencies. At the beginning of 2020, in Ukraine, the dollar began to cheapen again, although it was strengthening before the holidays. In Ukraine, a pyramid of domestic government bonds has been formed, experts say. Non-residents converted about 4 billion dollars into gryvnas and bought government bonds at an average of 15 percent. Manipulations with government bonds are beneficial to many players, but not for the country itself, since the consequences after lenders begin to take profits are unpredictable."


"Amid declining industrial growth, the sale of domestic government bonds creates, among other things, fictitious GDP growth."
In Russia, there was something similar when the government arranged a financial pyramid from GKO (Government short-term bonds). Naturally, this all eventually collapsed and there was a default in 1998.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:39 PM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimogor View Post
In Russia, there was something similar when the government arranged a financial pyramid from GKO (Government short-term bonds). Naturally, this all eventually collapsed and there was a default in 1998.

Yes, I remember.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:47 PM
 
Location: Russia
1,348 posts, read 624,065 times
Reputation: 688
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Sad how you spin this. Real gdp growth is 4% (nothing to do with bonds) and in dollars it's much more (because of many things including bonds) . But nobody is looking at the dollar growth because it's misleading due to currency fluctuations. Russians right here in this forum used dollar gdp to show how much Ukraines economy fell 6 years ago but now they want to ignore it. It is actually very hard to measure gdp in dollars when a currency changes so much year to year. PPP is a cleaner way to do it. What you can do with dollars is count how much wages are in dollars and that has been growing in Ukraine, nearly 500 a month now and over 700 in kyiv.

Russians can't stand this so they obfuscate the figures as much as they can.

The challenge will be to keep the currency from continuing to strengthen. Rates should be gradually reduced. Debt to gdp ratio is now below 2014 levels, so they can borrow to cover currency created deficits.
Yes, the numbers are about the same, but it is wrong to measure the standard of living only by income. But what about the expenses? Need to look at "income minus expenses".
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:37 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,853,283 times
Reputation: 6690
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimogor View Post
Yes, the numbers are about the same, but it is wrong to measure the standard of living only by income. But what about the expenses? Need to look at "income minus expenses".
PPP sort of accomplishes that, but the real indicator you are looking for is called "real wage growth". That's up 10% in Ukraine for the year. Nominal wage growth averaged 19% which doesn't account for the 9% inflation for the period.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:51 PM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
Reputation: 10037
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
PPP sort of accomplishes that, but the real indicator you are looking for is called "real wage growth". That's up 10% in Ukraine for the year. Nominal wage growth averaged 19% which doesn't account for the 9% inflation for the period.

How about "REAL prices growth" along with that "real wage growth?"
And how about that "new labor laws" that allow now throw people out on the streets whenever the employer desires?

That's today's right-wing "democratic agenda" in Ukraine.
Everything they were pointing their finger at while looking at Russia and rejecting its "corporate essence" is paving its way to Ukraine, and then some more.

And all this sh*t is creeping over there, in that part of the world, from one and the same source, as far as I can see...
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