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Oh... gas/gas price in Ukraine...
Yeah, I didn't get to the latest news on that front, so here it comes;
Things are happening pretty fast, so there are no definite answers (yet) and more details are needed, BUT this is the bottom line:
Apparently the Western economists ( American economists first of all I'd think) figured out that all this coming "Ukrainian economic boom," - no, forget about "boom" because all this "boom" money will go to cover the gas bills that the West will be forced to pay to keep Ukrainian economy afloat, ( and Ukrainians alive.) So here goes the "boom" money. With other words - Ukraine is simply unsustainable without gas coming directly from Russia. And Russia ( knowing that it's a case) was planning to cease the supply, planning to trade directly with Germany as soon as the NordStream 2 was built. ( To which the EU court gave the green light back in 2016.)
So NOW when the project was about to be accomplished ( 80% done,) and everyone realized what's about to happen, Americans sent the Poles to the EU court again, and now the US got what it wanted;
"The available onshore capacity has allowed Russia to go ahead with building a new pipeline, Nord Stream 2, parallel to Nord Stream 1. That project is opposed by the U.S. It argues that Nord Stream 2 would make Germany too dependent on Russia for energy supplies and would allow Gazprom’s exports to Europe to bypass Ukraine’s Soviet-era pipeline system, depriving that country of about $3 billion in transit fees just as Ukraine receives major Western financial assistance. Germany has ignored the criticism: It needs all the gas it can get to enable its simultaneous transitions from coal and nuclear power generation.
...The Polish state company’s goals are twofold. Politically, the strongly anti-Russia Polish government is aligned with the U.S. It’s trying to drive Poland’s imports of Russian gas down to zero. But PGNiG is also vying for higher transit fees from Gazprom than the paltry $5.3 million a year it currently is receiving. It is, therefore, strategically interested in preserving the Ukrainian transit option. That’s why PGNiG challenged the 2016 commission decision in the General Court."
This is the first part, but hold on, here comes the second, even juicer part from Ukraine, that supposedly "got rid of the dependency on Russian gas" - ( Helloooo there DKM)))) )
"The talks will take place in Brussels on Sept. 19, and before the OPAL decision, Russia wanted a short placeholder contract with low guaranteed deliveries, while Ukraine insists on a new 10-year deal with supplies of 60 billion cubic meters guaranteed."
Yeah, that's what Ukraine wants from the *aggressor country.* The supply contract.
You can read the rest here,
meanwhile, when Poland ( being the US obedient servant as it is,) fulfilled the orders of its master, the Germans can't get what they paid for ( no, not only Germans - it was basically a big international project, so other companies - the Austrian, the British, the Dutch and whoever else ( I need to look it up) are losing their investments to the tune of 1 billion euros? ( I need to look it up.)
I am getting my popcorn)))
It doesn't matter if YOU think Russia isn't to blame for the economic crisis of 2014-15. Ukrainians know who it was and you can't change their minds.
All that ranting and no acknowledgment that Ukraine pays far less for gas now (from elsewhere) than it did anytime in the past 14 years (from Russia). Even if they strike a deal with Gazprom, imports are down so its not like the good old days are coming back for Russian exports.
I don't know how you reconcile that the economy is growing and Ukraine is paying the least amount for gas imports since the early 2000's... and somehow that's bad? Um yeah, okay its bad for Russia but who else? Ukraine now produces 70% of its own gas usage, so imports aren't really as important as you'd like them to be.
Yep, we definitely got involved in the pipeline matter and this is also self serving since the USA is heading to be the largest LNG exporter in the world shortly. And now Ukraine has good leverage in the matter so I expect them to get a good deal from Gazprom. Or not, Poland's new gas terminal will quadruple LNG imports soon enough.
And I suggest better reading comprehension. They aren't asking for a supply contract of 60 bcm a year. That's the transit contract which they get paid to push to Europe. maybe that's why you're ranting about Ukrainian gas imports? Its less than 2 billion dollars worth of imports a year., less even then what Russia pays Ukraine for transit fees. This is very small for an economy growing by 12 billion a year.
Last edited by DKM; 09-14-2019 at 04:14 PM..
Reason: typo
No way in hell would I give Ukraine a 10 year contract. 3 maybe 4 years max. Market prices can change, who knows what is going to go on in the next decade either. They have a gun pointed at Russia ffs, why deal with them at all? They aren't good neighbors and they kill their own people.
Kiev is emboldened by the recent US actions.
(As you may guess by now, Washington stands behind it all, turning Ukraine into anti-Russian project AND manipulating energy policies in Europe.
And this includes concern for Russian plans to deal directly with Germany of course ( when it comes to the energy supply.)
At that, I don't believe that selling American liguified gas ( which is more expensive of course for Europeans) is the ultimate goal of it. Forcing Russia to resume the supply of gas via Ukraine has double goals in mind; to make Russians to invest money in Ukrainian economy during the "transitional period" ( i.e to assure American success while working on anti-Russian project,) and second - it's obvious that all these schemes with buying the "reverse Russian gas" from elsewhere ( be that Czechia or Slovakia) is never a good idea; more expensive for the end consumer, plus the quantities are not sufficient.
However ( however as I've already mentioned) these US attempts to use Poland ( Ukraine and other former East European Block states) against direct German economic interests, harbor other dangers of course...
