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When you go "outside" your home they are recommending that you wear a mask including. Because:
1. They consider you "outside your home" when you are in stores, buses, airplanes, etc.
2. And when you are really outside, social distancing often becomes non-existent.
3. And because the data suggests that a full-fledge 50% of the people who have the virus don't know it. People let their guard down and are close to one another including family and friends.
4. The wild card is because breathing aerosols (even outside) cannot be 100% safe.
Therefore, it's better math to wear a mask for all parties. Including the 50% of the people that have the virus right now and don't show any symptoms.
And yet, we still consider outdoor recreation an "essential" activity. The TV news stations here promote it, which makes absolutely no sense when they keep stressing "keep your distance" at the same time. How is it possible to keep a distance when you're outside exposed to the elements, especially when many other people are around? Then they tell us to wear masks. Oh, that's brilliant. "Get out & enjoy the weather & the hiking trails, but wear a mask." That defeats the whole damn purpose!
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Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
For me, I always thought it made sense because people cannot figure out WTF 6 foot means. As in, delivery people walking close and closer to me and I am walking backwards. Or someone passing me on a sidewalk behind me power walking in the neighborhood because they are F'in clueless. I digress.
Or when I'm out doing what I consider essential errands: getting gasoline, groceries, etc., and some bozo smoking a cigarette doesn't understand the meaning of "distance" and blows his smoke in everybody else's faces.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
There is positively and absolutely no debate that the net-net-net is we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay worse off economically by going in lock-down mode versus letting the chips fall where they may. Fear is driving this. Obviously I have some fear that my number is going to be up based on my actions which include (too many) posts.
Mathematically speaking, when it all said and done, we will have spent multi-millions of dollars per death which looks to be under 1% of the total population. If a depression happens, the math will get even worse. Fear is such a powerful thing that we are where we are. This isn't to minimize the human toll nor try to put a price on a life. But remove the fear and I promise you, we would not be doing what we are doing. The fact that anybody age 14-90 can fall, victim, is the catalyst for the fear.
Absolutely, and it's not only horrible from an economic standpoint, but from a freedom standpoint also. We cherish our liberties as Americans for good reasons, and all these restrictions are not only unAmerican, but in many ways unconstitutional. We are allowing the government to be in control of our lives WAY too much, and there can only be so much of it before rebellion begins to take shape.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
Yes, extremely disappointing. Rest assured, epidemiologists have been warning about such a crisis for a long time. Even Bill Gates explained on a TED talk what is about to happen. We simply were not remotely prepared. So we have a massive amount of brainpower that has predicted something this for a long while. They were mostly ignored.
This irresponsibly has plenty of examples in most 1st world governments. Like when they run up massive deficits or continue to repeat idiotic mistakes. It turns out that we are better at learning after doing something right rather than after doing something wrong. At MIT, researchers proved that our mind learns (it "sticks" much better) when we have a success versus a failure! Basically, the brain's neurons are able to keep a short term memory of a recent success or failure. But during this learning, researchers found that prolonged neural signals happened when we do things right versus learning from doing things wrong. Basically, doing it wrong has less neural activity.
Rest assured, we are going to have a very short memory. It's why negative history has a way of repeating itself.
As they say: hindsight is 20/20 , but hindsight should have been 2005, 2010, or 2015 in terms of developing some kind of treatment after they knew about the SARS outbreak. It's so ironic how much we love our technology, but yet we're still behind the times when it comes to effective treatments, vaccines, and cures for not only SARS, but cancer, and other health matters.
Mathematically speaking, when it all said and done, we will have spent multi-millions of dollars per death which looks to be under 1% of the total population. If a depression happens, the math will get even worse. Fear is such a powerful thing that we are where we are. This isn't to minimize the human toll nor try to put a price on a life. But remove the fear and I promise you, we would not be doing what we are doing. The fact that anybody age 14-90 can fall, victim, is the catalyst for the fear.
I don't disagree with your general assessment, but your math on the mortality rate is way off. Like way off.
Right now the official nationwide mortality rate is 2.76%. We were sitting at 2.12% last week prior to a barrage of deaths. In areas like New Orleans, Detroit, and NYC where the hospitals are inundated, mortality rates are generally 3-4%.
If your logic was that we don't know how many people already have it and have never been diagnosed which lowers the mortality rate, sure, that's understandable, but it may be counter-balanced by 3 objective facts:
1) Since 3/28, we've had a rough total of 180,000 NEW confirmed cases, many of whom will not be counted in the death toll for potentially another week or so. Because we increase that load exponentially and we are potentially 12-14 days from reaching our peak nationally, you're going to see a healthcare system be overloaded in many parts of this country to a degree that is not at all factored into your %.
2) Future hot spot cities, particularly ones that still haven't adjusted behaviours or warned the public sufficiently, will feel the same waves that the aforementioned hot spot cities have. Georgia's governor, for instance, just said that he didn't know people could be asymptomatic and still pass it on. Like he just said that. We've known this for weeks. He's either lying or he cares that little about the people he represents that he never bothered to read anything on this virus. The leadership in this country from the top down (aside from a few very forward thinking governors, such as DeWine in Ohio, Newsom in California, etc) has been entirely lacking. These hot spot cities will increase the national mortality rate significantly. I would hate to see hot spot cities in Florida and Arizona where the amount of elderly rivals that of parts of northern Italy where we saw mortality rates as high as 9%. Incidentally, those happen to also be the states where there was really poor leadership on the state level (and still is).
