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Obama has went to Detroit 2 days ago to rally for Witchmore.
Witchmore is an incumbent, was considered the rising star of the Democratic party. This is usually not done, unless there is real chance of her losing.
Also, there are the polls we see, and there are the internal polls the political party see but don't release.
Michigan has changed. It is not the same state, politically, that it was even ten years ago. Rural Michigan is much more favorable for the Republican Party, now. The suburbs, think Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, and Oakland Counties, have become more favorable for the Democratic Party, as well.
However, national polling indicates the suburbs are swinging back towards the Republican Party. If Ms. Dixon runs up the margins of rural Michigan, and does much better in the suburbs, then she has the potential to win the race. If Governor Whitmer does not lose much support in the suburbs, then she will win reelection. Should Governor Whitmer prevail, she will not win by ten percentage points, like she did in 2018. No matter what, Governor Whitmer will lose rural support.
Now, if you want to talk about Michigan House races, I believe Mr. Gibbs will win the Third Congressional District, and that Representatives Kildee and Slotkin will lose reelection. An overperformance of Ms. Dixon will have down-ballot implications.
Uh huh. You can see that all the way from North Carolina.
To me, it seems sort of magical to expect that highly motivated rural Michigan voters can somehow replace losses in Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, and Oakland counties. Populations in rural areas of Michigan, while reliably red, have remained stagnant. And there's a reason why Michigan congressional districts that lean Republican cover huge areas, while congressional districts that lean Democratic are much smaller. IMO, there's simply not enough votes in rural Michigan to overcome the blue shift in previously traditional red counties.
You say that there are suburbs shifting red...or at least shifting less blue. Perhaps...which ones are shifting?
Right now there are three proposals on the ballot. Two of them are opposed by the Michigan GOP. All three of them are running 60/40 for passage in the polls. The proposal that effectively puts Roe v Wade into the state constitution set a record for number of people signing the petitions to put the proposal on the ballot. A bigly record.
If you seek coat tails in this election - those are them. Not Tudor Nixon's gubernatorial candidacy.
But maybe I'm wrong and you're right. We'll know in another week or so.
A belief that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.
A claim that Democrats want a drag queen are in every school.
An insistence that local teachers are involved in a nefarious plot to groom school children into pedophilia targets.
Tudor Nixon is all in on at least two of the above. Need I go on?
Two more things that Tudor Nixon has directly opined upon.
A 13 year old girl, raped by her uncle, should be forced to carry a resultant pregnancy to term.
The Democratic Party is trying to destroy the United States in revenge for having lost the Civil War.
Lol.
Well, we are seeing news that the DHS was involved in censoring and manipulation on social media platforms. Whether or not that effected the election, we will never really know.
We have seen some schools that have a disturbing need to expose children to inappropriate (for the age) agendas that really don't benefit how children are being taught. People try to point out that it is teacher specific, and not the agenda of school districts, or the Democratic party. Yet, we see Biden interviewing transgender person Dylan Mulvaney. Why ? What is this weird focus on transgender people ? And pushing for awareness of them in children's schools ? Leave all agenda's, religious, political, or social out of schools. https://nypost.com/2022/10/24/biden-...geous-immoral/
As far as Dixon's thoughts on abortion, it's her right, just like it's your right (and mine) to have a different opinion on them. Her thoughts aren't some made up MAGA thing, it's part of her beliefs which she's entitled to.
Uh huh. You can see that all the way from North Carolina.
Yes, my gut never lies! It was right about President Trump winning, in 2016, and President Biden winning, in 2020.
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Originally Posted by djmilf
To me, it seems sort of magical to expect that highly motivated rural Michigan voters can somehow replace losses in Kalamazoo, Kent, Muskegon, and Oakland counties. Populations in rural areas of Michigan, while reliably red, have remained stagnant. And there's a reason why Michigan congressional districts that lean Republican cover huge areas, while congressional districts that lean Democratic are much smaller. IMO, there's simply not enough votes in rural Michigan to overcome the blue shift in previously traditional red counties.
