So.
It's not over till it's over and this is the catch 22 that I see, even after the latest negotiations between Biden and Putin, that were conducted ( and ended) in civilized manner as it should be.
The caveat here is the same Donbass question ( LDNR) that haunts now Putin ( and everyone else involved,) because he didn't make the right decision on the chess board to begin with, and didn't take over the Eastern Ukraine when he took over Crimea.
The betrayal never pays well, as in the case of 30 silver coins.
So back in 2014/2015 (don't remember the details now, since there were Minsk I and Minsk II agreements,) when new Ukrainian government was trying to advance militarily to the rebellious Eastern areas, the *Russians* ( be that the Donbass rebels or the actual Russian soldiers - I don't care at this point,) counter-attacked, and handed the Ukrainians their a***es on the plate, after which Poroshenko asked for peace. ( He didn't want the further advancement of the Eastern forces, since the situation was unstable in Ukraine anyways, with the new presidency being unpopular in the South Eastern regions.)
This distaste for the new government in the South-Eastern regions was used by Putin ( or he rather hoped to use it for his own advantage) as the future *road map* for the Ukrainian "decentralization" or Federalization, with Donbass region leading in anti-Poroshenko movement among other South-Eastern regions. ( That's why Lugansk republic was separated from Donetsk republic by the order coming from Moscow, in order to have more different federal subjects in Ukraine, loyal to Russia. ( To Russia, not necessarily Putin, as it was a case. There is a difference here.)
Which was a no-no thing for Ukrainian nationalists hailing from the Western part of the country, that wanted to establish their nationalistic state from Lvov to Donetsk, while expelling or killing everyone who dared to resist.
And one of the major provisions of the new peace agreement made in the
"Normandy format" ( i.e. with participation of France and Germany,) was precisely that - the "special Donbass status," which granted it to vote for its own local authorities, independent from Kiev.
Only on this condition Donbass (sorry LDNR) would remain in Ukraine.
But that's precisely what was driving the Ukrainian nationalists mad - this particular point, plus the fact that Russia wouldn't pass the control of Ukrainian border to Ukraine, until this point ( among with few others) would be implemented, and Ukrainian constitution would be changed in order to accommodate the special status for Donbass.
They considered it as the ultimate victory of Putin, being weary of the future gradual disintegration of Ukraine, since the other South Eastern regions that hated Ukrainian nationalism could have followed the disintegration process.
And that's why the "Minsk agreement" stalled for many years, while the Ukrainian government hoped that it could be changed with time ( sure the West can see the pitfalls of it, they reasoned, the "Russian aggression," its "interference in internal Ukrainian affairs" and the rest.)
They hoped all these years that the West would put enough of pressure on Putin, so that he would cave in, and change these particular provisions ( the special status of Donbass and thus Federalization of Ukraine.)
But Putin didn't budge, as much as Ukrainian government squealed and complained to the Western powers.
Putin in his turn couldn't act any different, since the whole Donbass issue became a national affair for Russia, and he couldn't betray the region for the second time.
This would make him to look like a loser, while he was trying to come across as a winner, as the result of all these manipulations, that costed dearly to Donbass people ( and Eastern Ukraine in general.)
Meanwhile, growing desperate, Kiev ( or rather Ukrainian nationalist military forces that were stationed on the LDNR border,) were becoming more and more brazen, viciously shelling the uncontrolled territories, targeting the civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves.
They felt invincible at that, since the Western governments were remaining silent over this growing aggression and violation of the peace treaty, and as much as Putin/Russian government was trying to bring it to the attention of the Western governments lately, this was falling on the deaf ears, since Russia was already appointed as the "guilty party."
Even after Kiev amassed its troops on the LDNR borders threatening the invasion, in clear violation of any peace agreements.
At this point Putin said enough is enough and moved HIS troops to Ukrainian border.
This finally got the Western attention and Biden was willing to sit down for the negotiations.
Which was long overdue.
So what's the result of it all in perspective?
The negotiations will go on, Russians are willing to bring the US on board of the Normandy format ( since Ukraine is a puppet state and the commands are coming from Washington anyway, they reason,)
but the issue of Donbass and the breakaway republics will be back on the table the way it is.
Because this issue didn't go anywhere, and it's not Moscow but Kiev that's in violation of the Minsk agreement - the provisions of it.
Yet, if Moscow will have it its way, that's the ultimate loss of game for Ukrainian nationalists/post-Maidan government in Kiev, and the reaction will follow I assume.
( That's the scoop of it, if I won't go any further into this whole official bottom line of "no more NATO expansion to Russia's borders.")
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". But with sanctions removed now it'll be just business as usual - not as profitable as with sanctions. Too bad. Please, can Russia ask for more sanctions?
