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Yet another interesting nomination is A. Daniluk ( who was closely associated with N. Jaresko - yet another *fake sounding* Ukrainian - i.e. it's really an American placed into Ukrainian government in key position, sort of like infamous Suprun. But Suprun was an "acting Minister of Health," while this one was Minister of Finance of Ukraine 2014-2016 ( meaning after the coup d'etat.)
i've noticed more than one name/face in Ukrainian government that doesn't strike me as Ukrainian. Mostly mid level posts, nothing too obvious. There was the girl that made the propaganda piece "I am Ukrainian" and was given a job in Odessa and Shakeasswilly himself as a close associate. There's other Georgians and Azeris too. You have to ask the question of just who runs the country. Who is in the key posts in government?
Oh, Poroshenko is already throwing hissy fits and he threatened Zelensky with a new Maidan ( he removed this twit later or wherever he posted it on Social media.)
I will be taking the threats pretty seriously. Look at the wars in Chechneya and the Caucasus. Remember Beslan? I'm not so sure those Ukrop "heroes" got lost the other day.
The people behind this don't care a ripping rats ass about Ukrainians.
i've noticed more than one name/face in Ukrainian government that doesn't strike me as Ukrainian. Mostly mid level posts, nothing too obvious. There was the girl that made the propaganda piece "I am Ukrainian" and was given a job in Odessa and Shakeasswilly himself as a close associate. There's other Georgians and Azeris too. You have to ask the question of just who runs the country. Who is in the key posts in government?
Clarification; Georgians and Lithuanians - i.e. former Soviet Nations, known for their hostile attitude to Russia, the former republics, that are supposedly *successful* in their independence.
Or so they say.
Clarification; Georgians and Lithuanians - i.e. former Soviet Nations, known for their hostile attitude to Russia, the former republics, that are supposedly *successful* in their independence.
Or so they say.
Successful after a significant part of their population fled the country or died off?
Nah, never happen.
I'm really worried that the future is going to be pretty bad for Ukrainians in general. There's just too many hands in the pot.
While everyone is discussing first appointments and decisions made by Zelensky, early election and criminal cases open against Poroshenko and his team, there is not much attention paid to a question, that’s going to define the economic and political agenda till at least the end of this year and may be even longer. I am talking about the January 1st of 2020. This is the date when the current 10-year agreement of gas transit between Russia and Ukraine comes to an end. The very agreement that back in already distant 2009 was signed by Yulia Timoshenko. ( She was sentenced because of it and ended up in jail.) Do you remember this particular photo of hers, in this intricate dress, where she is captured together with Putin? So this agreement is going to end on the night of January 1st. At this point Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of European continent are going to end up in a situation close to a critical point. The consequences can be serious, so they should be given consideration already now. So watch this video till the end, and it will become clear why exactly it’s a case.
So, what is going to happen on the first of January of 2020?
The agreement that was A. Regulating gas supply to Ukraine from Russia,
And B. The process of gas transit from Russia to Europe
is coming to an end.
Nothing indicates to us that with the new head of Nafrogaz ( A. Kobolev,) we will be able to reach any new agreements with Gazprom. Why? Because currently Naftogaz is actively engaged in the recovery of billions of dollars from Gasprom, which, as it were, was awarded to us by the Stockholm arbitration, but these are money that the Russians do not pay us, continuing to fight the decision in the courts. That much is clear, so what is going to happen further on, if the agreement is not going to be renewed before the 1st of January 2020?
Let’s start with transit, since this is probably more important.
Gazprom is currently completing two gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine - this is Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. There are some problems with both of them. Denmark is still delaying the permission to lay a gas pipeline in its territorial waters. And when it comes to the Turks, the Russians are still unable to reach the final agreement on the prices and volumes of gas supplies. But Danes are pressured by the Germans, and Russians keep on negotiating with Turks. On another hand, Americans are trying to prevent the agreements.