3) Where the U.S. is underreporting confirmed cases, China is doing something similar in that they don't count asymptomatic carriers as confirmed cases. In short, they're both underreporting with the same idea in hand, so while these two countries are being wholly dishonest, the effect of which is a lower mortality rate but also a longer period of time under which this pandemic will spread out, and I think it's safe to say that we will reach herd immunity before we reach a vaccine. If you want to know how many people will actually die, run a few numbers on it yourself: take 50-70% of 330 million Americans required to reach herd immunity (let's say 60% just for ease) and multiple it by whatever mortality rate you're convinced of. It might not average out entirely to 3% but I can tell you that it also won't be 1%. That's a lot of deaths that will surprise a lot of people, but it shouldn't. We just have no objective interest in science in this country. The only way we have a shot of not seeing 1.5 million Americans (and that's herd immunity at 1%) die in a very short amount of time is if we disobey leadership, and interestingly, I think that has happened in a lot of places where there hasn't been any.
I've been nailing these numbers since January. I've only gotten one thing wrong thus far and that's that I thought we would have recommended a nation wide lock-down well before April. But I had 1,000 people per day dying in early April. Unfortunately, I think that in early May we're all going to have a very hard time turning on the nightly news. People haven't yet prepared themselves for that.
Americans can never just rip off a bandaid. If they had done so earlier, we would be in a position to begin re-opening the economy now and not months from now.
We also would have saved a lot of lives.
Last edited by llowllevellowll; 04-04-2020 at 12:39 PM..
I don't disagree with your general assessment, but your math on the mortality rate is way off. Like way off.
Right now the official nationwide mortality rate is 2.76%. We were sitting at 2.12% last week prior to a barrage of deaths. In areas like New Orleans, Detroit, and NYC where the hospitals are inundated, mortality rates are generally 3-4%.
Sorry, WHO has an agenda. And that is to scare people to listen (some people "need" this, I guess).
Today is the first day I have seen a real effort toward social distancing in the Phoenix area. The freeways are busy but aterials are way down. There is a line a mile long out side of Walmart and other stores that are open as they limit the number in the store at one time and make people waiting stand 6 feet apart. We had a tire emergency and Discount won't go in your car now. You have to drive it the bay and back out yourself. I saw people wearing masks even. But younger ones. The geezer crowd apparently is still getting their cues from the president who says he won't be wearing one.
Arizona had a big jump in cases yesterday and the positive rate rose. It's probably too late now.
It use to be 10% of people who don't know they have it (no symptoms), then 18%, now 25-50%. Do you see a trend?
Well, so far the numbers of reported countries are aligning with their estimate. Unfortunate for this logic, they are certainly not the only group of scientists and medical professionals who are researching and tabulating their results.
The scientific method will win out every time over political agenda.
We've got enough data to start using our own logic too, and 1% doesn't hold up except in the very nascent beginnings of this virus in places where hospitals still have resources.
Now, if you tell me that 6 weeks from now, we'll be able to place as many people as we will have hospitalized on ventilators? Then sure, I'll re-examine, but as of right now, we will not be prepared for that and we're not unique: a lot of cities around the world will not be prepared for it either.
You'd have to literally be blindfolding yourself now to not see what's next.
Today is the first day I have seen a real effort toward social distancing in the Phoenix area. The freeways are busy but aterials are way down. There is a line a mile long out side of Walmart and other stores that are open as they limit the number in the store at one time and make people waiting stand 6 feet apart. We had a tire emergency and Discount won't go in your car now. You have to drive it the bay and back out yourself. I saw people wearing masks even. But younger ones. The geezer crowd apparently is still getting their cues from the president who says he won't be wearing one.
Arizona had a big jump in cases yesterday and the positive rate rose. It's probably too late now.
Well, so far the numbers of reported countries are aligning with their estimate. Unfortunate for this logic, they are certainly not the only group of scientists and medical professionals who are researching and tabulating their results.
The scientific method will win out every time over political agenda.
We've got enough data to start using our own logic too, and 1% doesn't hold up except in the very nascent beginnings of this virus in places where hospitals still have resources.
Now, if you tell me that 6 weeks from now, we'll be able to place as many people as we will have hospitalized on ventilators? Then sure, I'll re-examine, but as of right now, we will not be prepared for that and we're not unique: a lot of cities around the world will not be prepared for it either.
You'd have to literally be blindfolding yourself now to not see what's next.
Here was my point (and my only point). It's been quoted many times lately: "if nothing has been done, 1.1M to 2.2M would die" in the USA. That's the number I used. Take $2T (and this is far from the total $ impact) divided by 1.1M to 2.2M and see what number you come up with?
Now you can tell me why your model is better. And I hope we agree that it's been an educated guess at best. No offense, but I think WHO has an agenda.
Arizona had a big jump in cases yesterday and the positive rate rose. It's probably too late now.
Ohhh, but Arizona's risk is supposed to be reduced since we tend to be more suburban than a place like NYC. We're more detached, have our own methods of transportation, etc., etc. Oh, and our wonderful, sunny, warm weather kills viruses more rapidly than a colder, wetter environment. And if anybody believes this, they probably also believe in the Easter Bunny & the Tooth Fairy!
Here was my point (and my only point). It's been quoted many times lately: "if nothing has been done, 1.1M to 2.2M would die" in the USA. That's the number I used. Take $2T (and this is far from the total $ impact) divided by 1.1M to 2.2M and see what number you come up with?
Now you can tell me why your model is better. And I hope we agree that it's been an educated guess at best. No offense, but I think WHO has an agenda.
That's a fair estimated guess. If everyone did absolutely nothing, I think the number is much higher, but overall, we are doing some things, so I think the estimate is fair.
Question: what would you do / what would you have done differently?
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