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I've been trying to think through the different scenarios that could happen in Ukraine in the future. There's only 6 directions it can go.
1. Peace with Russia and a rejoining with Russia and the CIS.
2. Neutrality. Ukraine stands alone joining neither the EU, NATO or the Russian CIS.
3. Ukraine goes to the EU and NATO.
4. Ukraine stays in it's current state of limbo/chaos.
5. Ukraine descends into civil war and disintegrates as a nation.
6. Ukraine and other nations such as Poland, the Baltic States and Belarus create another bloc/union.
I'm going to rate these scenarios on a scale of 1 to 10 with my opinion of how likely it may be.
#1. Reconciliation with Russia and joining with Russia. I don't think Russia wants to take in Ukraine as it is, it's too much of a burden and Russia has it's own fish to fry. I don't think Russia would get involved in anything less than civil war and then reluctantly and most likely indirectly. The chaotic situation in any scenario would make any sane nation think twice. I'll give it a 3 of 10.
I see #2, neutrality as a possibility and the best solution but considering intereference from certain entities such as Poland and the US not very likely. I'll give it a 3 of 10.
3. Ukraine joins EU and NATO. Macron and other powerful EU leaders have made it quite clear they do not want Ukraine in the club as it is and even if it gets itself together it would be problematic and options for Ukraine would not be the best. NATO? One comes with the other. I give this a 4.
4. Stays the same for the forseeable future? It creates all kinds of options for everybody else. Poland/EU gets slave labor, a weak and chaotic Ukraine is no threat to Russia, everybodies happy. I'll give this a 7.
5. Widespread civil war? For this to happen you need a willing motivated populace who need/want it. Today it seems Ukrainians are managing and not caring enough to take a side. They've divorced themselves from their politcal system in so many ways that Ukrainian government has little relevance in their lives. Moving forward though and enough interested parties outside the country are willing to toss it their lot it's possible. Ukraine would disintegrate as a nation splitting into east and west. A 6 for this one.
6. A union with Ukraines neighboring countries? Poland has great ambitions. They are meddling in Ukraine and Belarus, they hold great influence in the Baltic States but most of them are EU and NATO members. I'll give this a 2. Not likely.
I've been trying to think through the different scenarios that could happen in Ukraine in the future. There's only 6 directions it can go.
1. Peace with Russia and a rejoining with Russia and the CIS.
2. Neutrality. Ukraine stands alone joining neither the EU, NATO or the Russian CIS.
3. Ukraine goes to the EU and NATO.
4. Ukraine stays in it's current state of limbo/chaos.
5. Ukraine descends into civil war and disintegrates as a nation.
6. Ukraine and other nations such as Poland, the Baltic States and Belarus create another bloc/union.
I'm going to rate these scenarios on a scale of 1 to 10 with my opinion of how likely it may be.
#1. Reconciliation with Russia and joining with Russia. I don't think Russia wants to take in Ukraine as it is, it's too much of a burden and Russia has it's own fish to fry. I don't think Russia would get involved in anything less than civil war and then reluctantly and most likely indirectly. The chaotic situation in any scenario would make any sane nation think twice. I'll give it a 3 of 10.
I see #2, neutrality as a possibility and the best solution but considering intereference from certain entities such as Poland and the US not very likely. I'll give it a 3 of 10.
3. Ukraine joins EU and NATO. Macron and other powerful EU leaders have made it quite clear they do not want Ukraine in the club as it is and even if it gets itself together it would be problematic and options for Ukraine would not be the best. NATO? One comes with the other. I give this a 4.
4. Stays the same for the forseeable future? It creates all kinds of options for everybody else. Poland/EU gets slave labor, a weak and chaotic Ukraine is no threat to Russia, everybodies happy. I'll give this a 7.
5. Widespread civil war? For this to happen you need a willing motivated populace who need/want it. Today it seems Ukrainians are managing and not caring enough to take a side. They've divorced themselves from their politcal system in so many ways that Ukrainian government has little relevance in their lives. Moving forward though and enough interested parties outside the country are willing to toss it their lot it's possible. Ukraine would disintegrate as a nation splitting into east and west. A 6 for this one.
6. A union with Ukraines neighboring countries? Poland has great ambitions. They are meddling in Ukraine and Belarus, they hold great influence in the Baltic States but most of them are EU and NATO members. I'll give this a 2. Not likely.
Your thoughts?
Patience Scrat, patience - we have only 2 days left before the Paris meeting and then we'll see.
One thing is clear however by now; people that were VOTED out of power ( i.e. people surrounding Poroshenko, that over 70% of Ukrainians didn't want to see in charge of the country any longer,) made it back to power positions, now BEING APPOINTED in many key positions. ( In fact many of them became part of the "Servant of the people" party.)
Once Zelensky agreed to cooperate with IMF and refused to prosecute Poroshenko, there was no turning back.
So a bit more patience, coz who knows now - things might take unexpected turn.
And they are saying that Trump is planning the counter-attack.
Giuliani moved from meeting with M.P. Dubinsky in Kiev to meeting with M.P. Andrey Derkach ( the very one who had the press-conference, willing to pass the incriminating papers to American Judicial system.. ( check)
"Ambassador Mari Jovanovich lied while under oath" - check.
Next, Giuliani is planning to meet with former Prosecutor General Victor Shokin (check.) And then - with former Prosecutor General Lutsenko ( I hope this time around the communication will go via the interpreter - this will be far more productive.)
In other news - I am learning with a big interest from Russian media that "Putin is ready to protect Europe from the US" ( and all 5,000 or so companies with German capital involved that operate in Russia.)
Here they are, the reps of German business mingling with Russians in Sochi, and Putin breaks into fluent German, when the official interpreting system fails so he reminds me of some scene from the "Doctor Evil" )
( OOOOhhh they hope that after that Paris meeting regarding the fate of Donbass, European economic sanctions will be lifted off of Russia)))
IF Zelensky fails to adhere to Minsk agreement that is...
And I don't see him doing that ( adhering to that particular agreement, since Poroshenko and our *Nazi friends* are already preparing the putsch back home...apparently...
The IMF agreed to a 5.5 billion dollar loan for Ukraine?
Oh, that's where DKM might be now, working on the fine details)))
"I was pleased to note that IMF staff has reached agreement with the authorities on the policies to underpin a new 3-year, SDR 4 billion (about US$ 5.5 billion) arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. This agreement is subject to IMF management approval and to approval by the Executive Board, and effectiveness of the arrangement will be conditional on the implementation of a set of prior actions."
P.S. But seriously, when I listen to Dubinsky, ( and other Ukrainian economists,) the situation is getting only worse and worse with these loans for Ukraine.
I think DKMs contract at the troll factory has expired.
What, you crave his blood now? (Once his contract is over?)
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