So in general, the probability of the pipelines launch is pretty high, but it’s still not a fact that it will take place before the end of this year. However, it does not mean that Gasprom wouldn’t be able to stop the gas transit via Ukraine from the 1st of January. It will be able to, and they are already talking about it in Ukranian Naftogaz. The head of the company, A. Kobolev, already announced that at this point Russians are increasing the transit volumes to Europe, creating the additional supplies in European gas storage facilities, so that comes 2020, at least for the first few months Europe wouldn’t be affected by the gas transit problems via Ukraine. So with other words, Moscow is planning to stop the transit, if the new agreement satisfying all sides won’t be reached.
So what will happen if the transit is going to be disconnected?
Number one, Ukraine will lose about three billion dollars a year, which we now receive as payment for transit. Secondly, for technical needs, in order to maintain gas pipelines in working order, it will be necessary to spend an additional several billion cubic meters of gas.
Thirdly and most importantly, big problems will begin with the purchase of gas for domestic consumption. You’ve already heard many times the repeated statements from Poroshenko and Kobolev about the “gas victory” that we’ve achieved, and that for several years already we were buying gas not from Russia but from Europe. This is nonsense, because we make contracts now with European companies instead of Gasprom, but we are buying the very Russian gas, but with surcharges, that partially are going into the pockets of our corrupt Ukrainian officials. So the price fluctuates depending on a season; it’s higher during the summer season and more expensive during winter season.
If the transit of gas through Ukraine ends, it will be very difficult for us to buy excess gas in Europe. Europeans will start saving it for their own needs, so there will be little left for us, and it will be very costly. Therefore Ukraine will fall on hard times. But they will be not easy for Europe either, since it will face the gas shortage. This in turn will affect Russia as well, that will be forced to reduce the gas exports.
So in general, it’s going to be a very complex geopolitical situation, not just economic one. What kind of possible consequences it may produce?
To begin with, let’s start with basic facts; Ukraine does not have huge gas fields, oil and other minerals, that would make our country valuable in the eyes of the major world players. The only things we have, is our fertile land and the gas transit pipe. We will talk about the land separately another time, but for now let’s talk about the gas transit pipe.
After Ukraine just gained independence, 100% of Russian gas transit to Europe passed through us. Now it is much less, but nonetheless these are still significant volumes. Gazprom exports gas worth tens of billions of dollars a year via Ukraine. This is more than half of Russia's defense budget. A huge amount that critically affects the Russian budget and the economy in general.
And that’s why this gas pipe was always the point of concern not only for Russia, but it was attracting the attention of the West; Americans in particular. They understood that getting control of that gas pipe, they could control Russian economy.
And that’s why this gas pipe became the geopolitical curse of Ukraine. And that’s why this control of gas flow to Europe became the reason for bigger and bigger upheavals, and sometimes – even war. Let’s look at what happened during the last 20 years.
In 2000 Russia has launched the first gas pipe bypassing Ukraine, Yamal -Western Europe via Belorussia. Soon after that Vladimir Putin met with then president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, and by September 2000 the agreement has been reached to create the consortium of the gas pipe control with Russia’s participation. Soon after that the chain of strange events followed.
First, the journalist Georgy Gongadze miraculously disappeared. Then his body has been discovered near Kiev. Then Alexander Moroz publicized his famous audio recording with the voice of L. Kuchma. The big movement “Ukraine without Kuchma” has started. The movement has been suppressed somehow, but Kuchma’s rating has plunged, while the rating of the pro-Western minster V. Yushenko started sharply growing.
Many saw the future president in him, and the protracted political crisis began.
In 2002 Putin and Kuchma returned again to the negotiations of the possible consortium for gas pipe control, they invited Germany to participate in it, but the negotiations were not all that enthusiastic, since everyone understood that during the upcoming elections of 2004 V. Yushenko could win, and all the agreements could be cancelled out.
