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Just to end that line of conversation, there's actually a fairly recent book written by a former consular official on the topic of bringing in foreign paramilitary groups under US training and supervision for deployment to overseas wars, such as Bosnia.
I'd been aware of it for about 10 years as I have family who worked in Sarajevo during the war and I brought up the topic in relation to foreign terrorists being brought into the US. Their counter claim is that the agencies were doing it to see if there were domestic terror cells controlled by Al Qaeda (now ISIS). The problem with that explanation is that all of the captured 'terrorists' were unknowingly working for US undercover police posing as Al Qaeda or ISIS, not actual foreign terrorists.
There had been similar disclosures of assisting the movement of terrorists by the cabinet ministers for the governments of France and Belgium during the war in Syria.
It's kind of confusing just what Russia has in the area of Ukraine. One sure thing is the 20th Guards Army is headquartered in Voronezh it consists of at least 2 divisions (3rd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions) and some assorted motor rifle brigades (23rd and 28th probably independant) with unknown support and engineering elements. They're sure to be heavy on artillery and long range rocket forces. 1st motorized division appears to be in reserve south of Moscow and is tank heavy. Air assets are unknown but be sure it's everything in range of Kiev.
Further south around Rostov close to the border there are several motor rifle brigades of the 30th Guards MRD all in a high state of readiness and fully supported by several engineering and artillery brigades. There are also signs of at least 1 airmobile regiment. The HQ is in Rostov. 8th guards army has at least 2 or 3 motor rifle brigades in reserve in Volgograd and further west ready to go.
Popular opinion seems to say Russia has at least 40000 well equipped and supported troops ready for war in the theatre.
In order to be a full member in NATO, countries have to make many changes and clear thresholds in a number of categories, political and military foremost. There are several layers of association a nation goes through on its path to full membership, which culminates with a vote. You can access this information online, look at what Montenegro did to get in, or Poland for a more distant example. Russia never enacted on this path, so the reason its not a member is mostly because it never pursued membership.
It's kind of confusing just what Russia has in the area of Ukraine. One sure thing is the 20th Guards Army is headquartered in Voronezh it consists of at least 2 divisions (3rd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions) and some assorted motor rifle brigades (23rd and 28th probably independant) with unknown support and engineering elements. They're sure to be heavy on artillery and long range rocket forces. 1st motorized division appears to be in reserve south of Moscow and is tank heavy. Air assets are unknown but be sure it's everything in range of Kiev.
Further south around Rostov close to the border there are several motor rifle brigades of the 30th Guards MRD all in a high state of readiness and fully supported by several engineering and artillery brigades. There are also signs of at least 1 airmobile regiment. The HQ is in Rostov. 8th guards army has at least 2 or 3 motor rifle brigades in reserve in Volgograd and further west ready to go.
Popular opinion seems to say Russia has at least 40000 well equipped and supported troops ready for war in the theatre.
And so? How many Russians want to die in order to "conquer" Ukraine. The answer is not enough to make it happen.
[quote=Ariete;50532881]They have some similarities, but the main difference is the execution of the two scenarios.
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Very similar.....Kosovo declared, unilaterally, their independence, Crimea had a referendum.
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That's a blog post. It's not a "end of all discussion" proof. Sure, the Western leaders might've promised Gorba and the USSR something, but it gets complicated after that.
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The very idea of an oral promise about this particular topic is mind blowing stupid. If it truely was an actual concern for the Russians/Gorbachev the promise would have been written as a pragraph into a treaty, but it wasn't because as you say so yourself, NATO expanding into EE was inconceivable.
What part of the declassified official documents are not clear to you??
then the "not one inch eastwards" proponents would have some real proof of breaking promises. Instead, Yeltsin signed the NATO Partnership for Peace agreement in 1994.
Read these documents and you get your proof....sure these promises were never codified in an actual treaty...when Yeltsin came along Russia was reduced pretty much to rubble and not in a position to negotiate anything.
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It started with a rebellion, and both sides committed atrocities. The war also meant that the peaceful co-existence between Serbs and Kosovars was impossible. Worth to remember that it was Finland and Russia who meditated the peace, as Russia understood the facts too. It only became a problem for Russia 10 years later when they restarted their old Soviet era 'whataboutist' scapegoating and aggressive expansionism.
Russia reaction to the Kosovo NATO campaign:
Russia strongly condemned the campaign. The president Boris Yeltsin stated that, 'Russia is deeply upset by NATO's military action against sovereign Yugoslavia, which is nothing more than open aggression.'[253] They also condemned NATO at the United Nations saying that NATO air strikes on Serbia were 'an illegal action
So Yeltsin was not exactly aboard....sure Russia was part of the peace negotiation effort later.
In order to be a full member in NATO, countries have to make many changes and clear thresholds in a number of categories, political and military foremost.
Political? You must mean have lobbyists and be a totally uncorrupt society right? Russia can more than take care of its obligations militarily.
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There are several layers of association a nation goes through on its path to full membership, which culminates with a vote. You can access this information online, look at what Montenegro did to get in, or Poland for a more distant example. Russia never enacted on this path, so the reason its not a member is mostly because it never pursued membership.
C'mon. Look at Turkey ffs. Not exactly high up on the scales of democracy now are they. NATO is kind of an al la carte organization don't you think?
All NATO was started for was to keep Germany down. the Soviets out and America in Europe. It's struggling now in order to find a reason to exist and fortunately for it Russia serves the role of antagonist nicely. I really wonder what the future holds for it. I have to admit, it does keep Europeans (some of the bloodiest peoples in human history) from their neighbors throats. Obedience to is sometimes required for peace so you Yurpeons do as your told. And die when you're expected to.
And so? How many Russians want to die in order to "conquer" Ukraine. The answer is not enough to make it happen.
I don't know about that. I'm looking into Ukrainian forces now but solid info is even harder to find. One thing is for sure there's mostly mercs on the front line and we know how that works. Mercs fight for gain, with an aim of enjoying those gains in the future. If they're not mercs they're volunteers and when it comes to professionalism and ability they've been known to lack.
Most of the stuff on Ukrainian armed forces seems to be murky at best, there's not a lot of solid proof of the existence of what is shown in the paperwork. Nor is there a lot about the condition/states of these units. Either the Ukies are really good at hiding this information or there's just not a lot to find out because it doesn't really exist aside fro mthe paper form. The ukrainian army is not in good shape. It's suspected it's being severely neglected in favor of the more cooperative fanatics because the loyalty of the Ukrainian army proper is suspect.
Don't fool youself into thinking that Ukrainians want things the way they are. Ukrainians are scared and trying to live their lives in peace. Maybe that's how politicians want it but I know the people don't. The Junta in ukraine has used terror to maintain control. It's not a good thing.
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