That did not stop President Trump from winning the state, in 2016. But, it was enough for him to lose in 2020. That is why Ms. Dixon's win, or loss, is dependent on the amount of suburban voters that shift towards the Republican Party.
The rural areas are becoming even more reliably Republican then they previously were. And, Macomb County is becoming more Republican. The suburbs will decide this election, and polling indicates suburban voters are returning to the Republican Party.
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf
You say that there are suburbs shifting red...or at least shifting less blue. Perhaps...which ones are shifting?
National polling indicates the suburbs, in general, are swinging back towards the Republican Party.
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf
But maybe I'm wrong and you're right. We'll know in another week or so.
Well, we are seeing news that the DHS was involved in censoring and manipulation on social media platforms. Whether or not that effected the election, we will never really know.
DHS was involved in countering propaganda put out by such fine outfits as RT and the Internet Research Agency in St Petersburg, Russia. Even the Republican Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said that Russia had interfered with the 2016 election.
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We have seen some schools that have a disturbing need to expose children to inappropriate (for the age) agendas that really don't benefit how children are being taught.
Why yes we have. Making people afraid of LGBQT+ seems to be part of the plan, right up there with baseless claims that teachers are grooming children to become gay. As for books being forced upon children, it's more about books in school libraries, the authors of said books seeking to help children who are dealing with questions about their sexuality. Yes, some do go a little too far. But in the age of the internet, does banning said books mean that teenagers can't find the same content online if they so choose to?
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As far as Dixon's thoughts on abortion, it's her right, just like it's your right (and mine) to have a different opinion on them. Her thoughts aren't some made up MAGA thing, it's part of her beliefs which she's entitled to.
The difference is that neither you nor I are running for governor. If Prop 3 passes, a governor holding Tudor Nixon's views might try to circumvent the Michigan constitution for personal beliefs.
As for whether it's a MAGA thing, I can only say that many under the MAGA banner hold such a view, but I can think of no public figure not under said banner (say, a Democrat?) who holds such a view.
DHS was involved in countering propaganda put out by such fine outfits as RT and the Internet Research Agency in St Petersburg, Russia. Even the Republican Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said that Russia had interfered with the 2016 election.
Why yes we have. Making people afraid of LGBQT+ seems to be part of the plan, right up there with baseless claims that teachers are grooming children to become gay. As for books being forced upon children, it's more about books in school libraries, the authors of said books seeking to help children who are dealing with questions about their sexuality. Yes, some do go a little too far. But in the age of the internet, does banning said books mean that teenagers can't find the same content online if they so choose to?
The difference is that neither you nor I are running for governor. If Prop 3 passes, a governor holding Tudor Nixon's views might try to circumvent the Michigan constitution for personal beliefs.
As for whether it's a MAGA thing, I can only say that many under the MAGA banner hold such a view, but I can think of no public figure not under said banner (say, a Democrat?) who holds such a view.
I'm not talking about the 2016 election. DHS Leaks EXPOSE Government Conspiracy To Subvert Election, Censor https://youtu.be/z9Ok4s3FpiI
No one wants anyone to be afraid of the LGBT community. And no one is banning any books. What people are upset about, is in trying to protect the rights of transgender individuals, they are violating the rights of girls/women. Also, there are many instances of school districts keeping certain things regarding their children from their parents. That is wrong. I get it. The school system doesn't want a gender confused child to go home to their parents that might not be very accepting of what their child is going through. Unfortunately, this isn't the schools business.
And no books are being banned, nor do people want them to be. Parents just want their children's access to books to be age appropriate.
If Prop 3 is approved it , it will be in the state constitution. If Tudor wins and does try to circumvent it, which she said she wouldn't, I highly doubt she would be successful.