During the second round of elections, V. Yanukovich ( supported by Moscow) has won. But V. Yushenko and his supporters started the first Maidan, ( or as it has been referred to “The Orange Revolution.”)
They prevailed in setting the third round of elections, where Victor Yushenko has won. So the idea of the consortium for joint management of the oil pipe temporarily died.
Russia became actively engaged into building the pipe routs by-passing Ukraine, while raising the gas price for Ukraine, using the incompetent actions of the Ukrainian government, that basically broke the beneficial for it contract, signed back in Kuchma times.
After yet another “gas war” Yulia Timoshenko signed the new, very hurtful for Ukraine contract, which significantly raised the gas price for Ukraine.
Victor Yanukovich, who became the new president of Ukraine in 2010, first brought this price down in exchange of extending the agreement on Russia’s lease of military base in Crimea for its Black Sea fleet; (the Kharkov Agreement.)
But then the price started growing again, because of the discriminating formula, proscribed in the agreement. When Yanukovich appealed to Moscow yet again, asking to lower the price, he has faced a row of conditions, one of which was the creation of the consortium in joint management of the gas pipe.
After the long negotiations in 2012, Yanukovich refused from these conditions, and as the rumor has it, one of the reasons for that was the offer that he received from Americans, (from George Soros to be precise,) to pass the control of that pipe to them. And, as the rumor has it, they promised to help him to be re-elected and to get help with the E.U. Association agreement.
Yanukovich turned to the West, and in response got the tough actions from Russia. Moscow threatened him with sanctions, if he’d signed the agreement with the E.U.
With all that, the West didn’t promise any particular help to Ukraine. When looked at closely, the EU association agreement turned out to be financially unfavorable, while the losses incurred by potential Russian sanctions were severe, and no one was interested to compensate them.
Under these circumstances the second term was nowhere in sight for Yanukovich, so he decided that the West has duped him and he turned back to Moscow.
As the result of it all, he negotiated with Moscow lower gas prices and big gas credit, in return for not signing the EU agreement. Unofficially, the negotiations of the joint management of the transit gas pipe were back on the table again.
Just when Moscow was celebrating the geopolitical victory, the second Maidan began. And then – the war, where Russia got involved as well. Russia received Western sanctions for that, and got into the de facto protracted unannounced war with Ukraine.
Obviously, under these circumstances no one could talk about the joint management of the gas pipe any longer. Quite the opposite; as soon as the new government in Kiev took over, A. Yatzenuk announced the preparations for passing the gas pipe under the management of the foreign companies; ( the name of George Soros popped up again.)
At that, because of Western sanctions, the construction of one of the by-passing gas pipes of Russia to Europe ( the South Stream) has failed. Russia has negotiated with big difficulties with Turkey to substitute it with “Turkish stream” and then – with Germany about the completion of the Nord Stream 2. Both of them ( according to Russia’s plan) were supposed to cancel any gas transits via Ukraine. But here Americans stepped up their activity again; they started putting pressure on Turkey and Europeans, so that they’d refuse of both projects, and if the gas transit problems via Ukraine would arise, they would start buying American gas instead.
So the fight for the huge European gas market comes into its final stage.
The results are coming already on the 1st of January. And if the unfinished projects will not allow Russia to export gas in its previous volumes, the results are unpredictable. You already saw what the previous “gas wars” were leading to – the upheavals and even war. What it will lead to this time around, depends on Kiev’s actions, the ability of Kiev to negotiate with Russia to not to stop the transit via Ukraine. But for this, a lot of things should be changed in the Naftogaz, in Ukrainian government itself, and it would be interesting to hear what new president Zelensky thinks about it all himself.
Meanwhile the old Cabinet of Ministers during its last meeting prescribed the organization of the gas transit system to be set as a separate entity, that must be passed under control of foreign companies as soon as possible.
This isn't Russia where the president rules the nation unrestrained. Parliament is always in control, as it was in 2014 when they impeached Yanukovich.
