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If anything now it looks like the little 'powder keg' in that little corner of the world has blown up to such an extent that the actions there now have international significance. Who really would want to blow away a civilian airliner? Perhaps separatists who thought it was a Ukrainian military transport? Perhaps Ukrainians who want to embarrass the Russians? We'll just have to wait until the black box becomes available? Speaking of which there could be a battle for that unless it has been found already. The box will be the 'smoking' gun.
They already found two blackboxes, one of which is already in the hand of Moscow. Don't know who exactly found the second one.
That said, it doesn't really matter. We already know that a missile hit the aircraft and the blackbox won't tell us who shot it. I doubt the pilots knew what was going on until **** hit the fan.
I'm afraid that as long as the Russian commanders of Eastern Ukraine want to play war like big boys, the Ukrainian military will do the same. What happened with that aircraft will only fuel the tensions, especially after a rebel leader announced that there will be no seize fire in order to clean up after the mess they caused.
headline at Abendblatt.de:
Russian media: Ukrainians wanted to hit Putin's plane
15.42 Uhr (MEST): Russian media speculate about MH17
State TV , Russia 24 quotes a civilian air-expert saying the Logo
on the airplane was similar to the Russian flag
Putin was returning from America and at the same time flying over Eastern Europe
according to "Perwy Canal"
--------------------------------------
Zudem wollen Augenzeugen ein zweites Flugzeug über der Absturzstelle gesehen haben.
Der Perwy-Kanal mutmaßte, dass eine ukrainische Militärmaschine in den Absturz von
MH17 verwickelt gewesen sein könnte. Einheimische hätten einen Menschen mit
Fallschirm in der Region abspringen sehen. Von einem beschossenen oder gar
abgestürzten zweiten Flugzeug fehlt bislang jede Spur.
Next, the BUK system captured on 29 June has from several sources (including Ukranian military) been discredited as being an inoperable system. If this is so, this is another system, and everyone can guess where it came from.
Just a week or so the separatists were fleeing from Slovyansk - one of their main bases - in total disarray. Now, the reports indicate that the Ukrainian military has been forced to a stalemate, mainly because heavy weaponry has suddenly appeared out of the blue to the separatists. And everyone can guess where those came from as well.
Earlier Russia has donated only hand-held light weapons to the separatists, but now suddenly heavy SAM and rocket systems on armoured vehicles has turned up in the region. A Ukrainian column was rocketed to smithereens just a few days ago. So Russia has stepped up the ante, from passive support to active. Some witnesses even say that rockets have been fired from Russia, in the Rostov region, also on video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUUzNnGGbSkhttp://vk.com/video-38854900_169726067
The airplanes downed by the separatists have been by Igla SAM manpads, which has a range of 11,000 ft. The downed civilian aircraft flew at 33,000 ft. So go figure.
As Finland has earlier operated the BUK-17 system, it didn't take long before finding a poster on Finnish forums who has actually operated one as a conscript. He said that it's a weapon that takes months to master, and easily several weeks to handle even adequately. Without an experienced head fire controller, you're not able to get the missile flying, as it's not a simple "press the button" system. So most likely at least the fire controller has much experience, being either a Russian 'advisor', or a former Soviet/Ukrainian/Russian military man.
The poster also said that especially on the older BUK-11 system the flight radar is rather crude, and it's very difficult to see a difference between a military and civilian plane, especially for the untrained eye.
headline at Abendblatt.de:
Russian media: Ukrainians wanted to hit Putin's plane
15.42 Uhr (MEST): Russian media speculate about MH17
State TV , Russia 24 quotes a civilian air-expert saying the Logo
on the airplane was similar to the Russian flag
Putin was returning from America and at the same time flying over Eastern Europe
according to "Perwy Canal"
Next, the BUK system captured on 29 June has from several sources (including Ukranian military) been discredited as being an inoperable system. If this is so, this is another system, and everyone can guess where it came from.
Just a week or so the separatists were fleeing from Slovyansk - one of their main bases - in total disarray.
Who told you so?
No, their departure was well-planned and well-executed; one of the main reasons they've left Slavyansk ( or rather one of the main reasons they TOOK it to begin with, turning it into their stronghold) was that it was a strategical point IF/WHEN Russian army was going to enter Ukraine. Since it didn't happen, they decided to regroup and proceed with a different plan. That's why they've left Slavyansk in a very organized manner, while one of their groups engaged Ukrainian army in a fight, diverting their attention from the rest. The majority of this particular group has been destroyed.
Who told you so?
No, their departure was well-planned and well-executed; one of the main reasons they've left Slavyansk ( or rather one of the main reasons they TOOK it to begin with, turning it into their stronghold) was that it was a strategical point IF/WHEN Russian army was going to enter Ukraine. Since it didn't happen, they decided to regroup and proceed with a different plan. That's why they've left Slavyansk in a very organized manner, while one of their groups engaged Ukrainian army in a fight, diverting their attention from the rest. The majority of this particular group has been destroyed.
Maybe it was partly a tactical withdrawal, but if it was well executed, there must be other forces at work beside separatist-dumbass-terrorist rabble.
And I would like to express my condolences to the countries affected, and hope nobody of our Dutch, Australian, Indonesian or British posters here lost anyone near and dear.
They already found two blackboxes, one of which is already in the hand of
Moscow. Don't know who exactly found the second one
.
hmmm..going to be interesting when it gets to culpability. Not sure if this will be a canddate for the Hague. Moscow now knows without a doubt what's coming off the box. If it points to the 'Poroshenko group' you know he'll be on tv. If not well...let's see if he turns over the box. And if in fact the finger points ot separatists well it could be a whole new balllgame with commanders possibly like Strelkov ( I note him because he's supposedly 'running things' there on the separatist side in Donetsk) will be asked to visit somebody and have a chat. I'm afraid Mr. Putin will be losing whatever hair he has left since he would be put in a very compromised position. This will be a big mess.
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