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Why would the Russian economy take a huge hit? It’s a natural resources economy. Germany will buy all the natural gas the Russians can pump to them. The west will buy any and all oil they produce and all the minerals they dig out of the ground. The west doesn’t have the political will to send troops. The United States will only deploy military where they have overwhelming superiority. US troops in the Ukraine is a political impossibility.
So I think Putin will grab as much of the Ukraine as he can get away with, what’s left of the Ukraine will be forced to sign a sham “peace treaty”, and it will be business as usual a year from now.
Roughly 70% of their exports go to the West. 50% to Europe alone. They heavily depend on Europe. They mainly use pipelines to export their oil and gas. Even if they found new customers for their gas/oil, the pipelines would take years to build. The largest liquified gas exporters are Qatar and the U.S. They can fill the gap. If they can't sell their gas, you will see an economic collapse worse than what you saw after 1990.
Eastern European politicians are just puppets installed by the west, no politician "supporting" russia will be allowed by washington/brusells since 1989.
"5 Million Russian Citizens Left Russia Under Putin: Young, well-educated Russians are seeking a better life abroad".. and polls show that far more young Russians want to leave, especially those with better education. Why would so many young and well-educated Russians desire to leave the Great and Glorious Republic of Putinstan - the land of milk, honey and freedom? I wonder how many Americans and Europeans immigrate to Russia?
Why would the Russian economy take a huge hit? It’s a natural resources economy. Germany will buy all the natural gas the Russians can pump to them. The west will buy any and all oil they produce and all the minerals they dig out of the ground. The west doesn’t have the political will to send troops. The United States will only deploy military where they have overwhelming superiority. US troops in the Ukraine is a political impossibility.
So I think Putin will grab as much of the Ukraine as he can get away with, what’s left of the Ukraine will be forced to sign a sham “peace treaty”, and it will be business as usual a year from now.
I am gaining the impression that the Russians will maintain close control over the eastern border, the southern littoral, and possibly the entire Dnieper valley up to Belarus, including Kiev, perhaps in the framework of a peace treaty and new federal constitution, sham or not, while the western half centered around Lviv will come into the western fold supervised closely by Poland and the US, with some help from Hungary and Slovakia; German businesses will operate, but the Germans won’t be allowed to make any foreign policy and military decisions.
And therein will lie a Cold Peace/War. So, yes, on that basis, business as usual a year from now.
I am gaining the impression that the Russians will maintain close control over the eastern border, the southern littoral, and possibly the entire Dnieper valley up to Belarus, including Kiev, perhaps in the framework of a peace treaty and new federal constitution, sham or not, while the western half centered around Lviv will come into the western fold supervised closely by Poland and the US, with some help from Hungary and Slovakia; German businesses will operate, but the Germans won’t be allowed to make any foreign policy and military decisions.
And therein will lie a Cold Peace/War. So, yes, on that basis, business as usual a year from now.
Just an impression, I really don’t know.
I can gurantee you that the Polish will not be part of of any "Ribbentrop Molotov"-like pact.
I mean wtf have you been smoking?
If the Ukranians don't manage to repel the Russians, then I am sure the Polish along with its neighbours will support rebels until Ukraine is completely free again.
I can gurantee you that the Polish will not be part of of any "Ribbentrop Molotov"-like pact.
I mean wtf have you been smoking?
If the Ukranians don't manage to repel the Russians, then I am sure the Polish along with its neighbours will support rebels until Ukraine is completely free again.
It's funny..
Poles sleep and see how to grab a piece of Ukraine around Lviv.. Have you ever heard of "East Kresy"?
All my saved live webcams showing border crossings are not working now. Webcams showing cities in Ukraine are off too.
Here is one showing the border with Ukraine at Budomierz.
The cars you see are on Polish site waiting to pickup families, friends and anyone crossing the border to Poland. Little earlier there were several busses, now I can see just one left. https://lookcam.pl/budomierz-przejsc...strony-polski/
Google Ukraine map to see the traffic on the roads to Poland.
Russia has blocked Twitter and threatened to do the same with Facebook.
Circumvention for those in Russia is currently possible using VPN services, which can work around government-imposed restrictions.
" Ukraine open to talks but not Russian ultimatums, Zellensky’s advisor says
Kyiv has denied suggestions from the Kremlin that it is refusing to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia, but says it is not ready to accept ultimatums or unacceptable conditions.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenkskyy, told the Reuters news agency that Ukraine has prepared a negotiating position but was being confronted with impractical negotiating conditions from Moscow.
“It was yesterday that the aggressive actions of the armed forces of the Russian Federation escalated, up to evening and night mass air and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities,” he said. “We consider such actions only an attempt to break Ukraine and force it to accept categorically unacceptable conditions.”"
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