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I don't usually feel like its my job to educate the uneducated, but since you are making such claims, consider that wheat is only 1 type of grain. While not surprising that a Russian would confuse wheat exports (where Russia is #1) with overall grain exports (where Ukraine is #1), it is your decision to share your ignorance for all to see.
Don't forget about that union that Russia already made with China (it's in the making with Iran.)
The more the US is trying to pound Russia from the West, the more danger is coming from the East.
Ukraine meanwhile is still trying to regain its economic level of pre-2014, 4% growth of economy or not.
Moscow is well aware of that.
Moscow is also well aware that Ukraine will get back to its pre 2014 economy before Russia does. Ouch! At the current growth rates, that will be the end of next year. Not counting Russian occupied Donbas which is now the poorest region in Europe. It does depend on how you measure it though and I expect Russia to continue to focus on misleading metrics.
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Originally Posted by erasure
When the corporations will take over their land, where will Ukrainian population go?
They are already aware that they've lost over 10 million people within the last 5 years.
This "agrarian project" of IMF is not promising in terms of retaining people in the country, as much as Ukrainians are hoping for it.
Yeah you tend to lose people when territories are forcibly conquered by an invader. I see now that Ukraine is competing with Russia for grain exports, Russian media are pumping out resistance to Ukraine's land reform. It seems everything that could help Ukraine is met with resistance from Russian propaganda. With friends like that...
Grain exports CONTRACTS are up. Let's see if those ocntracts are filled.
It means nothing when the harvest rots in the fields.
The FAS/USDA measures actual exports, not contracts. The export numbers are out for all to see.
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Originally Posted by Scrat335
The ukrainian railroad is decrepit, 70% of rolling stock is 20 years old or more. Locomotives are in short supply and mostly rolling junk, I've seen them. Poorly maintained and barely working. Railroad systems in disrepair, derailments are all too common. What does work have very low capacity. If you want to run real heavy rolling stock you need better than what Ukraine has now. Care to go into the secondary system? How about the road system out in the farm country? How are they going to move all this grain to the ports to ship it overseas?
Ukraine has booked an order with GE for 225 locomotives to be jointly made in Erie and Ukraine, with some 30 already delivered. This also includes a 10 year agreement for overhaul of locomotives. As for wagons, companies are investing in more. There are 3 factories in Ukraine with lots of orders for rail cars. Maybe there is a job for you there... people have moved from Luhansk to build rail cars in these factories. Even Belarus opted to buy 500 freight cars from one of those factories this summer. Somehow the grain is making it to port, or exports would not have hit a record.
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Originally Posted by Scrat335
Oh, and lets not forget the ports. Decrepit, some falling apart and even if they had good reliable equipment they can't move the volumns they need to fast enough.
Nikolaev port has increased traffic volumes by another 24% this year so far, and that's after it increased 24% in 2018. Exports accounted for 80% of that volume. Western companies are helping upgrade Ukraine's ports.
Moscow is also well aware that Ukraine will get back to its pre 2014 economy before Russia does. Ouch! At the current growth rates, that will be the end of next year.
The current budget for 2020 is discussed this week in Rada, and IMF delegation arrived in Ukraine ( to overview it?)
What it looks like, although the budget revenue growth is projected this year at 5% (50 billion grivnas or $2,017,267,800.00 ( just to give a general idea, instead of your usual empty talk,) most of it will be eaten up by the increased military budget yet again.
And again - practically no allocations for social programs or programs of economic support, ( which is a direct threat for Zelensky's support, since he has been voted in in hopes of alleviation of the suffering of general population.)
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Not counting Russian occupied Donbas which is now the poorest region in Europe. It does depend on how you measure it though and I expect Russia to continue to focus on misleading metrics.
Donbass is under the escalated military attacks from Ukrainian Army ( so it's still a war zone, where it's impossible to talk seriously about any "economy.")
And interestingly enough, the Minsk 2 solution, that Frank-Walter Steinmeir
prescribed in German pedantic manner (probably keeping usual Russian sloppiness in mind) , a formula to which now Russians are simply pointing at, seems to be the point of major head ache and irritation for Washington. Up to the point that Kurt Walker yet again rushed to the rescue, saying basically that it's an "incorrect formula" and it needs to be changed or something like that. ( Sorry I am in a rush now to be more detailed.)
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Yeah you tend to lose people when territories are forcibly conquered by an invader. I see now that Ukraine is competing with Russia for grain exports, Russian media are pumping out resistance to Ukraine's land reform. It seems everything that could help Ukraine is met with resistance from Russian propaganda. With friends like that...
