2008 Cleveland Homicides (East Cleveland: area, dating, work)

[BelieveInCleve]

Originally Posted by PeterRabbit

The census bureau claims Cleveland has 444,000 population as of 2006.
To get murders per 100,000: number of murders divided by population, multiplied by 100,000 = 7.2

No, that can only be calculated at the end of the year. It would be impossible right now to estimate the total numbers for the year, and the number per 100k. Because last year at this time we had around 45, but ended up with 135 at the end of the year. The summer months and December are Clevelands worst months for murders. I estimated 115 by the end of the year which would be 26 per 100k (for the 444,000 population) Down from 30.5 from last year with 135 murders.

[airics]

i think you are incorrect because you based a years worth of murders on 5 months.. if we end up at 115 like the above poster predicted, that would be 115 for 444000 pop divided by 4.44 = 25.9 murders per 100000k population per year average.

[airics]

referring to peterrabbit, as i was figuring cle440's comment came in.. so cle440 is also correct.

[Rockmysawks]

Originally Posted by PeterRabbit

The census bureau claims Cleveland has 444,000 population as of 2006.
To get murders per 100,000: number of murders divided by population, multiplied by 100,000 = 7.2

omg
you have horrible math skills
lrn2algebra

[Cincy-Rise]

Originally Posted by airics

i think you are incorrect because you based a years worth of murders on 5 months.. if we end up at 115 like the above poster predicted, that would be 115 for 444000 pop divided by 4.44 = 25.9 murders per 100000k population per year average.

True, but you could find out the homicide trend by taking the current amount of murders divided by the current months and multiplied by 12 and then taking that number divided by the city's pop. and then multiplied by 100,000.

Keeping in mind, summer months bring out the craziness in people ... so the data is somewhat skewed. It does give you an accurate "pacing trend" though.

[WeSoHood]

Originally Posted by Cincy-Rise

True, but you could find out the homicide trend by taking the current amount of murders divided by the current months and multiplied by 12 and then taking that number divided by the city's pop. and then multiplied by 100,000.

Keeping in mind, summer months bring out the craziness in people ... so the data is somewhat skewed. It does give you an accurate "pacing trend" though.

That's not a real accurate way to do it. It'd be way to skewed - like you said for summer months. Also, December in Cleveland is annually one of the bloodiest months as well... so it's easier just to wait until the end of the year. Of course based on current homicides you can get a general feel - but making up some formula with no merit doesn't help any.

[Cincy-Rise]

Originally Posted by WeSoHood

That's not a real accurate way to do it. It'd be way to skewed - like you said for summer months. Also, December in Cleveland is annually one of the bloodiest months as well... so it's easier just to wait until the end of the year. Of course based on current homicides you can get a general feel - but making up some formula with no merit doesn't help any.

The method I used above shows the trending figure, not what the total homicides will be. Is it not true that the formula I posted shows what a city is pacing?

[BelieveInCleve]

Technically if the trend stayed the same for the rest of the year (which it wont) the city would end up with about 66 murders, 15 per 100k. But at this time last year if we would have kept the pace we would have ended up with around 20.6 per 100k, and we ended up with 31 per 100k. Basically what Im saying is thats its not even close to accurate right now to estimate the number of murders based on the current numbers. Right now we only have 32 murders, but last year we were having 15 murders per month for 3 or 4 months.

[Cincy-Rise]

Originally Posted by Cle440

Technically if the trend stayed the same for the rest of the year (which it wont)

A trend is in a constant state of change.

[BelieveInCleve]

Originally Posted by Cincy-Rise

A trend is in a constant state of change.

Well, you know what I mean. Like if the current murder rate stayed the same for the rest of the year we would have around 68 murders for the whole year.