Men and Women retiring alone to a new city/state -- where will you go and why? (moving, community)
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Awasner, the $439K houses are a bit steep for many of the posters here (including myself, and I am in the top quintile of earners nationwide). From experience here in DC Metro, I'd guess that Otter Rock - although beautiful - is not the last house for retirees. Hype aside, the median household income in Otter Rock is $56K. Given the current underwriting rules, the median income supports a house price of $170K. Wages nationwide have been stagnant for the past twenty years, and they are still declining. It has never been the case that wages rise to meet inflation - rather, prices decline to meet wages. Therefore, there will be fewer qualified prospects in the future, not more.
The Otter Rock house pricing model works as long as you have a greater number of qualified retirees wanting to move in, than are moving out.
BUT - We're getting to the tail end of the well-heeled Boomers with equity to burn. We also approach the end of Housing Bubble II. Gen X and the Millennials are renters, for the most part, without pensions and with modest 401(K)s in comparison to their elders. Anyway, there are other places to live for people who contemplate retiring on 50% of their pre-retirement income (same article). Personally, I find it hard to imagine a queue of straitened X'ers lining up with cash or mortgages in hand, looking to spend twice as much on retirement housing on a cost per month basis, than they were spending on pre-retirement housing.
So, respectfully, I must view your report with a bit of skepticism. Sounds like a lot of people want out, and want their wishing price before they get out. They face fewer prospects able to meet that wishing price. They do not want to sell their houses unless they can get their wishing prices, or avoid bringing money to the closing table, or both. Therefore, the marketing engine is revved into high gear. Hence, your post - extolling the virtues of unaffordable living in Otter Rock.
Please disclose - are you a real estate salesman, by any chance?
Who is going to buy the $400K+ houses that older retirees want to get out from under, once they are ready to move on?
Awasner, the $439K houses are a bit steep for many of the posters here (including myself, and I am in the top quintile of earners nationwide). From experience here in DC Metro, I'd guess that Otter Rock - although beautiful - is not the last house for retirees. Hype aside, the median household income in Otter Rock is $56K. Given the current underwriting rules, the median income supports a house price of $170K. Wages nationwide have been stagnant for the past twenty years, and they are still declining. It has never been the case that wages rise to meet inflation - rather, prices decline to meet wages. Therefore, there will be fewer qualified prospects in the future, not more.
The Otter Rock house pricing model works as long as you have a greater number of qualified retirees wanting to move in, than are moving out.
BUT - We're getting to the tail end of the well-heeled Boomers with equity to burn. We also approach the end of Housing Bubble II. Gen X and the Millennials are renters, for the most part, without pensions and with modest 401(K)s in comparison to their elders. Anyway, there are other places to live for people who contemplate retiring on 50% of their pre-retirement income (same article). Personally, I find it hard to imagine a queue of straitened X'ers lining up with cash or mortgages in hand, looking to spend twice as much on retirement housing on a cost per month basis, than they were spending on pre-retirement housing.
So, respectfully, I must view your report with a bit of skepticism. Sounds like a lot of people want out, and want their wishing price before they get out. They face fewer prospects able to meet that wishing price. They do not want to sell their houses unless they can get their wishing prices, or avoid bringing money to the closing table, or both. Therefore, the marketing engine is revved into high gear. Hence, your post - extolling the virtues of unaffordable living in Otter Rock.
Please disclose - are you a real estate salesman, by any chance?
Who is going to buy the $400K+ houses that older retirees want to get out from under, once they are ready to move on?
Excellent analysis. I, too, thought that the over-the-top description of Otter Rock sounded like it was written by a chamber of commerce representative or a realtor. I'm sure Otter Rock is a very nice place, but that description was really "trying too hard".
BUT - We're getting to the tail end of the well-heeled Boomers with equity to burn. We also approach the end of Housing Bubble II. Gen X and the Millennials are renters, for the most part, without pensions and with modest 401(K)s in comparison to their elders. Anyway, there are other places to live for people who contemplate retiring on 50% of their pre-retirement income (same article). Personally, I find it hard to imagine a queue of straitened X'ers lining up with cash or mortgages in hand, looking to spend twice as much on retirement housing on a cost per month basis, than they were spending on pre-retirement housing.