So one more time, remind me, please, why Ukraine is planning to demand a 10-year gas contract with the "invader" in couple of days?
The current budget for 2020 is discussed this week in Rada, and IMF delegation arrived in Ukraine ( to overview it?)
What it looks like, although the budget revenue growth is projected this year at 5% (50 billion grivnas or $2,017,267,800.00 ( just to give a general idea, instead of your usual empty talk,) most of it will be eaten up by the increased military budget yet again.
And again - practically no allocations for social programs or programs of economic support, ( which is a direct threat for Zelensky's support, since he has been voted in in hopes of alleviation of the suffering of general population.)
Yes the IMF is there to review the budget. That's what they do, condition loans on budget (since they are helping fund the budget). You are claiming spending is not increasing for social programs? They report spending per agency, so which agencies are you claiming "practically no allocations"? Social welfare, pensions, or ??
prescribed in German pedantic manner (probably keeping usual Russian sloppiness in mind) , a formula to which now Russians are simply pointing at, seems to be the point of major head ache and irritation for Washington. Up to the point that Kurt Walker yet again rushed to the rescue, saying basically that it's an "incorrect formula" and it needs to be changed or something like that. ( Sorry I am in a rush now to be more detailed.)
Walker is simply saying election can't happen until after the territory is freed from armed occupation. The election in Donbas is part of the formula, but it doesn't state whether or not the elections occur during the occupation. No offense (haha) but Russia doesn't have a reputation for upholding free elections. Its all in the timing.
The crucial part is what happens first and how to guarantee its implemented at all? You know the terms it sounds like... how do you propose its done, all at once or ??
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Originally Posted by erasure
So one more time, remind me, please, why Ukraine is planning to demand a 10-year gas contract with the "invader" in couple of days?
Piped gas is typically sold via long term contracts for a lot of reasons, the main one being it doesn't have a spot price and its sold directly to buyers instead of on an open market. So while arranging contracts for TRANSIT to customers, Gazprom typically enters into contracts for a number of years, although 10 seems long. Demanding 10 years is probably just a starting position. This is a commercial negotiation...
The FAS/USDA measures actual exports, not contracts. The export numbers are out for all to see.
Ukraine has booked an order with GE for 225 locomotives to be jointly made in Erie and Ukraine, with some 30 already delivered. This also includes a 10 year agreement for overhaul of locomotives. As for wagons, companies are investing in more. There are 3 factories in Ukraine with lots of orders for rail cars. Maybe there is a job for you there... people have moved from Luhansk to build rail cars in these factories. Even Belarus opted to buy 500 freight cars from one of those factories this summer. Somehow the grain is making it to port, or exports would not have hit a record.
Nikolaev port has increased traffic volumes by another 24% this year so far, and that's after it increased 24% in 2018. Exports accounted for 80% of that volume. Western companies are helping upgrade Ukraine's ports.
FFS, Ukraine is onlly spending 60 billion on its infrastructure between now and 2030 DKM. They need to spend 20 times that just to make up for the last 20 years of neglect. New rolling stock and locomotives? It doesn't mean a thing when the track beds and rails those trains run on are worthless. A house without a foundation is worthless. New equipment at the ports? What about what it's built on? The pier? Sure small ships can dock but what about bigger cargo carriers, bulk carriers? If the piers aren't strong enough you'll have problems.
Ukraines infrastructure is a write off. They need to start from the ground up, literally. They'll never compete in the global market otherwise.
I don't usually feel like its my job to educate the uneducated, but since you are making such claims, consider that wheat is only 1 type of grain. While not surprising that a Russian would confuse wheat exports (where Russia is #1) with overall grain exports (where Ukraine is #1), it is your decision to share your ignorance for all to see.
Before you accuse someone of ignorance, you must first learn to answer for your words.
So all your words turned out to be empty chatter again. I understand your desire to present Ukraine as "the most-most in the world" and to beat damned Rashka. But all this is only in your dream, and the reality is ruthless. And you're the one who looks ignorant and ridiculous.
Yes the IMF is there to review the budget. That's what they do, condition loans on budget (since they are helping fund the budget).
This is correct, and the more the budget is discussed, the more it becomes clear that all this "economy growth"is directed at servicing the external loans (it will be eating up third of the budget approximately.)
So all this "economy growth" in Ukraine that you are trumpeting about, will look great on a paper, but in REAL LIFE it will do little to improve the quality of life for the average Ukrainians ( in fact it might make it even worse,) and this again indicates the potential instability of Ukrainian politics.