Lol, parliament is not in control, they did not impeach in accordance with their own constitution, no matter how much you wish it to be true. Impeachment under the constitution is a rather long process, and requires more than just parliament.
While everyone is discussing first appointments and decisions made by Zelensky, early election and criminal cases open against Poroshenko and his team, there is not much attention paid to a question, that’s going to define the economic and political agenda till at least the end of this year and may be even longer. I am talking about the January 1st of 2020. This is the date when the current 10-year agreement of gas transit between Russia and Ukraine comes to an end. The very agreement that back in already distant 2009 was signed by Yulia Timoshenko. ( She was sentenced because of it and ended up in jail.) Do you remember this particular photo of hers, in this intricate dress, where she is captured together with Putin? So this agreement is going to end on the night of January 1st. At this point Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of European continent are going to end up in a situation close to a critical point. The consequences can be serious, so they should be given consideration already now. So watch this video till the end, and it will become clear why exactly it’s a case.
So, what is going to happen on the first of January of 2020?
The agreement that was A. Regulating gas supply to Ukraine from Russia,
And B. The process of gas transit from Russia to Europe
is coming to an end.
Nothing indicates to us that with the new head of Nafrogaz ( A. Kobolev,) we will be able to reach any new agreements with Gazprom. Why? Because currently Naftogaz is actively engaged in the recovery of billions of dollars from Gasprom, which, as it were, was awarded to us by the Stockholm arbitration, but these are money that the Russians do not pay us, continuing to fight the decision in the courts. That much is clear, so what is going to happen further on, if the agreement is not going to be renewed before the 1st of January 2020?
Let’s start with transit, since this is probably more important.
Gazprom is currently completing two gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine - this is Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. There are some problems with both of them. Denmark is still delaying the permission to lay a gas pipeline in its territorial waters. And when it comes to the Turks, the Russians are still unable to reach the final agreement on the prices and volumes of gas supplies. But Danes are pressured by the Germans, and Russians keep on negotiating with Turks. On another hand, Americans are trying to prevent the agreements.
So in general, the probability of the pipelines launch is pretty high, but it’s still not a fact that it will take place before the end of this year. However, it does not mean that Gasprom wouldn’t be able to stop the gas transit via Ukraine from the 1st of January. It will be able to, and they are already talking about it in Ukranian Naftogaz. The head of the company, A. Kobolev, already announced that at this point Russians are increasing the transit volumes to Europe, creating the additional supplies in European gas storage facilities, so that comes 2020, at least for the first few months Europe wouldn’t be affected by the gas transit problems via Ukraine. So with other words, Moscow is planning to stop the transit, if the new agreement satisfying all sides won’t be reached.
So what will happen if the transit is going to be disconnected?
Number one, Ukraine will lose about three billion dollars a year, which we now receive as payment for transit. Secondly, for technical needs, in order to maintain gas pipelines in working order, it will be necessary to spend an additional several billion cubic meters of gas.
Thirdly and most importantly, big problems will begin with the purchase of gas for domestic consumption. You’ve already heard many times the repeated statements from Poroshenko and Kobolev about the “gas victory†that we’ve achieved, and that for several years already we were buying gas not from Russia but from Europe. This is nonsense, because we make contracts now with European companies instead of Gasprom, but we are buying the very Russian gas, but with surcharges, that partially are going into the pockets of our corrupt Ukrainian officials. So the price fluctuates depending on a season; it’s higher during the summer season and more expensive during winter season.
If the transit of gas through Ukraine ends, it will be very difficult for us to buy excess gas in Europe. Europeans will start saving it for their own needs, so there will be little left for us, and it will be very costly. Therefore Ukraine will fall on hard times. But they will be not easy for Europe either, since it will face the gas shortage. This in turn will affect Russia as well, that will be forced to reduce the gas exports.
So in general, it’s going to be a very complex geopolitical situation, not just economic one. What kind of possible consequences it may produce?