"The brandishing of sanctions, however, has contributed along with other Trump policies to declining German public trust in the trans-Atlantic relationship—a recent survey showed that only 19 percent of Germans considered the United States a trustworthy partner, a decline of 5 points in the past six months that placed the United States well behind Russia in German opinion. Low levels of trust contribute to declining U.S. influence over German policies."
So something to consider along the way of course, plus the direct hit that European companies will have to accept as I've mentioned earlier -
"Would it be worth it? New U.S. sanctions might delay Nord Stream 2 and buy time that strengthens Ukraine’s bargaining position. But they would also cause collateral damage in the U.S.-German relationship. If pipe-laying firms withdraw from the project, it would leave the five major European energy companies (from Germany, France, Austria, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands), which are providing 50 percent of the financing for the project, with sunk costs of close to 1 billion euros each in the project. The German government would find it hard to accept U.S. sanctions without reaction."
But so far, *per Poland's request,* the EU court overturned the EC decision from 2016, so Washington is trying to twist Moscow's arm with that veto on Opal passage of the pipe (forbidding Gazprom to use its full capacity) and thus forcing it to resume gas transit via Ukraine.
So far Moscow remains silent.
The situation will be more clear hopefully on the 19th of this month, when the negotiations will take place.
It doesn't matter if YOU think Russia isn't to blame for the economic crisis of 2014-15. Ukrainians know who it was and you can't change their minds.
You mean *your friends*?
And why should I care?
Quote:
All that ranting and no acknowledgment that Ukraine pays far less for gas now (from elsewhere) than it did anytime in the past 14 years (from Russia).
Last 14 years?
Oh DKM you are full of it, prove it)))
( Let me help you a bit here; the only time Gazprom significantly hiked the price for Ukraine before the 2014, was because that stupid cow Timoshenko ( who was the head of the state back then I suppose) negotiated a VERY unfavorable contract for Ukraine.
Why did she do it and how much she personally made on it - that I don't know ( she went to jail because of that contract after all.)
But that's beyond the point.
Please do show the gas price for the last 14 years in Ukraine for comparison, and then we'll talk.
Quote:
Even if they strike a deal with Gazprom, imports are down so its not like the good old days are coming back for Russian exports.
Just in case if you didn't notice, Russians are not interested in any exports to Ukraine ( in fact that was the whole idea behind the Nord Stream 2 - avoiding dealing with Ukraine all together, so what's you point?
Quote:
I don't know how you reconcile that the economy is growing and Ukraine is paying the least amount for gas imports since the early 2000's... and somehow that's bad? Um yeah, okay its bad for Russia but who else? Ukraine now produces 70% of its own gas usage, so imports aren't really as important as you'd like them to be.
As I've said - gas price in Ukraine for the last 14 years please. ( Yeah, going back all the way to the "early 200oies")))
Quote:
Yep, we definitely got involved in the pipeline matter and this is also self serving since the USA is heading to be the largest LNG exporter in the world shortly. And now Ukraine has good leverage in the matter so I expect them to get a good deal from Gazprom. Or not, Poland's new gas terminal will quadruple LNG imports soon enough.
Good luck with all that, meanwhile - why twist Russia's arm, demanding the supply from the "aggressor state"?
Quote:
And I suggest better reading comprehension. They aren't asking for a supply contract of 60 bcm a year. That's the transit contract which they get paid to push to Europe. maybe that's why you're ranting about Ukrainian gas imports? Its less than 2 billion dollars worth of imports a year., less even then what Russia pays Ukraine for transit fees. This is very small for an economy growing by 12 billion a year.
Yep, we definitely got involved in the pipeline matter and this is also self serving since the USA is heading to be the largest LNG exporter in the world shortly. And now Ukraine has good leverage in the matter so I expect them to get a good deal from Gazprom. Or not, Poland's new gas terminal will quadruple LNG imports soon enough.
Ha-ha-ha... America will soon become a largest LNG exporter, but at the same time buys LNG from Russia for its own needs. Very funny, isn't it?
What I have a suspicion that America will partially buy LNG in Russia and send it to Poland as both own, and still make money on it.
You're assuming by means of nationwide polls, that I'm friends with all 40 million people there. Thanks I guess.
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Originally Posted by erasure
Please do show the gas price for the last 14 years in Ukraine for comparison, and then we'll talk.
Look it up yourself if you want to disagree with the truth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
Just in case if you didn't notice, Russians are not interested in any exports to Ukraine ( in fact that was the whole idea behind the Nord Stream 2 - avoiding dealing with Ukraine all together, so what's you point?
Yet the only people in the world pushing Ukraine to demand the government subsidize gas and buy it from Russia are Russians. But okay, that is a clever way to disguise disinterest! And nord stream 2 has zero to do with Ukraine imports.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure
Good luck with all that, meanwhile - why twist Russia's arm, demanding the supply from the "aggressor state"?
Let's wait and see what this is REALLY all about.
You are, once again, mixing together 2 separate issues of Ukraine charging Russia for transit of gas to Europe and Ukraine buying Russian gas for itself. This fits a pattern of ignorance to not acknowledge reality. Ukraine will do what it can to keep getting paid to transit Russian gas while still not buying any gas for itself from Russia. Where it buys gas doesn't really affect things (unless you believe Russian gas is cheaper), but getting 3 billion a year in gas transit fees IS a big deal, obviously. You may be disappointed to learn the negotiations next week are about transit and not gas imports at all.
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