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You are claiming spending is not increasing for social programs? They report spending per agency, so which agencies are you claiming "practically no allocations"? Social welfare, pensions, or ??
It's not me who is "claiming" anything.
The great thing ( what I love about today's Ukraine actually,) is that the South-East has a great deal of educated specialists, independently - minded people, who now have access to the statistics and they discuss in the most professional manner what this or that thing actually mean ON PRACTICE for the public. ( All while Ze's team is getting increasingly preoccupied with its own promotion, "branding" and the rest of clap-trap. The "propaganda" part of the state budget is definitely growing.)
This ability to educate public in practical sense of it ( when it comes to economy, ) was something that was sorely lacking in post-Soviet Russia, and the results were devastating, since people couldn't make the well-informed decisions.
But now, in Ukraine, in spite of all the claptrap that comes from the new government, everything is thoroughly discussed with the public at least via the internet ( and I guess some TV channels) He who has ears let him hear.
So I am not going to play your game "is it spending per agency?"
"Which agencies are receiving this or that?"
No, they are not talking in terms of the "agencies" ( because "agencies" might mean a gazillion of things.)
They are talking in terms of salaries, pensions, military budget, spending on healthcare and education.
There is too much to translate, so listen yourself what those in the know are saying, and try to figure it out.
Walker is simply saying election can't happen until after the territory is freed from armed occupation. The election in Donbas is part of the formula, but it doesn't state whether or not the elections occur during the occupation. No offense (haha) but Russia doesn't have a reputation for upholding free elections. Its all in the timing.
Correct.
And THIS is going directly against everything that has been discussed and agreed upon during Minsk-2, and signed by Poroshenko.
Americans would love to annul the very decisions that were made with German/French participation, and that's why Kiev would love to bring the US now to the table of negotiations, to override them.
But Moscow doesn't budge.
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The crucial part is what happens first and how to guarantee its implemented at all? You know the terms it sounds like... how do you propose its done, all at once or ??
Do you even know what the conditions, the "roadmap for the peace on Donbass" (so-called Frank Walter Steinmeier's formula) are?
Quote:
Piped gas is typically sold via long term contracts for a lot of reasons, the main one being it doesn't have a spot price and its sold directly to buyers instead of on an open market. So while arranging contracts for TRANSIT to customers, Gazprom typically enters into contracts for a number of years, although 10 seems long. Demanding 10 years is probably just a starting position. This is a commercial negotiation...
That was not my question.
My question was - don't you find it a bit strange, demands for commercial contracts with the "aggressor state?"
P.S. The big part of people that left Ukraine within the last five years ( about 10 million of them) didn't come as the result of the "annexation of the territories by the aggressor state - i.e. Russia."
Ukraine lost about 10 million people that left in search of jobs, since its own economy got ruined after the coup d'etat.
Before you accuse someone of ignorance, you must first learn to answer for your words.
...
So all your words turned out to be empty chatter again. I understand your desire to present Ukraine as "the most-most in the world" and to beat damned Rashka. But all this is only in your dream, and the reality is ruthless. And you're the one who looks ignorant and ridiculous.
Plums counted.
I didn't say it was the largest exporter in the world in 2016. You guys keep bleating about the past and ignore the recent times. Look up the data for the most recent year. I'm still on the fence whether you are not very bright or deliberately trying to ignore the current data... but I'm trying to give you a chance.
FFS, Ukraine is onlly spending 60 billion on its infrastructure between now and 2030 DKM. They need to spend 20 times that just to make up for the last 20 years of neglect. New rolling stock and locomotives? It doesn't mean a thing when the track beds and rails those trains run on are worthless. A house without a foundation is worthless. New equipment at the ports? What about what it's built on? The pier? Sure small ships can dock but what about bigger cargo carriers, bulk carriers? If the piers aren't strong enough you'll have problems.
The investment in trains, port infrastructure and yes even rails are mostly in the private sector now, so they don't count in the budget for infrastructure. This will accelerate as more government assets, including piers, are privatized.
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At the current growth rates, that will be the end of next year. Not counting Russian occupied Donbas which is now the poorest region in Europe. It does depend on how you measure it though and I expect Russia to continue to focus on misleading metrics.
, a formula to which now Russians are simply pointing at, seems to be the point of major head ache and irritation for Washington. Up to the point that Kurt Walker yet again rushed to the rescue, saying basically that it's an "incorrect formula" and it needs to be changed or something like that. 