To begin with, let’s start with basic facts; Ukraine does not have huge gas fields, oil and other minerals, that would make our country valuable in the eyes of the major world players. The only things we have, is our fertile land and the gas transit pipe. We will talk about the land separately another time, but for now let’s talk about the gas transit pipe.
After Ukraine just gained independence, 100% of Russian gas transit to Europe passed through us. Now it is much less, but nonetheless these are still significant volumes. Gazprom exports gas worth tens of billions of dollars a year via Ukraine. This is more than half of Russia's defense budget. A huge amount that critically affects the Russian budget and the economy in general.
And that’s why this gas pipe was always the point of concern not only for Russia, but it was attracting the attention of the West; Americans in particular. They understood that getting control of that gas pipe, they could control Russian economy.
And that’s why this gas pipe became the geopolitical curse of Ukraine. And that’s why this control of gas flow to Europe became the reason for bigger and bigger upheavals, and sometimes – even war. Let’s look at what happened during the last 20 years.
In 2000 Russia has launched the first gas pipe bypassing Ukraine, Yamal -Western Europe via Belorussia. Soon after that Vladimir Putin met with then president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, and by September 2000 the agreement has been reached to create the consortium of the gas pipe control with Russia’s participation. Soon after that the chain of strange events followed.
First, the journalist Georgy Gongadze miraculously disappeared. Then his body has been discovered near Kiev. Then Alexander Moroz publicized his famous audio recording with the voice of L. Kuchma. The big movement “Ukraine without Kuchma†has started. The movement has been suppressed somehow, but Kuchma’s rating has plunged, while the rating of the pro-Western minster V. Yushenko started sharply growing.
Many saw the future president in him, and the protracted political crisis began.
In 2002 Putin and Kuchma returned again to the negotiations of the possible consortium for gas pipe control, they invited Germany to participate in it, but the negotiations were not all that enthusiastic, since everyone understood that during the upcoming elections of 2004 V. Yushenko could win, and all the agreements could be cancelled out.
During the second round of elections, V. Yanukovich ( supported by Moscow) has won. But V. Yushenko and his supporters started the first Maidan, ( or as it has been referred to “The Orange Revolution.â€)
They prevailed in setting the third round of elections, where Victor Yushenko has won. So the idea of the consortium for joint management of the oil pipe temporarily died.
Russia became actively engaged into building the pipe routs by-passing Ukraine, while raising the gas price for Ukraine, using the incompetent actions of the Ukrainian government, that basically broke the beneficial for it contract, signed back in Kuchma times.
After yet another “gas war†Yulia Timoshenko signed the new, very hurtful for Ukraine contract, which significantly raised the gas price for Ukraine.
Victor Yanukovich, who became the new president of Ukraine in 2010, first brought this price down in exchange of extending the agreement on Russia’s lease of military base in Crimea for its Black Sea fleet; (the Kharkov Agreement.)
But then the price started growing again, because of the discriminating formula, proscribed in the agreement. When Yanukovich appealed to Moscow yet again, asking to lower the price, he has faced a row of conditions, one of which was the creation of the consortium in joint management of the gas pipe.
After the long negotiations in 2012, Yanukovich refused from these conditions, and as the rumor has it, one of the reasons for that was the offer that he received from Americans, (from George Soros to be precise,) to pass the control of that pipe to them. And, as the rumor has it, they promised to help him to be re-elected and to get help with the E.U. Association agreement.
Yanukovich turned to the West, and in response got the tough actions from Russia. Moscow threatened him with sanctions, if he’d signed the agreement with the E.U.
With all that, the West didn’t promise any particular help to Ukraine. When looked at closely, the EU association agreement turned out to be financially unfavorable, while the losses incurred by potential Russian sanctions were severe, and no one was interested to compensate them.
Under these circumstances the second term was nowhere in sight for Yanukovich, so he decided that the West has duped him and he turned back to Moscow.