If you think abortion rights are purely a Democrat / Republican thing....I feel sorry for you, you've definitely bought into the propaganda. Like there aren't any Democrats that are pro life, or any Republicans that aren't pro choice.... As far as a public figures that are pro life..
aren't these Democrats pro life ? Not saying there is a lot, but don't do the tribal this side, that side thing.
John Bel Edwards
Joe Manchin
Joe Donnelly
Bob Casey
Dan Lipinski
Collin Peterson
Sanford Bishop
I'm not talking about the 2016 election. DHS Leaks EXPOSE Government Conspiracy To Subvert Election, Censor https://youtu.be/z9Ok4s3FpiI
I misunderstood that you were talking about current events. More information in your original posting would have clarified it for me.
As for linking a video, I tend not to do videos. If you wish to bring it into the conversion, at least please summarize said content.
Quote:
No one wants anyone to be afraid of the LGBT community. And no one is banning any books. What people are upset about, is in trying to protect the rights of transgender individuals, they are violating the rights of girls/women. Also, there are many instances of school districts keeping certain things regarding their children from their parents. That is wrong. I get it. The school system doesn't want a gender confused child to go home to their parents that might not be very accepting of what their child is going through. Unfortunately, this isn't the schools business.
And no books are being banned, nor do people want them to be. Parents just want their children's access to books to be age appropriate.
The recent Dearborn School Board meetings would lead me to believe otherwise.
And my comment still stands - while there are books that depict sexual acts that obviously should not be available to a third grader, removing such books from a high school library will not prevent a 10th grader from finding the same sort of content on the internet. Except that then it will be produced and presented by at best a pornographer and at worst a pedophile.
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If Prop 3 is approved it , it will be in the state constitution. If Tudor wins and does try to circumvent it, which she said she wouldn't, I highly doubt she would be successful.
Forgive me if I say that I find Tudor Nixon's claims to be less than convincing.
A sitting governor can get away with as much as the Michigan Supreme Court will allow her.
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If you think abortion rights are purely a Democrat / Republican thing....I feel sorry for you, you've definitely bought into the propaganda.
Except that I never said that abortion rights are purely a Democratic / Republican thing, therefore while I have no actual use for your pity, I appreciate your concern on my behalf.
What I did say was that Tudor Dixon, in her own words, specifically has an extreme view of abortion rights.
Yes, my gut never lies! It was right about President Trump winning, in 2016, and President Biden winning, in 2020.
I myself was gobsmacked in 2016 by Trump's Michigan win.
In retrospect, it was a combination of things that led to that victory. Republican enthusiasm, definitely helped by the Trump camp focusing on Michigan with multiple rallies in the last weeks of the campaign. A polling breakdown, wherein pollsters simply stopped taking the pulse of the Michigan voters after early October. The Clinton campaign simply stopped campaigning in Michigan, lulled by the stale polls and the assumption of the unbroachable "Blue Wall". And finally, voter ennui for the Blue team that was saddled with a Presidential candidate who appeared to have all the warmth and charisma of Richard Nixon, Bob Dole, Al Gore, and John Kerry - combined.
Quote:
That did not stop President Trump from winning the state, in 2016. But, it was enough for him to lose in 2020. That is why Ms. Dixon's win, or loss, is dependent on the amount of suburban voters that shift towards the Republican Party.
The rural areas are becoming even more reliably Republican then they previously were. And, Macomb County is becoming more Republican. The suburbs will decide this election, and polling indicates suburban voters are returning to the Republican Party.
National polling indicates the suburbs, in general, are swinging back towards the Republican Party.
I would opine that it would be unwise to generalize a claimed national trend, such as suburban voter sentiment, to a more specific localization. It's been said that all politics are local, and my personal take is that politics are even more local during the mid-terms.
Fox news decision desk just called it they predict Gretchen Whitmer to be the winner.
Rampant cheating in Wayne Co.
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As far as a public figures that are pro life..