So, respectfully, I must view your report with a bit of skepticism. Sounds like a lot of people want out, and want their wishing price before they get out. They face fewer prospects able to meet that wishing price. They do not want to sell their houses unless they can get their wishing prices, or avoid bringing money to the closing table, or both. Therefore, the marketing engine is revved into high gear. Hence, your post - extolling the virtues of unaffordable living in Otter Rock.
Who is going to buy the $400K+ houses that older retirees want to get out from under, once they are ready to move on?
From what I have been reading, I generally agree with your analysis, except for one thing. There is huge money that the Boomers (and their really elderly parents) will be leaving in the next 5 to 10 to 20 yrs to their offspring and grandkids via inheritance. Inheritance may be the biggest source of assets for X and M, and if they use it wisely, some can buy the $400K house. That doesn't mean they will keep these homes; property tax may be staggering by the time they inherit.
It's the Boomers wanting their selling price today that may have the problem, as their kids are not yet up to snuff (i.e., did not get their inheritance yet). Of course many lenders may not accept inherited money as part of the qualification if a mortgage is involved, they want to see earned income.
Excellent analysis. I, too, thought that the over-the-top description of Otter Rock sounded like it was written by a chamber of commerce representative or a realtor. I'm sure Otter Rock is a very nice place, but that description was really "trying too hard".
I did a little online research on Otter Rock and couldn't see it as a suitable place for retirees. There is limited medical care on the coast, and as mentioned, houses are expensive.
It does look beautiful, as do the Aussies, but I wonder too if the poster was trying to sell property there.
How did you all decide WHERE? (if it was somewhere else?) - if you are on your own, don't know anyone in a warmer climate that you know you need (except for late husband's cousins - LOVE them but don't care for the area) - figured I'd take some trips but that's still scary - HATE the idea of renting (noise, moving twice, etc.) - but don't want to make a huge mistake and buy somewhere that I HATE. Maybe this would be better for chat but those folks all seem to know each other.
Read the posts & see areas people are recommending. Ask the Chamber of Commerce for a visitor's guide. Look on the web for places you think you might like. Google best places to retire to.
That's how I started. Plus, my brother lives in Tennessee & he really wants me closer, so I paid special attention to the state. It's become top on my list but I still have to visit & check it out.
Flamingo: Anyone can join in on Chat. We certainly do not all know each other and everyone is welcome. But I agree that your comment about "where" is appropriate for this LONG thread. I myself am burned out trying to decide where to move. I thought I had my place picked out (Greenville SC) and then visited twice and decided I could not live in the south. I haven't given up yet on moving, but I spend less time thinking about it.
You hit the nail on the head. Where is the perfect place to live and what should I do if I get there and hate it?
You hit the nail on the head. Where is the perfect place to live and what should I do if I get there and hate it?
I've come to the conclusion that there just isn't "perfect." Much of America's best locations seem to be going downhill from either overpopulation and traffic; overbearing tourism; high COL, taxes, crime; fiscal woes, degradation of the environment; changed political views, etc.
i.e., I hear so many people (including some who have moved East) say California today isn't the place they grew up in and loved; I hear people here (and those moving away from here) saying the same thing about New England.
Some who move South from North eventually want to move halfway back, and some who move North mostly to be near family miss where they used to live. Add the weird weather patterns of late.
There's only one way to rationally decide, imo, and that's with an objective comparison between a handful of places with the 5 or 10 must-have factors (takes a lot of research, b/c there's so much superficial/stereotypical info on specific places. And even then, rationality cannot always rule. A place may meet all our criteria, but living there after the big move may just prove to be "off."
There's not perfect, but there is "better than where I/we used to live," and that means "good enough."
Flamingo: Anyone can join in on Chat. We certainly do not all know each other and everyone is welcome. But I agree that your comment about "where" is appropriate for this LONG thread. I myself am burned out trying to decide where to move. I thought I had my place picked out (Greenville SC) and then visited twice and decided I could not live in the south. I haven't given up yet on moving, but I spend less time thinking about it.
You hit the nail on the head. Where is the perfect place to live and what should I do if I get there and hate it?
I doubt there's any "perfect place" anywhere and we'll always have to compromise. Whether we want to or not. The list of pros just has to outweigh the cons.
I have no intention of moving away from here, but if I did it wouldn't be far, and reading all these posts...and basically most of CD!...I have researched places that would never enter my mind. I find them interesting and some look like they'd be really nice places to live. But "perfect"? For a lot of people, maybe, but not for me. I've thought about moving back to Payson or Prescott but, like you, I don't think about it as much anymore.
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