As the result of it all, he negotiated with Moscow lower gas prices and big gas credit, in return for not signing the EU agreement. Unofficially, the negotiations of the joint management of the transit gas pipe were back on the table again.
Just when Moscow was celebrating the geopolitical victory, the second Maidan began. And then – the war, where Russia got involved as well. Russia received Western sanctions for that, and got into the de facto protracted unannounced war with Ukraine.
Obviously, under these circumstances no one could talk about the joint management of the gas pipe any longer. Quite the opposite; as soon as the new government in Kiev took over, A. Yatzenuk announced the preparations for passing the gas pipe under the management of the foreign companies; ( the name of George Soros popped up again.)
At that, because of Western sanctions, the construction of one of the by-passing gas pipes of Russia to Europe ( the South Stream) has failed. Russia has negotiated with big difficulties with Turkey to substitute it with “Turkish stream†and then – with Germany about the completion of the Nord Stream 2. Both of them ( according to Russia’s plan) were supposed to cancel any gas transits via Ukraine. But here Americans stepped up their activity again; they started putting pressure on Turkey and Europeans, so that they’d refuse of both projects, and if the gas transit problems via Ukraine would arise, they would start buying American gas instead.
So the fight for the huge European gas market comes into its final stage.
The results are coming already on the 1st of January. And if the unfinished projects will not allow Russia to export gas in its previous volumes, the results are unpredictable. You already saw what the previous “gas wars†were leading to – the upheavals and even war. What it will lead to this time around, depends on Kiev’s actions, the ability of Kiev to negotiate with Russia to not to stop the transit via Ukraine. But for this, a lot of things should be changed in the Naftogaz, in Ukrainian government itself, and it would be interesting to hear what new president Zelensky thinks about it all himself.
Meanwhile the old Cabinet of Ministers during its last meeting prescribed the organization of the gas transit system to be set as a separate entity, that must be passed under control of foreign companies as soon as possible.
Do you really think Russia is going to try to strangle the Ukraine when it comes to gas? People need to keep warm, Russia is not going to win any friends if people are shivering in their apartments. On the other hand the Ukropeans can use it as a tool to control people and use it to leverage Russia. Force Russia to shut off the gas by being unreasonable then spin it to make themselves look like victims.
Do you really think Russia is going to try to strangle the Ukraine when it comes to gas? People need to keep warm, Russia is not going to win any friends if people are shivering in their apartments. On the other hand the Ukropeans can use it as a tool to control people and use it to leverage Russia. Force Russia to shut off the gas by being unreasonable then spin it to make themselves look like victims.
Let me put question in a different way may be...
When the West is imposing sanctions on Russia, what is it trying to achieve exactly?
I would guess the worsening economic situation for the Russian people, so that they would vote (the inconvenient for the West) government out of the office?
Agreed. That's exactly what the west is trying to do with Russia. That and slow the growth of Russia across the board and weaken it any way they can.
Ukrainians know better though as do Russians, they know how this works. Everybody does. I don't see the Russians cutting off the gas without very good reason though, Putin and his people are just not that stupid. I can however see the crazies in Kiev providing those very good reasons though. The population has been passive in Ukraine. I think they have found ways around the hardships placed in their paths but living without the basics is another thing.
I think the Ukies are going to see how far they can push next year.
Agreed. That's exactly what the west is trying to do with Russia. That and slow the growth of Russia across the board and weaken it any way they can. Ukrainians know better though as do Russians, they know how this works. Everybody does. I don't see the Russians cutting off the gas without very good reason though, Putin and his people are just not that stupid. I can however see the crazies in Kiev providing those very good reasons though. The population has been passive in Ukraine. I think they have found ways around the hardships placed in their paths but living without the basics is another thing.
I think the Ukies are going to see how far they can push next year.
I suspect it's not the case, but this requires more proofs and more translations I guess)))
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Gas wars; Russia, US, EU and Ukraine.
